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Voters in two states will choose their governors next week. But it's less clear if there will be important political lessons to be mined from the outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey. “Whether we should or we shouldn't, we definitely will,” Oklahoma State University politics professor said of trying to forecast next year’s midterms and more based off the upcoming gubernatorial races. Both McKee and , the Political Management program director at George Washington University, said the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races will serve as barometers of how voters feel about President Donald Trump. But McKee said exit surveys that get to the nitty gritty of voter motivation will be more instructive than simply who wins or loses. Will voters care most about the cost of living, crime, cultural issues, or something else? “My sense is that the economic angst is going to do better, and then you'll probably have narratives written around that,” he said. McKee and Belt said the Democratic candidates in both states are likely to win. Of the two, New Jersey appears to be the most competitive. “We're so nationalized in American politics. Does that low approval of Trump in New Jersey, in Virginia, how much does it cost those Republicans?” McKee said. Recent polls have shown at in both states. Democrat Abigail Spanberger is taking on Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. Current Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is term-limited. consistently show Spanberger with the lead. Spanberger is a former congresswoman and former federal law enforcement officer. Earle-Sears is the state’s lieutenant governor and a Marine veteran. Virginia voters have to their state’s highest office in recent history. Democrat Mikie Sherrill is up against Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, is term-limited. A September poll from Emerson College and The Hill showed Sherrill and Ciattarelli . Since then, Sherrill has consistently been in the . Even though the incumbent is a Democrat, in recent memory. Republican Chris Christie served as governor for eight years, from 2010 to 2018. Sherrill is a congresswoman and a Navy veteran. Ciattarelli is a former state lawmaker who has been . McKee said Ciattarelli “is yoked with Trump,” while he said the president gave a “lukewarm ” to Earle-Sears. Belt said the Democrats running in both states are moderates. “And they also have the personal background, the military and intelligence background, that puts them a bit different,” Belt said. “So, any sort of attempts to try to tarnish them as being progressives and real left wing can fall on some deaf ears. But people are going to believe what they want to believe. ... The Republicans thought they found an issue, the trans rights issue last year, in the same way the Democrats thought that they found that abortion issue in 2022. And so, we're seeing a . We'll see if that connects. But Democrats just seem like they're at the advantage here in both these elections.” The has New Jersey as “leaning” Democratic and Virginia as “likely” Democratic in the gubernatorial races. Both Spanberger and Sherrill stand in contrast to , running on the Democratic ticket in another high-profile race. Mamdani is the front-runner in New York City’s mayoral race. He’s also a democratic socialist who advocates for rent freezes, free bus service, free childcare, and city-owned grocery stores. Republicans have tried to of Democrats. Spanberger and Sherrill are also talking about the cost of living in their campaigns. But Belt said the Democrats running in Virginia and New Jersey are very different than the Democrat running in New York City, even if they all share party identification. “If the Democrats win all three of them, then everybody's going to read into it what they want to read,” he said. Belt downplayed the potential to extract important political lessons from the gubernatorial races unless Republicans pull upsets. “I think then you can start reading a lot more into people's disaffection with the Democratic Party, and perhaps there isn't as much weakness in the Republican Party behind Trump as people might see,” he said. McKee said off-year voters might be more likely to be in opposition to Trump. Belt said off-year elections also tend to have lower turnout. That can also make it tougher to forecast future elections off the results. But Belt said Youngkin, a Republican, won in Virginia under similar circumstances in part because voters were unhappy with the party in power. At that time, it was President Joe Biden. If voters are unhappy with Trump now, Spanberger and Sherrill might be the beneficiaries on Nov. 4. But Belt warned that Democrats can’t just be “the party of anti-Trump” if they want to win over voters. “The Democrats need to listen,” he said. “They need to put together a playbook of what they plan to do and how it's going to make people's lives better.”
