Copyright Athlon Sports
The Philadelphia Eagles should have no fear of life without A.J. Brown. Recent NFL history shows that trading a discontented, expensive receiver approaching 30 usually works out. Trading for that guy is a much bigger risk. Whether the “diva” label applies to Brown or not is irrelevant. No. 1 receivers on championship teams have a shelf life, and Brown’s nearing the end of his effectiveness in Philly. He may have a few more monster games in him, but soon his decline will be even more noticeable. Brown did publicly complain about the team’s offensive strategy. Last week he sent out an Instagram post with the caption “Using me but not using me.” In his first three seasons in Philadelphia, Brown averaged 88.0, 85.6 and 83.0 receiving yards per game. This season, he’s at 56.4 ypg. Fifth-year pro DeVonta Smith has emerged as the more consistent target, averaging 73.5 yards per game. Whether Brown likes his role or not, the dip in numbers points to his diminishing importance. The debate in the Eagles front office likely isn’t whether or not to trade Brown. The main question has to be: When do they pull the trigger? Multiple NFL insiders have reported that while it may be a longshot that he’ll be moved, Philadelphia will listen to calls before the Nov. 4 trade deadline. Consider some of the most recent high-profile deals for receivers… The Green Bay Packers sent 29-year-old Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders for draft picks in 2022. Adams had one great season, totaling 1,516 receiving yards and 14 TDs and Las Vegas went 6-11. The Packers are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Kansas City Chiefs sent a 28-year-old Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for multiple picks in ’22. Hill had one monster season in Miami but the Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game with him and now the franchise is in disarray. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl every season since Hill left. The New York Giants sent a 26-year-old Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns for multiple picks and Jabril Peppers in ’19. The Giants used one of those picks on foundational defensive anchor Dexter Lawrence. The Browns cut Beckham midseason in ’21. The Steelers sent 30-year-old Antonio Brown to the Raiders for picks in ’19. Brown suffered frostbite on his feet and never played for the Raiders. Kind of a long story. Stefon Diggs has good and bad history. In ’20, the Minnesota Vikings sent a 26-year-old Diggs to the Buffalo Bills for multiple picks and Diggs helped the Bills become contenders. In ’24, Buffalo dealt a 30-year-old Diggs to the Houston Texans for picks and he lasted just one season with them. One common theme with all these trades is that most experts assumed the teams losing the big-time receiver would be in trouble. As it turns out, good teams adjust quickly. A.J. Brown was an example of when trading for a receiver can work. The Tennessee Titans didn’t want to pay him the going rate for No. 1 WRs and shipped him to Philly. Brown immediately helped unlock the Eagles’ passing game and has been a key reason they’ve been to two of the last three Super Bowls. But he was 24 years old when that trade happened. Would he be able to add the same offensive jolt to a new team at 28? The important question for the Eagles is: Can they win without Brown? Even when he’s not directly involved in the offense, he’s someone defenses must account for. But last week, Philly finally got running back Saquon Barkley going against the Giants when Brown was sidelined by a hamstring injury. And Brown’s replacement, Jahan Dotson, contributed with a 40-yard circus catch TD. The Eagles have obvious strengths besides Brown. Smith has emerged as a No. 1 receiver. Veteran Dallas Goedert is still one of the most underrated tight ends in the league. And their offensive line fuels everything. Last season, four out of five linemen were named to the Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. Brown’s ultimate value to the Eagles also reflects on their opinion of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Last season, Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham told WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia that Hurts and Brown had a fissure in their relationship. If so, it didn’t hurt the team on its way to a Super Bowl title. Hurts’ career took off when Brown arrived in Philly. But Hurts has developed as a QB and could possibly benefit by not feeling pressure to get Brown targets. The ultimate model for a Brown trade that the Eagles aspire to is the Chiefs. While Kansas City’s offense lost some juice, it’s been a more complete team in the post-Hill era. Philadelphia has the same capability to beat teams in multiple ways. Even in the biggest games, like last season’s Super Bowl win over K.C., Brown had a limited role. The Eagles are 6-2 and most fans would probably want to avoid a major disruption. But Brown is approaching 30, an age when most receivers face a rapid decline. And he won’t be cheap. In two years, a three-year, $96 million extension kicks in. Brown’s value might be at a peak right now. In the short term, he would be a huge addition for a team trying to develop a young quarterback. No surprise, he’s been linked to his former coach Mike Vrabel in New England. Philadelphia is on a different timeline. The Eagles have enough young talent to be contenders for the next decade. General manager Howie Roseman is already scary to deal with. Give him extra draft capital and he’ll own draft week. If the Eagles are thinking long term, they should also consider the last true dynasty. The Patriots were ruthless in discarding older players. They kept the quarterback and moved all the pieces around him. Not that Hurts is anything like Tom Brady. But Philly has every incentive to keep its roster young and cost-effective, just like New England was able to do over a two-decade span. Everyone is focusing on Brown’s personality and locker room dynamics. The Eagles’ answer is in the numbers. Target-hungry receivers approaching 30 decline in value and their exit can spur more growth in other areas of the team. If you’re surprised Philadelphia would take calls on Brown, you’re ignoring the trajectories of other receivers in the same position. Brown will forever be part of Philadelphia Eagles history. He might even be a future Hall of Famer. He’s just not an essential part of Philadelphia’s future.
