By Ruth Mosalski
Copyright walesonline
The summer recess is over for Welsh Senedd members and as they return to Cardiff Bay on Tuesday rarely has there been such a crucial period. The physical Senedd building is in a state of flux with work ongoing in the main debating chamber to prepare for a new-look Welsh Parliament from May. And that’s a pretty good metaphor for the state of the whole institution right now. From the outside the Senedd building looks exactly the same with the sun glistening on its glass exterior. But inside? It’s a different story. Because from May the Senedd will have 96, not 60, members and all the signs so far from Welsh-specific polling suggest that it may well be a heck of a change at the top. So far polls have projected that Labour will lose its grasp on power with Plaid and Reform UK as frontrunners. It is very much a period of change in terms of the faces that will be on the Senedd benches . We know, from Labour ranks at least, that lots of familiar faces won’t be returning. Two former First Ministers, Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething, won’t return and nor will cabinet big hitters Julie James, Jane Hutt, and Lesley Griffiths. Julie Morgan, with her decades of experience in Wales and Westminster too, will leave frontline politics. But there is an added likelihood of an influx of new politicians and a huge number could be from a party that currently has a sole Senedd member – and she has only recently defected from the Tories. There are conversations happening in Welsh Government and the Senedd Commission about preparing for a new, bigger, and potentially very different-looking Senedd. Senior cabinet member Julie James made it clear in an interview with us over the summer that the government is preparing for a changing of the guard , which is telling in itself. Politically there is much to play for because the parties are well aware the election is happening soon. Plaid Cymru is giddy with polling numbers but now has a long eight months to deliver on those numbers. Labour is looking down the barrel of an election hammering not only in May but potentially in a crucial by-election next month and Reform UK has everything to win and nothing to lose. It’s set to be a rollercoaster ride, and here are some of the things you should look out for. The session on Tuesday will start with politics put to one side for an hour at least because there will be tributes to Hefin David, the Caerphilly MS who died in August . His party colleagues and those who worked with him on various committees will be sharing stories. It is the first opportunity for politicians to all come together, given many were away for his funeral, to share their tributes. In August Laura Anne-Jones defected from the Tories to Reform making her the first Reform UK Senedd member. The way she did it – not telling her party until she joined Nigel Farage at a press conference at the Royal Welsh Show – really upset some of her colleagues, especially those who counted her as a friend and those who had stuck by her through various questions about her conduct. On Tuesday they will all be in the same room for the same time. A leaked version of a standards report into allegations about her expenses, and a comment made in a WhatsApp group, emerged last week and her colleagues will on Tuesday meet to discuss that report – and no doubt a key question will be the whole process itself given reports are being leaked. One thing looming large is that on October 23 the people of Caerphilly will be voting for the Senedd member they want to succeed Hefin David. By-elections aren’t always the most gripping of things but this one is crucial. If Labour lose the seat it means passing a budget – probably the most important thing a government has to do – will be in jeopardy. The First Minister told the BBC this weekend her party was throwing “everything” at it. That will open her up to questions if they lose because if you throw everything at a single seat and lose what does that mean when you are fighting on 16 fronts in a few months time? Eluned Morgan keeps wanting to talk about her “Welsh Red Way” – something she coined in a speech in the spring to set her apart from unpopular decisions being made by her colleagues in London. She isn’t the first Welsh Labour leader to do that but it has opened her up to criticism because when Labour was campaigning for the July 2024 election it was all about how two Labour governments, one in London and one in Cardiff, would be good for Wales. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here . Now, in the face of awful polling for Keir Starmer, and cut through of deeply unpopular UK Government policies, she is trying to carve out a difference between her party and the London one. The Senedd elections won’t be something on the agenda for most people yet at least but in the world of Welsh politics the tribulations of who has been picked as candidate where, of polling, of the potential make-up of the Senedd on May 8 next year, is the only topic in town. However there is a growing shift in the UK media and in the number of non-Welsh politicians realising that there are devolved elections in Wales and Scotland in May and both are questioning whether, after decades of influence here, Labour is in serious peril. That message getting through to the senior figures in England will be a relief to Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour because it needs all the help, resources, and knowledge it can get to fight off the double-fronted threat of Reform UK from one side and Plaid Cymru from the other. Plaid Cymru may be doing well in polls but both it and Reform UK have to now deliver. Plaid Cymru needs to grow in places it hasn’t had a presence before and Reform UK for all its noise is coming from a standing start. To go from no MSs in August to a possible 30-something by next May would be monumental but in its former guise the party has seen what happens if you don’t vet or get the right people – it has to learn from the previous Ukip mistakes.
