Copyright The Boston Herald
When we talk about the greatest of all time in sports, it can be easy to get out over our skis. A special talent may emerge and everyone is quick to crown them as the GOAT before they’ve had a chance to build the body of work that distinction requires. But when it comes to Shohei Ohtani, that label doesn’t feel premature. Ohtani is one of the most outstanding, unique players in baseball history, a true one-of-one who has routinely made unprecedented feats look easy. He is the only player ever to excel as a hitter and pitcher simultaneously for an extended stretch at the game’s highest level, and his current five-year peak ranks among the most productive in MLB history. There are many around the sport who already feel Ohtani is the best baseball player ever, and there is plenty of evidence to support that, but has he earned the title of GOAT? How does he stack up against guys like Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron, who not only performed at a Hall of Fame level but did so for much longer than Ohtani has so far. Can Ohtani catch those guys if he keeps going at his current rate? And what more does he have to do to solidify his case? Shohei’s current case Even if this season marks the peak of Ohtani’s career, the two-way superstar is still a home run first-ballot Hall of Famer. Ohtani has won Rookie of the Year, is a five-time All-Star and is a heavy favorite to earn his fourth MVP in five seasons later this month. The one year he fell short in 2022 he was runner-up to Aaron Judge, who hit an AL-record 62 home runs, and that season Ohtani also finished fourth in the AL Cy Young vote. Only one player has ever won four or more MVPs, that being Barry Bonds, who won the award seven times. Ohtani has topped 40 home runs and 20 stolen bases in four of the past five years and is the only player in MLB history to hit 50 homers with 50 stolen bases in a season. He now has two consecutive seasons with 50-plus homers and has led his league in OPS three straight years. He is also responsible for several of the greatest individual games in MLB history. Last season he went 6 for 6 with three home runs, 10 RBI and two stolen bases to establish the 50-50 club in a win over the Marlins. In Game 4 of the NLCS he hit three bombs while striking out 10 over six scoreless innings in the Dodgers’ pennant-clinching victory, and Monday’s 18-inning Game 3 World Series marathon, he reached base safely nine times with two homers, two doubles and five walks. All the while he has posted a 3.00 ERA with 670 strikeouts over 528.2 innings as a pitcher. Any amount of pitching production Ohtani accumulates is essentially gravy when it comes to comparing him to other all-time greats. Most of the game’s best hitters never took the mound in a big league game. Even Ruth, who is remembered for being among the small handful of players who succeeded as a pitcher and hitter, was only a true two-way player for two seasons as he transitioned from the mound to the batter’s box. It’s also telling that in the eight years Ohtani has played in MLB nobody else has succeeded in developing into a two-way player at the big league level. Others have tried, but so far the physical and mental stress has proven too much for anyone else to handle. Finally, when it comes to separating the all-time greats, it ultimately comes down to how much you win. Ohtani’s time with the Los Angeles Angels obviously didn’t yield much team success, but Ohtani won a World Series championship his first year with the Dodgers, led the team to a decisive Game 7 this year and also helped lead Japan to one of the most memorable World Baseball Classic titles in the tournament’s history. Add it all up, you have a pretty compelling case even after just eight big league seasons. Bolstering his argument Ohtani’s status as the most talented player ever with an all-time peak isn’t in dispute, but when we judge the game’s greats, we usually start with their career numbers. Did they hit 500 home runs? Did they reach 3,000 hits? How do they measure up on the all-time leaderboards? Ohtani’s ability to stay healthy and continue producing at a high level into his mid-to-late 30s will determine his ultimate legacy. As of today Ohtani has a career batting average of .282 with 1,050 hits, 708 runs scored, 280 home runs, 669 RBI, 165 stolen bases, a .957 OPS and 51.5 wins above replacement. All of those counting stats would rank among the lowest of any player currently enshrined in Cooperstown, but fortunately Ohtani is still only 31 years old and has eight years remaining on his current contract with the Dodgers. What thresholds could realistically be within Ohtani’s reach? Since 2021, when he leveled up from an intriguing talent to an all-time great, Ohtani has averaged approximately 163 hits, 115 runs, 46 home runs, 104 RBI, 27 stolen bases and 9.1 WAR per season. Suppose he sustains that pace for another four seasons, by which point he would be 35, and that would get him to roughly 1,700 hits, 1,160 runs, 460 home runs, 1,080 RBI, 270 stolen bases and 88 WAR with four years left on his deal. Those stats would put Ohtani in rarified air. The only three players to ever reach all of those totals are Bonds, Mays and Alex Rodriguez. Even if we assume Ohtani begins to decline in his late 30s and stops pitching and stealing bases at some point, he would still have a chance to easily clear 500 home runs, 2,300 hits, 1,300 RBI and 100 WAR over the last four years of his Dodgers deal. And again, he also pitches, so whatever numbers he piles up on the mound will just be an added bonus separating himself from the game’s greats. But there’s still one more level Ohtani could reach. Can Ohtani emulate Brady, LeBron? The thing that ultimately elevates Tom Brady and LeBron James above their peers isn’t only their career accolades or their championship success, but their astounding longevity. Brady played until he was 45 years old, and right up until the end he remained a highly productive player who finished runner-up for MVP in his age-44 season. James has been an All-Star in 21 straight seasons and upon making his season debut will become the first player in NBA history to play 23 seasons in the league. Can Ohtani follow in their footsteps? For Ohtani to build an ironclad case as baseball’s all-time GOAT, he will probably need to play at least 20 seasons in MLB. That would require an additional four seasons after his current contract ends, which would take him to age 43. Why would that be significant? Essentially all of the players we consider the best of the best played at least that long. Of the 14 players in MLB history who surpassed 120 career WAR, all but one played at least 20 seasons. The lone exception was Williams, who played 19 but who also lost three full years of his prime while serving in World War II. Ohtani playing that long would be one thing, but if he follows a Brady-like career progression and continues performing at a high level for another 12 seasons, then the sky truly is the limit. Should Ohtani stave off Father Time it’s not crazy to imagine he could finish with 600 or even 700 career home runs. 3,000 hits would absolutely be in play, and if Ohtani can crack 132 career WAR it would put him inside the top 10 all-time, right up there with Ruth, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Bonds, Mays, Ty Cobb, Aaron, Roger Clemens and Tris Speaker. With a career resume like that, on top of the fact that Ohtani dominated as a two-way player in an era where the level of competition is the best in the game’s history, his status as baseball’s GOAT would be hard to dispute. The suggestion that Ohtani might be just getting started feels incomprehensible, but then again so is everything else he’s accomplished so far. Obviously there’s no telling what the future holds, but if there is anyone who can defy logic and push the limits of what’s possible on a baseball diamond, it’s Ohtani.
