By RCP,Tarren Bragdon

Copyright realclearpolitics

Its a powerful argument: Republican-led cuts to government handouts will endanger the partys congressional majorities.

The claim nearly derailed President Trumps Medicaid reforms in the spring. Now a slew of organizations are promoting polls and running ads making the same argument about the expiration of Joe Bidens expanded ObamaCare subsidies at the end of the year. Some Republicans are wondering if they should vote to keep the subsidies before the Sept. 30 budget deadline. As for Medicaid, some Republicans are trying to repeal the reforms they just passed.

But the argument is hogwash, as new polling from my organization shows.

The claim assumes that these government handouts are largely flowing to Republican working-class and low-income voters, but thats not true. Whether its ObamaCares expanded subsidies or Medicaid, recipients overwhelmingly vote Democrat. Keeping the spending spigot open would actually create a permanent power base for the left, even as it plunges America deeper into debt and a culture of dependency.

We found that among the recipients of ObamaCare subsidies, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a more than 2-to-1 margin  52% to 24%. When you look at these individuals voting habits, the lefts advantage is even more pronounced, with 64% voting Democrat. These arent Republican voters. They arent even swing voters. Theyre Democrat voters, full stop. And Democrats gain more voters as people get on the government dole. Sure enough, the expanded ObamaCare subsidies eliminated income limits, hooking millions more people on federal handouts.

Putting aside the fiscal foolishness of the policy, its a guaranteed vote-getter for Democrats, not the GOP. The Biden administration tacitly acknowledged that by turning the ObamaCare exchanges into a voter-registration machine in 2024. Democrats made the same self-interested plea to keep handouts flowing in 2021, pushing for a permanent expanded Child Tax Credit that pushed millions of parents out of work. My organizations polling shows that by refusing to join with Democrats to extend it, Republicans likely flipped the House in 2022.

Medicaid is no different. Democrats have a 32.6-point margin among low-income voters on the program. Yet among low-income voters who arent on Medicaid, Democrats have a miniscule margin of barely two points. For the GOP, there isnt just a moral or fiscal necessity of helping Medicaid recipients move from welfare to work. Republicans should also realize that helping people leave this welfare program also helps the partys electoral prospects. If youre permanently hooked on handouts, youll vote for the party that stands for handouts  and thats far and away the Democrats. But if youre freed, youre more likely to vote for the party that helps you rise, and Republicans are the only real party of opportunity.

President Trump and Republicans in Congress were both politically smart and practically wise to reform Medicaid. They must maintain their reforms in their next reconciliation bill, which could come before the end of the year. Yet the more urgent need is to let Bidens expanded ObamaCare subsidies disappear. If they vote in September to extend the temporary pandemic-era payments or make them permanent, theyll effectively lock in a heavily Democratic constituency, even as they deepen government dependency. Thats a double wrong for Republicans, hurting themselves and the country.

In a perfect world, these policies would be judged on a principled basis, without politics or polling entering the picture. For instance, ObamaCares expanded subsidies are fraudulently being paid to 6.4 million people, and if theyre made permanent, theyll add $450 billion to the deficit  reasons enough to bid them farewell. As for Medicaid, the program has effectively abandoned its core mission, spending tens of billions of dollars a year on able-bodied adults while crowding out seniors, the disabled, and vulnerable kids. Its a broken system that demands fundamental reform.

But we dont live in a perfect world, and policies and politics cant be divorced. If Republicans are going to view welfare reforms through the lens of political calculation, they shouldnt cloud their vision with polling fictions. Cutting government handouts wont hurt Republicans. To the contrary: What will hurt the party  to say nothing of the country  is keeping the taxpayer money flowing. Thats exactly what Democrats want them to do.