It’s going to be the Dodgers, right?
Right?
The defending World Series champs have the best player in the galaxy and more stars than a planetarium. They survived an outbreak of pitching injuries, yawned through the regular season, and still won 93 games and the National League West.
Los Angeles’ opponent in the wild-card round, the plucky Reds, won 83 games and tiptoed into the playoffs on the last day of the season amid a collapse for the ages by the Mets.
So, yeah, it’ll be the Dodgers who show up here Saturday to face the Phillies in Game 1 of the National League division series.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ season is complete. Next up: the NLDS vs. the Dodgers or Reds.
Unless …
Well, everyone was sure the Dodgers would be the Phillies’ opponent in the NL Championship Series two years ago. Right up until they were swept out of the divisional round by the Diamondbacks, an 84-win No. 6 seed that backed into the playoffs after Game 162 and wound up taking out the Phillies to win the pennant.
As Kyle Schwarber philosophized a few days ago, “the postseason is a wild animal.” Taming it is difficult enough. Forecasting it is darned near impossible.
Say this, then: The Dodgers are the favorite. But other than rooting for the series to go the distance — since the wild-card round was expanded to a best-of-three miniseries in 2022, 10 of the 12 series have been sweeps — the Phillies might as well flip a coin.
Let’s take a longer look, then, at both potential opponents.
Dodgers
Everyone expected the Dodgers to have an all-time season akin to the 114-win Yankees in 1998. Maybe they’re more like the 2000 Yankees, a defending champ that appeared bored in an 87-win season before dominating the field in the playoffs.
“When you’ve won before, you know what it takes to win,” Dynasty Yankees manager Joe Torre said last month. “But you can’t stop to admire, ‘Look what I did,’ because you lose it quick.”
To be fair, the Dodgers found it late in the season. They won their last five games, nine of 11, and 15 of 20 to lock down the NL West title. They’re finally getting healthy, too, although star catcher Will Smith remains iffy for the wild-card series with a hairline fracture in his right hand.
» READ MORE: Roster decisions, a bullpen question, and more: What to watch for as the Phillies get set for the playoffs
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy bat left-handed, but the Dodgers still ranked third in the majors with a .765 OPS against lefties. Two weeks ago, they scored 11 runs in 20 innings at Dodger Stadium against Phillies lefties Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Jesús Luzardo.
It could give Rob Thomson something to think about, such as starting Aaron Nola — or crazy as it sounds, even ex-Dodger Walker Buehler — in Game 2 or 3.
“They have an offense that scares,” Torre said. “They have an offense that was better than our [Yankees] offense, without question.”
The Dodgers also have Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto lined up to start the first two games of the wild-card series. A sweep would likely set up Ohtani for Game 1 against the Phillies. He no-hit them for five innings Sept. 16, his first career start against them.
“I’m a believer of, the more you see a guy, the more comfortable you get,” Phillies left fielder Brandon Marsh said. “I’m glad we saw him, so down the road, we have a better understanding and feeling for him.”
It works both ways, of course. The Dodgers got a look at Jhoan Duran, who blew a save against them Sept. 15 before the Phillies came back to win in 10 innings.
» READ MORE: From April: Bring on the Dodgers, a superteam that’s good for baseball
Duran brought order to the Phillies’ bullpen at the trade deadline. There are still questions about the sturdiness of the bridge to the ninth inning, especially with Orion Kerkering stumbling down the stretch.
But the Dodgers’ bullpen is a mess. None of their three big free-agent additions — Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, and now-injured Kirby Yates — pitched well, leaving manager Dave Roberts unsure who will get the last out of postseason games.
One potential X-factor: Roki Sasaki recently returned from a shoulder injury and was throwing 99 mph out of the bullpen last week.
Reds
How long has it been since the Reds won a playoff series?
Terry Francona wasn’t a major league manager yet.
Think about that. Francona is a Hall of Fame-bound dugout jockey, but in 1995, when the Reds swept the Dodgers in the division series, he was a year removed from managing Michael Jordan in double A and two away from getting hired by the Phillies.
The Sons of Tito can quench only one drought at a time, though. So, after reaching the postseason for the first time since 2020, the Reds will try to grab their first playoff victory since 2012.
It’s all about pitching in Cincinnati, which makes the Reds dangerous in a short series.
» READ MORE: ‘You’ve got a closer.’ How the Phillies nabbed Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader at the tide-turning trade deadline.
Hunter Greene, the Game 1 starter against the Dodgers, missed two months with a groin injury but had a 2.81 ERA in eight starts since coming back. Lefties Andrew Abbott (2.87 ERA) and Nick Lodolo (3.33) would probably start Game 2 and 3.
The bullpen has gotten a boost, too, from hard-throwing rookie righties Chase Burns and Connor Phillips, both of whom figure to get leverage opportunities ahead of Emilio Pagán, underrated in the closer universe.
But that assumes the Reds will score enough to have the lead. And they were held to two runs or fewer 54 times, more than any team in the postseason tournament. They ranked 21st in homers (167) and slugging (.391). Elly De La Cruz, their top power threat, went 43 games without a homer before hitting three in the last nine games.
The Reds also had a .653 OPS against lefties, tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the majors, although they did beat Suárez and Sánchez in back-to-back games in August.
Francona, a two-time World Series-winning manager in Boston who took Cleveland to Game 7 in 2016, changed the culture in his first year in Cincinnati. But other than former Dodgers utilityman Gavin Lux, his players are October neophytes. The rest of the Reds’ roster has a combined 48 games in the postseason.
The Phillies have played 34 postseason games since 2022, which gives them confidence regardless of the opponent.