Copyright scotsman
Like booking a flight to Madrid when you’re wasted at two in the morning, Andy Burnham seems a good idea. So long as you don’t think too hard and, instead, concentrate on the vibes, the former MP – now Manchester Mayor – has a lot going for him. He’s affable, energetic, and does passable approximations of bluff common sense, working class righteousness, and sad-eyed sincerity. But look at Burnham in the cold light of day and the flaws become apparent. His insistence last week that “We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond market” may have struck a chord with those who harbour romantic notions of smashing the “establishment” but it was hopelessly naive. We can no more ignore the market and its impact than we can the turning of the seasons. The bond market does not care about the beliefs of Andy Burnham. Last week, as MPs prepared to descend on Liverpool for their annual conference – which starts today – Burnham told interviewers he had been urged by a number of MPs to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for his party’s leadership. Of course, Burnham has never been shy about describing his own brilliance, but the timing of his latest round of self-promotion really is remarkable, not just for its boldness but for the fact that talk of a challenge against the Prime Minister seems perfectly understandable. After all, just 15 months ago, Starmer led Labour to a landslide General Election victory. Today, speculation about the Prime Minister’s future simply will not abate. For this, Starmer has nobody but himself to blame. In opposition, he appeared to offer a calm and stable alternative to the chaos of the Tories. In office, he’s a dog-that-caught-the-car Prime Minister, seemingly unsure of what to do with the power he wields. On top of Starmer’s apparent lack of any kind of vision, there are serious doubts over his judgement. On policy (see, for example, that early announcement of plans to scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance) he has made decisions which, in the current political climate, were always going to play badly. More recently, there have been questions about his integrity. After Downing Street officials saw emails revealing the close friendship between US Ambassador Peter Mandelson and the deceased child-trafficker and predatory paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer continued to defend his colleague right up until the point at which he had no choice but to sack him. Andy Burnham – a man who has already lost two Labour leadership bids, one to Ed Miliband and one to Jeremy Corbyn – may well think his time has come but it is hard to see how he might topple Starmer. The rules of the Labour Party state that the leader must be an MP. So, before launching any kind of challenge against Starmer, Burnham would require to find himself a seat at Westminster. Some of Burnham’s colleagues may well have urged him to challenge Starmer but I don’t see anyone volunteering to resign their seats to force a by-election. And, even if some poor dupe could be persuaded to immolate their career on the altar of a two-time loser’s ambitions, Burnham would then have to persuade Labour’s National Executive Committee – stuffed with Starmer allies – to approve him as a candidate. After that, Burnham would have to win a by-election in a difficult climate for Labour and then, as an MP, find 80 colleagues willing to nominate him as a candidate for the leadership. Having kickstarted a leadership contest, Burnham would then (assuming Labour MPs did not agree on a coronation and other candidates emerged) have to win it. The idea that this slow-motion political assassination is going to happen is fanciful but at least we know Andy Burnham’s long-held conviction that the solution is Andy Burnham burns strong. During a BBC interview, the Prime Minister was brutally – and entertainingly – dismissive of his potential rival. After saying he would not get “drawn in to commenting on the personal ambitions of the mayor”, Starmer compared economic proposals made by Burnham to the policies of blink-and-you’ll-miss-her Tory Prime Minister, Liz Truss, who wrought havoc on the economy during her 49-day period in power. Trouble is not brewing for Starmer solely in the North West of England. Here in Scotland, there is growing frustration among Labour MPs and MSPs about the impact of UK Government decisions on the party’s popularity. Not so long ago, polls showed Scottish Labour closing in fast on the SNP. Some even suggested Anas Sarwar was on course to become the next First Minister, bringing to an end almost two decades of nationalist dominance. Today, Scottish Labour trails the SNP by 17 points and Sarwar struggles to take control of the political narrative. Many blame Starmer for this, complaining that the Prime Minister has made a series of announcements without thinking about the impact they would have on Labour’s popularity in Scotland. Sarwar’s announcement last year that a future Labour Government at Holyrood would reinstate the Winter Fuel Payment, newly subject to means-testing after a UK government decision, was delivered through gritted teeth. The Scottish Labour leader is, says one colleague, frustrated that, having “done everything that was asked of him and more to sort the party out in Scotland, he’s an afterthought to Downing Street”. Just fifteen months after an election that saw Labour win a majority of 174, Starmer should be all-powerful. Think of Tony Blair in his pomp. Instead, he has frittered away political capital to little end. Andy Burnham may not be in a position to topple Sir Keir Starmer but the Prime Minister remains vulnerable. And If the devolved elections next year go badly for Labour, I’d expect a more credible challenger to emerge.
