By Andrew Stanton

Copyright newsweek

Democratic candidates all held a lead over their Republican rivals in the latest poll of three Virginia statewide races as early voting began on Friday.Spokespersons for former Representative Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor, and state Senator Ghazala Hashmi, who is running for lieutenant governor, expressed optimism about their chances in November in statements to Newsweek.Why It MattersVirginia’s off-year elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general are viewed as a critical bellwether for how the country is feeling ahead of the midterms, when every member of the House of Representatives, a third of U.S. senators and dozens of governors across the country are up for reelection.Typically, the party in the White House has struggled in these elections and subsequently loses seats in the midterm elections.That was the case four years ago, when Republicans, including Glenn Youngkin, now the state’s governor, swept the Virginia races in narrow victories. Although the midterms delivered middling results for Republicans, they still managed to flip control of the House of Representatives the following year. Democrats are hoping strong victories in this year’s race could translate to wins in 2026.What To KnowThe poll from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center tested the gubernatorial race between Spanberger, a Democrat, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican; the lieutenant governor race between Hashmi, a Democrat, and Republican John Reid; and the attorney general race between incumbent Republican Jason Miyares and former Democratic legislator Jay Jones.At the top of the ticket, Spanberger held a 12-point lead over Earle-Sears (52 percent to 40 percent), with 8 percent remaining undecided. Hashmi led Reid by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent), with 15 percent undecided, according to the survey.The attorney general race was closer. Jones led by only seven points (48 percent to 41 percent), with 12 percent of respondents undecided.The poll, conducted from September 8 to September 14, 2025, surveyed 808 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.Polls have generally found Democrats with a lead so far. Virginia, once a battleground, has drifted leftward over the past decade and is now viewed as a reliably Democratic state despite Youngkin’s victory in 2021. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried Virginia by nearly six points last November, a notably weaker performance than former President Joe Biden’s 10-point victory in 2020.The poll comes after two Republican former members of Congress endorsed Spanberger. Former Representatives Barbara Comstock, who represented a northern Virginia seat from 2015 to 2019, and Denver Riggleman, who represented areas around Charlottesville and other parts of central Virginia from 2019 to 2021, both backed her campaign this week.A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released in September similarly gave Democrats leads in the three races. Spanberger led that survey by nine points (48 percent to 39 percent), Hashmi led by four points (44 percent to 40 percent) and Jones led by six points (46 percent to 40 percent).The survey was conducted among 804 Virginia adults from August 18 to August 28, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.A SoCal Strategies poll found Spanberger leading by 12 points (53 percent to 41 percent), while Hashmi and Jones both led by five points (46 percent to 41 percent in both races). It surveyed 800 likely voters from August 31 to September 1.A Roanoke College poll, however, pointed to a closer race. Spanberger led by seven points against Earle-Sears (46 percent to 39 percent), while Hashmi led by three points (38 percent to 35 percent). Jones also led by three points (41 percent to 38 percent).The poll surveyed 602 likely voters from August 11 to August 15, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.39 percentage points.What People Are SayingState Senator Ghazala Hashmi’s spokesperson, Ava Pitruzzello, told Newsweek: “Virginians are seeing that John Reid does not share their values as he touts plans to close public schools and strip healthcare from over 300,000 Virginians. As Senator Hashmi continues to travel the state, she will continue having conversations about the most pressing issues facing Virginia, including funding public education, ensuring every Virginian has access to affordable health care, and bringing down costs of living.”Former Representative Abigail Spanberger’s campaign, in a statement to Newsweek: “Ahead of the start of early voting on Friday, Abigail remains laser-focused on lowering costs for Virginia families — the number-one issue for Virginia voters.”Former Representative Barbara Comstock, on X: “I’m proud to support @SpanbergerForVA for Governor. She has the character, integrity, and record of bringing people together to make the Commonwealth better for all of us.”Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears addressed polling last month in remarks to WFXR: “I’m feeling very excited. Don’t believe what your eyes are telling you because the media is lying to you. What do we know? Believe my opponent this one time. This one time, when she says on video that this race is a toss-up race. It’s because her internal polls are showing the same thing ours is and that we’re…neck-and-neck.”Former Governor L. Douglas Wilder wrote in a polling memo for VCU: “The latest Wilder School Poll results reveal just how these races have become more competitive. In the contest for lieutenant governor, Senator Ghazala Hashmi holds only a narrow lead over John Reid (45%-41%), despite Governor Youngkin’s unprecedented demand that Reid not run for the seat. That speaks volumes about the limits of Youngkin’s influence.”The governor’s race tells a similar story: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, suggesting that Youngkin’s endorsement is likewise not carrying the weight he might have expected. Even Attorney General Jason Miyares, closely tied to this administration, trails former Delegate Jay Jones, 47% to 41%.”What Happens NextEarly voting begins on September 19. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the gubernatorial race as likely Democratic.