Copyright newsweek
Support for President Donald Trump among middle-class Americans is showing signs of erosion, according to recent polling. Data from YouGov/The Economist shows that in August, 45 percent of middle-income voters polled approved of Trump while 51 percent disapproved—a net rating of –6 points. That gap widened to –11 in September (43 percent approve; 54 percent disapprove) and –13 in October (42 percent approve; 55 percent disapprove). “President Trump has declared that he alone is in charge, and Republicans in Congress have largely let Trump do whatever he wants,” Professor of political communication at George Washington University, Peter Loge, told Newsweek. “People are concerned about the economy and the direction of the country. They blame the person in charge for their anxiety, and that’s Trump.” But while Trump may be losing ground among middle-income voters, other polls have largely shown that the shutdown has not negatively impacted Trump’s popularity. Why It Matters Middle-income Americans have historically been a contested but important group for the Republican Party. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won 52 percent of the vote among those earning $50,000-$100,000 compared to Kamala Harris’ 46%, flipping support from a group that had been more favorable to the Democrats in the 2020 election—when Trump won 46% of their votes compared to Joe Biden’s 54%. The latest polls suggest support from middle-income earners may be slipping away from the Republican Party as the four-week government shutdown continues. What To Know Middle-income voters surveyed by YouGov/The Economist remain broadly negative about the economy under Trump. Their approval of his handling of the economy has slipped from 41 percent in August to 37 percent in October, while disapproval rose from 50 to 59 percent. Views on inflation were even more negative, with just 33 percent approving and 63 percent disapproving in October, compared to 33 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval in August. However, some of the polling data shows the outlook of middle class voters has begun to stabilize after months of decline. While only 22 percent of respondents in October said the economy was “getting better,” that figure has remained steady since September after a sharp drop earlier in the summer. The share saying the economy was “getting worse” has held at 52 percent for two consecutive months. Similarly, the share of middle-income voters reporting that their personal finances have improved fell slightly, from 17 percent in August to 15 percent in October, while those saying their situation was “about the same” has stabilized near 45 percent. The dim economic mood follows signs of renewed strain in key areas: Inflation rose to 3 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—its highest level since January—while the unemployment rate reached 4.3 percent, the highest in four years. Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, October 22, 2025, in Washington D.C. And in September, the BLS reported that nonfarm payroll employment rose by only 22,000 the previous month, after analysts had forecast that the economy would add 75,000 jobs during August. The figures may suggest the job market, which remained robust through much of the past two years, is beginning to lose momentum. Meanwhile, concerns about the economy are deepening as the federal government shutdown continues. The closure began at the start of the month after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill, with the main sticking point being whether to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned this month that the prolonged stalemate was “starting to affect the real economy” and “people’s lives,” telling Fox News that the impact was becoming increasingly tangible. Economists estimate the shutdown could trim U.S. growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for every week it continues. Treasury officials put the broader cost at about $15 billion per week. Roughly 670,000 federal employees have already been furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, leaving many without pay and disrupting essential services as both parties remain entrenched in the standoff. And the latest YouGov/Economist poll shows that 45 percent of middle-income workers were at least “a little” affected by the government shutdown. Amid the uncertainty, 53 percent of middle-income voters say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the shutdown. However, an analysis by FiveThirtyEight shows that past government shutdowns have often led to sharp dips in presidential approval. During the 1995—1996 shutdown, for example, Bill Clinton’s approval rating fell from about 51 percent to the low 4...
