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Dutch voters are heading to the polls after a combative and at times vitriolic election campaign dominated, as ever, by veteran far-right leader Geert Wilders. Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) won the last election back in 2023, but since no one else would work with him, he was forced to watch from the sidelines, often criticising the government in which the PVV held five cabinet posts. The only surprise was that the government lasted almost a year before Wilders pulled his ministers out of the coalition, causing its collapse in June. Wednesday’s election Polling suggests PVV may win once again in Wednesday’s election. But the margins with centre-right and left-wing parties have narrowed considerably. Earlier this week, Wilders was forced to issue a rare apology after two of his MPs were found to have distributed flyers featuring AI-generated images of the leader of the Green-Left party, former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, apparently being arrested. The images were fake. ‘Tit-for-tat’ debates These two figures – Wilders and Timmermans – have become the dominant names in Dutch politics, battling it out in tit-for-tat debates in parliament, on social media and in TV studios. While Wilders apologised for the AI pictures, Timmermans has refused to condemn a pro-Palestinian group which accused Wilders and other politicians on the right of backing genocide. In one of the final pre-election debates this week, Timmermans doubled down. “You’re defending [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] while he destroyed Gaza,” he said. “With that, you do condone genocide.” And it now appears that some Dutch voters have tired of the constant mudslinging, as a third ‘clean’ candidate from the centre-right – Henri Bontenbal – has emerged in the last month or so. But the Christian Democrat leader’s star may have already waned, after he made an apparent homophobic gaffe last week. Another party leader who has been forced to apologise. Wilders’ strategy Geert Wilders’ strategy appears to be to return to the ground he knows best, using thinly-veiled, anti-foreigner, anti-Muslim rhetoric. His election slogan is aimed at his core supporters: ‘This is your country!’. Immigration continues to be a touchstone issue for many voters and, though his ministers were not able to demonstrate it in office, Wilders insists that the PVV has the answers. Timmermans’ election pledge Timmermans, meanwhile, has been buoyed in the final days of the campaign by an estimated 45,000 taking part in a climate march at the weekend. His election pledge takes a different tack, asking voters to ‘rediscover the optimism that has always made our country so strong’. The plethora of political parties in the Netherlands means that forming governments requires compromise and coalition. For either side, finding a majority will not be easy, but could be mathematically possible – and that’s where the Netherlands differs from France; where there is no bridging the hard left/right divide. The result of the Dutch election will likely be known by early on Thursday. Then the real work begins. Watch more here
