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You go to war with the army you have, not the one you want. Such is the same with elections: You vote as existing laws specify, not by the laws you wish existed. With good reasons and principles, Republicans generally are skeptical of a long, drawn-out voting “Election Month” and the risk of ballot custody breakdowns during mail-in voting. But Virginia has a Democrat-led Legislature and tends to vote Left, and Republicans are wising up. As October drew to a close, Virginia early voting in some areas continued to hold the same trend of favoring Republican-leaning areas that was seen through late September. While Virginia primary voting turnout data from earlier this year favored Democrat-led areas, in the general election, early voting in most state House districts is favoring Republicans. This bodes well for the slate of conservative candidates who face headwinds typical of Virginia’s off-year elections. However, estimates of the partisanship of early voters from The Virginia Public Access Project show most early ballots so far are from likely Democrat voters. Unfortunately, while likely GOP voters lead in early in-person ballots, likely Democrat voters lead in mail-in ballots by a larger margin. Virginia holds elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general the year after a presidential election. Often, the party opposite that of the presidential victor assumes the Virginia Executive Mansion in Richmond. “Republican identifiers are likely becoming more comfortable with voting in advance than they were previously, a trend we’ve seen in other states as well,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics, told The Daily Signal. “Republicans have become more open to voting in advance, particularly early in-person, and the best vote method type for Republicans is likely to be Election Day, although the difference between early in-person and Election Day was smaller in 2024 than it was in 2021.” Early voter turnout in Virginia is much higher than four years ago. As of Oct. 30—or five days before Election Day—early balloting is up nearly 25% from the same time last year and already exceeds the final total number of ballots cast in the last Virginia gubernatorial election in 2021. Early voting data from the Virginia Department of Elections shows that among the top 20 Virginia State House Districts for ballots cast, just six are in Democrat-learning or stronghold areas, while 12 are in GOP-led areas, and two are in tossup, competitive districts. Among the bottom 20 Virginia State House Districts so far in early voting, just six are Republican-leaning or Republican strongholds, but 14 are Democrat-leaning or Democrat strongholds. While an imperfect measure, it gives at least some indication of voter fervor and intensity. Kondik shared district by district vote totals for Virginia’s 11 federal congressional districts in 2024 from The Downballot, a left-leaning election site: “As you can see [from the chart above], the district that actually produced the most presidential votes was VA-01, which is a GOP-leaning, albeit competitive, district,” Kondik noted. “The second-highest was VA-05, which is the third-most Republican district in the state. The one that produced the least is VA-03, which is one of the bluest districts in the state.” Comparing the 2024 results with Virginia 2025 turnout so far, Republican-won congressional seats are five of the 11 seats, and all five of those U.S. House districts currently have more early voting ballots cast this year compared to 2021 comprehensive, final totals. That is the case in just one of the six U.S. House districts held by Democrats (Congressional District 11). Even though the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls currently favors the Virginia governor’s race for Democrat Abigail Spanberger by 8.9 points over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the race is largely still within the margin of error. No matter who wins on Tuesday, continued strong early voter turnout by conservatives in future elections will make all the difference between whether liberty thrives or takes a blow in our beautiful commonwealth. Carrie Sheffield, a Virginia voter, is author of ”Motorhome Prophecies: A Journey of Healing and Forgiveness” and program manager of Healthy Faith. We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.
