By Kate Plummer
Copyright newsweek
U.S. President Donald Trump‘s approval rating is underwater in all seven swing states, according to aggregated polling data.
According to analysis by data journalist G. Elliott Morris posted in his Substack blog Strength In Numbers, the president’s approval rating has sunk in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona, all states he won in the 2024 election.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Newsweek: “President Trump is keeping his promises and Making America Great Again: whether it’s securing the border, securing historic investments in American manufacturing, taming Biden’s inflation crisis, or fighting against the Democrats’ radical demands of free health care for illegal aliens.” Referring to a Rasmussen Reports poll from September 25, she added: “That’s why over 57 percent of Americans approve of the President and the incredible job he’s doing!”
Why It Matters
Politically volatile, swing states were important in determining the result of the 2024 presidential election and securing Trump the keys to the White House.
President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025, in Washington.
If Trump’s popularity continues to decline in swing states, it may affect Republicans’ performance in the November 2026 midterms and enable Democrats to pick up key seats in the House and the Senate. This, in turn, could affect the balance of power in Congress and the passage of legislation.
What To Know
According to the analysis, Trump’s approval rating is -10 in Wisconsin, a state he won with 0.9 percent of the vote share.
In Michigan, a state he won with by 1.4 percent, his approval rating is at -12 percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, his 1.7 percent lead in 2024 has declined to -13 percentage points and his approval rating in Georgia is -11 points, a drop from 2024 when he won the state with a 2.2 percent margin.
Trump won Nevada by 3.1 points in 2024 but his rating there has since plummeted to -12 percentage points.
In North Carolina, his 3.2 percent margin has declined to -9 points.
In Arizona, his net approval rating stands at -7 percentage points. Trump won the state by 5.5 points in 2024.
Morris estimated Trump’s approval rating in each state by looking at what his net approval rating would be if his 2024 results in each race were swung 14 points against him, a swing implied by his national approval rating. He averaged these findings with estimates from a model which makes state estimates using national survey data.
Meanwhile, the polling also follows a May survey by Civiqs which also showed that Trump’s approval rating had declined in these states.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Craig Agranoff, an Adjunct Professor at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) specializing in political marketing and campaigning said: “Based on these figures, it presents potential hurdles for Republicans as the 2026 midterms draw near. Past patterns suggest that when a president’s approval dips below 50 percent, their party may face setbacks in congressional contests, especially in battleground areas where independents and moderates hold sway. This situation might open doors for Democratic advances in the House or Senate should the numbers persist, given how lower approval can influence voter turnout dynamics across partisan lines.”
He continued: “Regarding possible reasons for the slide, economic factors seem prominent, including ongoing inflation and tariff effects that have not eased as quickly as some anticipated, affecting various voter segments like younger people and lower-income households. Immigration policies, such as expanded deportations, could also factor in, potentially shifting views among groups that supported the President in 2024, highlighting a gap between campaign pledges and perceived outcomes.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s popularity is likely to fluctuate as his term continues. The midterm elections are scheduled to take place in November 2026.
