Do facts matter in Britain’s immigration debate? Reform UK leader Nigel Farage says that mass deportations and abolition of settled status will save the country £234 billion ($316 billion), laying out his party’s plan to nullify the effects of the “Boris wave” of post-Brexit migration. How much traction this gains with the public can be taken as a measure of the UK’s willingness to head down the path of post-truth Trumpian politics, as well as its ability to learn from experience.
The figure is the estimated lifetime net fiscal cost of the 2021 to 2024 migrant influx. The problem is that it was withdrawn months ago by the authors of the study from which it was taken. That was “Here To Stay? Estimating the Scale and Cost of Long-Term Migration,” from the center-right think tank Centre for Policy Studies. A disclaimer at the start of the paper now reads: “The Office for Budget Responsibility fiscal data contained with this report is the subject of dispute, meaning that the overall cost estimates should not be used.”