Copyright Newsweek
Pollster Nate Silver has warned that Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings amid the government shutdown may not rebound anytime soon, arguing that the president’s growing unpopularity could become a lasting feature of his second term. "The longest government shutdown in US history looks to be winding down. But Donald Trump’s heightened unpopularity might be here to stay," Silver, who has been critical of Trump in the past, said in a blog post. Why It Matters Trump’s weakening approval rating comes at a critical moment for his presidency, as the prolonged government shutdown continues to weigh on public opinion and economic confidence. Persistent unpopularity could limit his political leverage in Congress, complicate Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms, and deepen voter fatigue less than two years into his second term. If the downturn endures, it could mark a turning point in Trump’s ability to set the national agenda or rally support around his policy priorities. What To Know But Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, disagreed with Silver's analysis. He told Newsweek: "With more than three years left in his term, it’s premature to conclude that Trump’s approval ratings are permanently mired in the doldrums." He added: "What’s more likely to render him a lame duck is the same kind of Republican underperformance in the midterms as we saw in the off-year elections last week. But even if Democrats do manage to wrest control of the House, they’ll need to tread carefully in wielding their oversight powers—too much zeal in investigations could risk bolstering Trump’s support, just as it did with impeachment in Trump’s first term." While Trump's approval ratings initially appeared unaffected by the shutdown, recent weeks have seen his numbers plummet. President Trump has now gone 21 days without recording a single positive approval rating in any major poll—the longest stretch of his second term so far. Even pollsters like RMG Research that usually show Trump above water have begun to show net negative approval ratings. The most recent survey from RMG Research, conducted October 29 to November 6 for Napolitan News Service, found 46 percent of voters approving of Trump’s job performance and 51 percent disapproving—a net rating of -5. A previous RMG poll conducted October 22 to 30 showed him only slightly better, with 48 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval, a net -1. And RMG Research is not the only pollster to have given Trump their worst rating yet. The latest Morning Consult poll showed Trump with his worst net approval rating of his second term at -10 points, with 44 percent disapproving and 54 percent approving. Trump's approval rating also hit a new low in Newsweek's tracker last week, reaching -13 points, with 55 percent disapproving and 42 percent approving. However, it has now crept back up to -10 points, with 43 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving. And in Silver's tracker, Trump net approval stands at -13 points, where it has been since the beginning of the month. When the shutdown started on October 1, his net approval rating was -9.3. Meanwhile, voters also appear especially unhappy with Trump’s handling of the shutdown itself. A new YouGov/Economist poll from November 2 found that 58 percent disapprove of his approach—up 5 points since early October. The record-breaking federal shutdown has caused widespread disruption—grounding flights, halting public services, and leaving thousands of workers without pay—while millions of Americans have seen food assistance slashed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture tapped a $4.65 billion emergency fund to keep the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) running but cut benefits to roughly two-thirds of normal levels for 42 million recipients. After two federal judges ruled the move illegal, President Donald Trump defended the cuts on Truth Social, saying payments would resume "when the radical left Democrats open up government." Democrats accused the administration of "weaponizing hunger" to gain leverage in budget talks. According to The New York Times, the White House has since sought to block full SNAP funding despite the court order. But public opinion has shifted sharply away from the White House, with the latest YouGov/Economist poll showing 74 percent of Americans believe food benefits should continue during the shutdown. On Monday, the Senate passed a temporary spending bill to keep the government funded through January, signaling a possible end to the standoff. The deal—supported by a handful of Democrats—includes a future vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire on January 1. However, the political fallout may already be significant: a new HarrisX poll found 37 percent of voters are now more likely to support Democrats in the midterms, compared with 36 percent who said the same for Republicans. What Happens Next The Senate’s passage of a temporary funding bill on Monday brings the end of the historic government shutdown within reach, but several hurdles remain. The measure, which would keep the government funded through January 30, 2026, now heads to the House, where a vote could take place as soon as Wednesday. However, key disputes still linger, including whether to extend ACA tax credits, a sticking point that has divided both chambers. Lawmakers are also divided over an amendment allowing senators to sue the federal government over searches of their phone records tied to the January 6 investigation.
