Today’s game between the Eagles and Buccaneers in Tampa could loom large when we’re looking at NFC playoff scenarios later this year.
Both teams are undefeated and heavy favorites to win their respective divisions. They’re also two of the four biggest favorites to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed (along with the Packers and 49ers).
The Bucs have dominated the Eagles during the Nick Sirianni era, going 4-1 with two playoff wins and three wins by 14+ points. In fact, the Eagles’ last loss in a game that Jalen Hurts started and finished was Week 4 against Tampa last season. (Their only other loss since then was Week 14 last year, when Hurts was injured in the first quarter.)
Can the Eagles reverse that trend and get a key win against their NFC rivals this time? Here is my breakdown of the matchup and my Eagles vs. Bucs best bets.
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers predictions and best bets
A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards (+134 at DraftKings)
Eagles -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Over 43.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards
Best odds: +134 at DraftKings
After being ultra-conservative in their first two and a half games of the season, the Eagles opened up the offense in their second-half comeback against the Rams last week. Jalen Hurts threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns in the half, including 109 yards and one touchdown to A.J. Brown
This matchup sets up well for the Eagles to continue airing it out. The Bucs have been one of the best run defenses in the league for more than half a decade, but they can be vulnerable through the air.
Tampa has been a top-five run defense in five of the last six seasons, and they are sixth so far this season. They are also the top two based on popular advanced metrics like DVOA (2nd), EPA (1st), and success rate (2nd).
On the other hand, Tampa is in the bottom half of the league in most metrics against the pass: 19th in yards allowed, 20th in EPA and 25th in success rate. They also have not faced the most potent passing attacks against the Falcons, Texans, and Jets.
The Eagles’ passing attack is one of the biggest advantages on either side in this game, which is why my favorite player prop bet is Brown to gain 70+ receiving yards. Brown has missed the Eagles’ last two games against the Bucs – both double-digit losses. The last time he played them, in Week 3 of the 2023 season, he had nine catches for 131 yards and the Eagles won by 14.
Eagles -3.5
Best odds: -105 at FanDuel
The Eagles have a slight advantage when it comes to health, although both teams are pretty banged up entering this game.
The Bucs are missing two starting offensive linemen, defensive tackle and 2024 team sacks leader Calijah Kancey, and longtime star wide receiver Mike Evans. Sensational rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka isn’t on the injury report, but he played through a groin injury last week and played only 64% of offensive snaps after playing over 90% the first two weeks.
The Eagles placed their top edge rusher, Nolan Smith, on IR this week, and also could be forced to start fourth-string cornerback Kelee Ringo. Both of the Eagles’ starting linebackers, Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell, also missed time in practice this week and could be limited if they suit up.
Tampa will get a boost from the expected return of All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin, but their injuries are still more concerning than the Eagles’ injuries. I always hesitate to lay points on the road, especially as many as 3.5, but there are too many factors favoring the Eagles to ignore.
Over 43.5 total points
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
This game has shootout potential. The Bucs hung 33 points on the Eagles’ defense last year, and they have a top-five offense in EPA so far this year. The offense will take a hit without Evans, but Baker Mayfield is excellent against zone-heavy schemes like the one the Eagles run.
Tampa could also finally get its ground game going after struggling to run the ball so far this season. The Eagles are allowing 5.1 yards per carry (27th) this season and now both of their linebackers are dealing with injuries.
Both offenses have advantages to exploit and more than enough firepower to score at least 44 combined points.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers moneyline odds analysis
I like the Eagles to win and cover, but I could easily see the Buccaneers winning the game outright. Here is the case for each side.
How the Eagles can win as the favorite
Best odds: -190 at Fanatics
Even with Nolan Smith landing on IR this week, the Eagles’ defensive line has the potential to dominate the Bucs’ banged-up offensive line. Combine that with Evans being out, and the Bucs’ offense could struggle to move the ball in this game.
Perhaps an even bigger reason to like the Eagles is the possibility that the offense builds on last week’s second-half explosion.
If the Eagles are truly going to be more aggressive offensively, as comments this week from Hurts and Brown have indicated, then they have the talent to score at will against the Bucs’ below-average pass defense.
How the Buccaneers can win as the underdog
Best odds: +164 at DraftKings
Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving is off to a slow start after an impressive rookie season last year. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season after averaging 5.4 in 2024.
With the injury to Evans, the Bucs could lean more heavily on Irving, and this is a good matchup to do that. The Eagles are just 27th in DVOA against the run and 31st in success rate. If the Bucs can get Irving going, they can control the ball and keep it away from the Eagles’ offense.
Time of possession could be a big factor in this game with an expected heat index over 100 degrees. The Eagles are so concerned about the heat that they decided to travel down to Tampa a day early to get acclimated to the climate.
If the Bucs win the possession battle and wear out the Eagles’ defense, that could give them a big advantage late in the game. Mayfield thrives in clutch situations and he could orchestrate yet another game-winning drive against a tired defense if he has the opportunity to do so.