By Angelica Peebles

Copyright cnbc

Skovronsky thinks that pills could eventually become the primary way that obesity is treated around the world, and that oral drugs could have a larger market share than injectables. He said most patients are more concerned about other factors like supply and convenience than how much weight they can lose, and he thinks orforglipron has the edge.

The treatment is a small molecule drug like most pills people know. It can be manufactured more easily than peptides, like the shots and Novo’s pill. And it doesn’t come with the food and water restrictions that come with Novo’s oral option, which requires people wait 30 minutes after taking the drug to eat and drink.

“When I look at the pills, orforglipron has no food effect, it’s a small molecule, so the manufacturing should be easier,” said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman. “But with new management at Novo Nordisk, I think [new Chief Executive Officer] Mike Doustdar is not going to just take this and be complacent about it. He’s going to lean in and ensure that this launch is successful.”

After seeing the results from Lilly’s obesity pill trial, Seigerman moved some of his market share estimate from orforglipron to oral semaglutide. Analysts cut their 2032 estimates for orforglipron by an average of about $4.5 billion between May and September, according to Evaluate. They now see sales of $14.56 billion that year.

Skovronsky said it’s harder to predict the market dynamics than the science.

“We did a good job predicting the science,” he said. “We said we’d make an oral that had safety, tolerability and efficacy that was similar to injectable GLP-1s. We did that. The science parts played out. Let’s see how the market plays out.”