Copyright Salt Lake Tribune
The magnitude and scope of Tuesday’s victories for Democrats were hard to ignore. In Virginia, Democrats’ nominee for governor, Abigail Spanberger, won decisively by nearly 15 percentage points — the biggest win in a governor’s race in the state this century. The former congresswoman’s victory was sweeping, more than doubling Kamala Harris’ near 7-point victory there a year earlier. In New Jersey, gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill won easily despite polls showing a neck-and-neck contest, overcoming the blue state’s rightward shift during the 2024 election. And in Pennsylvania, three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court easily won retention races by larger-than-expected margins. Some of the victories down the ballot were even bigger for Democrats: Virginia Democratic delegates swept to win their largest majority in the General Assembly since 1989. And even the Democratic nominee for attorney general in Virginia, Jay Jones, won Tuesday, despite the revelation and resulting scandal that he had sent text messages that fantasized about violence against Republicans. “If 2017 and 2018 were about the resistance, 2025 and 2026 could be the reckoning,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. “Last time it was about fighting back. This time it’s about people being betrayed.” The wins — the party’s most significant since Trump’s second term began — will rekindle Democratic hopes that the party is poised to rebound from its dismal 2024 showing with big victories during next year’s midterm elections, similar to the ones it enjoyed during Trump’s first term in office. And for a party mired in a yearlong existential crisis, the wins will alleviate growing concern among donors, activists and grassroots supporters that Democrats had become hopelessly incapable of resisting Trump and fielding winning candidates. Success in the 2025 elections, which aren’t federal races, won’t necessarily translate into victories for Democrats next year, especially if the political environment shifts over the next 12 months. Republicans say they are confident that Trump’s popularity among conservatives and a concerted effort from GOP campaigns can boost turnout in 2026 and help the party win key House and Senate races. GOP strategists also took heart in Zohran Mamdani’s victory Tuesday in the New York City mayoral race, saying they plan to use the democratic socialist against Democratic candidates in races across the country next year. But these kinds of victories were enough to remind some Democrats of 2018, when the party rode a wave of anti-Trump sentiment to a gain of 41 seats in the House. “Donald Trump is president, Republicans are ripping away affordable health care and Democrats are overperforming the presidential results by double digits,” said Meredith Kelly, a Democratic strategist. “This feels like déjà vu with 2018, and that’s bad news for D.C. Republicans.” Republicans were quick to dismiss the implications of some of Tuesday’s results. They called the GOP gubernatorial nominee in Virginia, Winsome Earle-Sears, a bad, underfunded candidate. The Republican lieutenant governor was badly outspent, and was seen as such a weak candidate that Trump never formally endorsed her during the campaign. Trump’s policies targeting government workers likely also had special resonance in Virginia, home to many government employees, more than it will in other parts of the country. Republicans say they see Trump as an electoral asset next year, someone whose popularity they can leverage to persuade core GOP supporters to turn out and vote next year. But Democrats see Trump differently, arguing that he’s unpopular with any voter beyond the GOP base. And they say that, even more so than during his first term, Republicans are unable to distance themselves from the president. Trump himself weighed in on the Republican losses over Truth Social. What he said the “pollsters” told him: Republicans lost because he wasn’t on the ballot, and the shutdown played a role.
