Copyright yardbarker
The base numbers are a little concerning. Across 39 games, he has just four goals and 18 assists for 22 points. That’s an eight-goal, 46-point pace over a full season whilst playing north of 20 minutes each night. To put that in perspective, among forwards with at least 500 minutes of ice time in this span, his point-scoring rate ranks in the 23rd percentile. His goal-scoring rate is in the 3rd percentile. In other words, that’s essentially fourth-line offensive production. It gets worse. At 5-on-5 play, he has been outscored 50–34. While that can be partially blamed on an unsustainably low PDO (sum of save and shooting percentage; a luck-based metric), he hasn’t been capable of driving a line. When separated from Sean Couturier and Matvei Michkov, he’s been outscored 18–3 with an anemic 39.79% expected goal share. My eye test backs this up. Konecny’s impact has felt pretty insignificant over the past few months. Once a true play-driver for the top line, he’s kind of just “there” now. He doesn’t make a lot of offensive plays, and the defense has never been a strength—he has the fourth-most goals allowed among forwards in their team’s last 39 games. Is This Foreshadowing Konecny’s Future? Before Konecny even signed his extension, I warned against an eight-year term. The reasoning was simple: Father Time comes for everyone. I compared him to Cam Atkinson, a member of the Flyers at the time, cautioning that their futures could be similar. Here is their point production by age, side by side.
