The Philadelphia Phillies have been the best team in the majors since the trade deadline, going 30-15 in their last 45 games. They took two out of three from the Dodgers earlier this week, marking their sixth straight series victory. Bryce Harper has homered five times this month, giving him 27 homers overall this season. He is 4-for-9 with a homer in his career against Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, who he is facing during the Friday MLB schedule.
The MLB HR odds have Harper listed at +480 to go yard on Friday, which is one of our MLB best HR bets of the day. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 27.25 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season, calling two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 19:
Willy Adames, Giants (+375)
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+320)
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+480)
Parlay these picks for +10862 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)
MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/19
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Willy Adames, Giants (+375, BetMGM)
Adames is hitless in his last 4 games, but the model still finds value here due to his slugging numbers vs. left-handed pitching. He has 11 HRs in 43 games where the opposing pitcher is a lefty. Kershaw has given up just 1 HR in his last 11 starts, but he hasn’t been at his best lately. We set the line at +276 for Adames to homer, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+320, FanDuel)
Kurtz could have some extra motivation playing in his home state of Pennsylvania. He’s posted a 1.167 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Left-handed batters have a solid .762 OPS against Mitch Keller, along with 10 HRs. We set Kurtz’s line at +280 to homer, and you can bet this prop at FanDuel to get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of at least $5 wins:
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+480, FanDuel)
Harper is 4-for-9 with a HR in his career against Ryne Nelson, and FanDuel is offering by far the best price here with the consensus line at +380. Harper has an .897 OPS with 17 HRs in 57 games since the All-Star break. We set Harper’s line at +350 to hit a HR. You can get $300 in bonus bet if your first $5+ bet wins at FanDuel:
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Friday:
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.