We are now four weeks into the season, so we’re starting to see team performances stabilize. As a result, we got six of the top 10 defenses correct this week.
I missed the Packers, who somehow allowed 40 points to the Cowboys on Sunday night. We also got another poor defensive performance from the Bills, and the Vikings failed to deliver against the Steelers. We also saw that the Panthers’ week three performance was a fluke, and the Browns’ defense continues to be a good unit that is likely always going to be hurt by a poor offense continuing to put them in bad spots.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 34 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 20-20
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETIONS PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points allowed per game over the last eight weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
DST WEEK 5 RANKINGS
RankTier One DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING1Minnesota Vikingsvs CLE32Seattle Seahawksvs TB43Detroit Lionsat CIN7
The Vikings are my 3rd-ranked defense overall in my BOD rankings. So far this season, they rank 2nd in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, 2nd in EPA per play allowed, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in turnover rate, and 7th in conversion rate allowed while averaging 11 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. They will now face a Browns offense that gives up an average of 11.8 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Cedric Tillman also suffered a hamstring injury in Week 4, so that could mean Joe Flacco has one less weapon on Sunday. Oh, and the Vikings have already been in Europe since last week, while the Browns have to travel there this week for the game. I feel pretty confident in the Vikings this week.
Seattle is my 4th-ranked defense in my BOD rankings because they rank 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in conversion rate allowed, 6th in turnover rate, and 7th in EPA per play allowed. They’ve averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks and will now get a Bucs offense that got Tristan Wirfs back this week, but will still be without Mike Evans and two starting offensive linemen.
The Lions surged up the BOD rankings this week, which makes sense since their early opponents were so difficult, and then they got the Browns on Sunday. On the season, the Lions rank 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, 8th in turnover rate, and 9th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. This Bengals offense continues to look terrible, and their offensive line is a huge mess. We should note that cornerbacks Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and D.J. Reed (hamstring) both left Sunday’s game with injuries, so we need to keep an eye on them for this week, but the Lions should be a strong play regardless.
RankTier Two DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING4Los Angeles Ramsvs SF55Houston Texansat BAL26Denver Broncosat PHI67Indianapolis Coltsvs LV128Cleveland Brownsvs MIN139Arizona Cardinalsvs TEN18
The Rams rank 4th in turnover rate, 6th in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate, which has allowed them to average 8 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. The 49ers saw Jauan Jennings get hurt on Sunday, and while he was able to return to the game, Ricky Pearsall (knee) was not, so both of those injuries could be a problem on a short week against the Rams on Thursday night.
I generally don’t want to attack the Ravens offense in fantasy, but this season has been a weird one. The Ravens’ defense is so bad that it’s forced their offense to be one-dimensional. Maybe that won’t happen against this bad Texans offense, but the Texans defense ranks 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, 8th in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, and 10th in EPA per play allowed. They average 8 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks, so they feel like a pretty safe unit. However, the biggest news here is that Lamar Jackson (hamstring) left in the fourth quarter and did not return against Kansas City. Similarly, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley left the game with an ankle injury. If those guys miss this week, I will likely keep the Texans here. If either Jackson or Stanley plays, I can see moving the Texans down closer to the bottom of this year.
The Broncos rank 1st in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate, so they have continued to be a strong defense. The Eagles are not an offense we usually like to target because they are a heavy ball-control offense that doesn’t turn the ball over much, but they did lose offensive tackle Lane Johnson to a shoulder injury on Sunday. If he were to miss, I think the Broncos could put up a decent score, but they are here because they are a solid “floor play.”
The Colts are my 12th-ranked defense in BOD thanks to ranking 5th in turnover rate and averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. So much of their success as a fantasy defense is based on turnovers, which makes me nervous, but Geno Smith has two separate three-interception games this season, so this may be the right opponent for the Colts. The Raiders’ offensive line is a mess, so I think we can trust the Colts here.
The Browns’ offense is a joke, but their defense continues to be really strong. They rank 1st in conversion rate allowed, 3rd in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, and 8th in opponents’ scoring rate. Minnesota was already down multiple starting offensive linemen, but right tackle Brian O’Neill had a knee injury on Sunday, and center Ryan Kelly suffered a concussion. Not having either one of them against this Browns defensive line could be a big issue. However, we do have to note that the Browns have to travel to Europe this week while Minnesota is already there. That’s a pretty big advantage.
Cardinals are not top 10 in any of the metrics that I like. However, they are 14th in conversion rate allowed, 16th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 16th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 17th in EPA per play allowed. So if we think of them as like the 15th or so best fantasy defense in a lot of crucial metrics, and then give them a game against a Titans offense that their own quarterback said was “straight ass,” then that feels like a borderline top-ten play to me.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
RankTier Three DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING10Philadelphia Eaglesvs DEN911Tampa Bay Bucsat SEA1012Buffalo Billsvs NE1913Jacksonville Jaguarsvs KC114Kansas City Chiefsat JAX11
The Eagles are my 9th-ranked defense on the season. They rank 3rd in EPA per play allowed and 10th in turnover rate, while averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. However, the Broncos have given up just four fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. I think this is the toughest matchup the Broncos have faced, and they’ll be traveling to Philadelphia, so maybe the Eagles can score 7-9 fantasy points here.
The Bucs rank 5th in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in opponents’ scoring rate on the season, so they have been a solid offense. However, the Seahawks allow just 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and the Bucs suffered plenty of injuries on Sunday with cornerback Jamel Dean (groin/hip), linebacker Haason Reddick (stinger), and defensive lineman Greg Gaines (pec) and Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) getting hurt and not returning to the game. Keep an eye on the practice report because I’d likely move the Bucs down a bit if some of those guys miss.
I know people want to rank the Bills’ higher, but I had them ninth last week, when they were a consensus top-three defense, and I’m going to be lower than consensus this week as well. The Bills rank 4th in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate, but that is the only stat where they are above-average. Yes, they are without Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, and first-round pick Maxwell Hairston, but this defense has had tackling issues for years, and they remain major issues. The Bills will get crucial turnovers when they need them, but this feels like a game that could be a shootout.
The Jaguars are my top-ranked defense of the season so far. I know it’s hard to trust their performance, but they rank 1st in turnover rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th in conversion rate allowed, which has allowed them to average 11.5 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. The opponents haven’t been great, so I’m not fully a believer in the Jaguars, and they did lose defensive end Travon Walker (wrist) and safety Eric Murray (neck) in the win over the 49ers. Walker would be a big loss if he’s not able to suit up on Sunday, but I also just can’t rank the Jags higher against a Chiefs offense that gives up an average of 1.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars only give up three fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, so I don’t see this as a great spot for the Chiefs either, despite them ranking 11th in my BOD rankings.
RankTier Four DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING15San Francisco 49ersat LAR1416Los Angeles Chargersvs WAS1517Washington Commandersat LAC2218Baltimore Ravensvs HOU2919New York Giantsat NO2520Carolina Panthersvs MIA2421Dallas Cowboysat NYJ3222New England Patriotsat BUF20
The 49ers rank 4th in opponents’ scoring rate and 6th in conversion rate allowed, but their pass rush has been below average, and now doesn’t have Nick Bosa. I can’t get excited to play them against a good Rams offense.
The Chargers rank 2nd in conversion rate allowed and 8th in EPA per play allowed, but this Commanders offense is a different animal with Jayden Daniels under center. No, they might not have Terry McLaurin back, but if the Chargers couldn’t put up a top-ten showing against the Giants, then how can we trust them against the Commanders? On the defensive side, the Commanders rank 7th in PFF’s pass rush productivity rate but also look like a fairly average defense. I know the Chargers will be without stud left tackle Joe Alt, but it’s just hard to trust this defense.
Listen, I get not wanting to go near the Ravens defense right now, but I just can’t rank them lower when they’re playing in a must-win game against the worst offensive line in football.
The Panthers and Cowboys also get really plush matchups, but I just had the Panthers defense fail me against the Patriots, and we know how bad the Cowboys defense is, so it’s hard to rank either one higher than this.
RankTier Five DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING23Las Vegas Raidersat IND2324New Orleans Saintsvs NYG2725Miami Dolphinsat CAR3226New York Jetsvs DAL2927Cincinnati Bengalsvs DET2428Tennessee Titansat ARI2829Pittsburgh SteelersBYE530Atlanta FalconsBYE1831Green Bay PackersBYE1932Chicago BearsBYE20
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.