Copyright NJ.com
12 minutes. That’s how long Mikie Sherrill spoke at a Morristown press conference, before she answered a few impromptu questions and her team whisked her away from a gaggle of reporters. But before she scooted out of the tightly orchestrated event at a park in early September — which was billed as a “transparency announcement” — she still managed to mention President Donald Trump three times. The 47th president, of course, was not actually present in the park that day. But Trump still seemed to take center stage in Sherrill’s mind, as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee and congresswoman once again linked him to her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli. “Jack said he’s got no disagreements with Trump,” Sherrill said at the very end of her response to a question about her plan to deal with skyrocketing electricity costs in the state. The strategy has been baked in from the start: Link Ciattarelli early and often with Trump and his strong-arm tactics. Trust that traditionally blue New Jersey finds the entire MAGA movement so distasteful that they will vote against any Republican running for office, especially one endorsed by the president. Except as New Jersey’s spirited gubernatorial election enters the homestretch, some Democrats privately worry about their nominee and her campaign strategy in an intense showdown with Ciattarelli. “People think she’s not running the race that she should be running,” a Democratic political operative said. “They think that she’s playing it too safe, and they think that she’s putting all of her marbles in Trump.” “That’s a very dangerous thing to do,” the operative added. Democrats are haunted by what happened in 2024, when Kamala Harris leaned heavily into the idea that Trump was too dangerous to be elected, while also failing to distance herself fully from an increasingly unpopular sitting president, Joe Biden. Democratic candidates across the country failed to see voters’ economic worries beyond Trump — and paid the price. Missing the signs from 2024 is “my fear,” one Democratic operative said. Sure, Sherrill has a strong biography, the voter registration numbers are on her side and polling currently leans her way, placing her ahead by about 6 percentage points in most surveys. And, make no mistake, Trump, who Ciattarelli gave an A-grade in the second gubernatorial debate, has a fairly dismal 38% approval rating here in New Jersey. But there is concern among some in the party that she lacks concrete policy ideas, relies too much on a D.C. staff that isn’t Jersey-savvy, takes certain voter demographics for granted — and focuses on Trump too much. Indeed, the current Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, whom she graded with a B, has polled as low as 35%. She’s not particularly electrifying, they add, as she needs to energize the base at a time when Democrats desperately want dynamic, aggressive fighters with fresh ideas. The national parties are pouring millions into the Garden State, especially Democrats and other interest groups (plus Sherrill’s super PAC) who have ponied up at least $12.7 million on her behalf through Oct. 3, according to campaign finance disclosures. But after all this time, and just a few weeks from the election, the question remains: Can an impressive yet flawed candidate win over a sizable bloc of independent and moderate voters who think a change from Murphy and Democrats is overdue? “She is phenomenally qualified for whatever job she wants to do,” said Dan Cassino, poll director and political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University. But she has spent much of the campaign playing defense, he added. Holding on to the Democratic base. Failing in outreach to key voters. Keeping the media at arms-length. Not out there enough as Ciattarelli runs up his cholesterol count hitting Jersey diners nonstop. Sherrill has gone on the offensive over the past month, pivoting to promises on energy bills and the economy and launching an aggressive ad campaign that attempts to paint the more conservative Ciattarelli as a serial taxer. Both sides are airing personal attacks that will either sway some undecided voters or turn them off. But Republicans think they have momentum after Trump’s 2024 gains, Ciattarelli’s surprisingly close gubernatorial loss to Murphy four years ago and growing support among blue-collar workers. Sherrill has heard the complaints, which are now getting attention from some of the national media looking at the race. She soundly rejects them. “It’s always a little surprising to me to hear some of this stuff because I don’t gauge my races on kind of what’s on social media or being reported by some of the political outlets,” Sherrill told NJ Advance Media. “I gauge it on what I’m hearing on the ground, what I’m seeing on the ground. … It feels like we’re peaking.” The ‘total package’? The 53-year-old Sherrill has a stacked resume supporters often tick off, as if reciting their favorite baseball player’s stats. Navy helicopter pilot. Former federal prosecutor. Mother of four children. Trump-defying congresswoman who in 2018 flipped a seat Republicans held for more than three decades. “She’s the total package as far as I’m concerned,” said former Republican Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, the state’s first (and only) female governor, who has endorsed Sherrill. And yet. Ciattarelli continually calls Sherrill Phil Murphy 2.0, saying she’ll only continue his Democratic policies that are costly to taxpayers. She’s trying to defy historical precedent: New Jersey hasn’t supported a governor from the same political party for more than two consecutive, four-year terms since 1961. And there was one moment in May that became a nightmare for a congresswoman trying to jump into state politics’ top job. CBS reporter Marcia Kramer locked eyes with Sherrill, and in the glare of the lights and TV cameras, asked a proverbial softball: If you could pass one piece of legislation, what would it be? Three seconds passed in silence as panic seemed to flash across the congresswoman’s face. “Wow. I would l do-,” Sherrill started to say before interrupting herself that May day on the set of the CBS talk show, “The Point.“ “That’s a really good question, ‘cause there’s so many that are coming to mind right now…” All told, delivering an answer took 31 seconds. A lifetime in the world of politics. An eternity in the unforgiving fishbowl of TV. And maybe worst of all, her response was more about Washington D.C. — federal block grants — than New Jersey. Ciattarelli gleefully seized on the fumble, pitching it as an example of what he says are Sherrill’s lack of Jersey bonafides. After releasing a devastating ad just after the June primaries, he continues to pound it in his fall ad campaign. Of course, Sherrill’s Republican foe wants you to know he’s a quintessential Jersey guy. Born and bred in Raritan, Ciattarelli attended Seton Hall University and was elected to local and county offices before serving in the state Assembly for seven years. His family’s been here for a century, he often says. And Ciattarelli is very familiar with running for office in New Jersey. He lost the Republican gubernatorial primary to Kim Guadagno in 2017 and came within three points of beating Murphy in 2021. Sherrill says this is a weakness. “I’m ready to shake up the status quo, and Jack is the status quo,” she said in her primary election victory speech. “He’s a ghost of elections past.” But Democrats know Ciattarelli has name recognition and formidable outreach across the state. He might have lost the past couple of elections, but he’s been everywhere and knows the state well, insiders say. Sherrill grew up in Virginia and has spent much of the past seven years repping the state in Washington. It adds another hurdle to her campaign, Whitman says, but it can be a strength in some ways. “She knows how to handle what’s coming at us from Washington,” Whitman said. “But it’s always a challenge. New Jersey is a different kind of state, and you just have to get as familiar as you can, which is another thing she’s doing now.” This race, like every other, comes down to affordability and who deserves the blame for it, political insiders said. There are only two choices. “They’ll either blame Democrats for that, or they’ll blame Trump for that,” one operative said. Some worry that Sherrill’s laser focus on Trump — who won 46% of New Jersey’s vote last year in the presidential election — is not enough. Every time she rails against the president, she’s not mentioning New Jersey voters’ pressing issues — skyrocketing property taxes, rising tolls tolls and NJ Transit fares, soaring electric bills — despite saying Trump is the one who will harm residents’ wallets. Antoinette Miles, the party’s state director, declined to comment on Sherrill’s weaknesses but said working-class voters worried about their bottom line remain a key electorate. These voters “are right now really feeling it when it comes to economic frustration,” Miles said. The current governor presented another quandary for Sherrill. At first, she largely steered clear of criticizing Murphy, earning the ire of some Democrats who say she needs to separate herself from his increasingly unpopular administration. “People are looking for change, as they always are, after eight years of one” party in office, said Julie Roginsky, a Democratic adviser who consulted on Murphy’s first campaign and is now a Murphy critic. “And as a result, she has no choice but to make it very clear over and over again that she’s going to change course from what is happening right now,” Roginsky added, “because what is happening right now is making people’s lives unaffordable in New Jersey.” In August, Sherrill unveiled a plan to reduce bureaucratic hurdles for new businesses. She’s talked up taxes. And she vowed to freeze electricity prices. When Murphy cast doubt on the feasibility of her energy plan, she shot back at him, saying online that she was “tired of hearing” lower electric bills are impossible. A fractured party Sherrill had to survive a blistering Democratic primary to get this far. A moderate favored by most party leaders, she convincingly defeated five prominent candidates: the race was called just 39 minutes after the polls closed. But the primary revealed just how fractured the party is. To beat Ciattarelli, Sherrill’s task is to not only run a campaign that resonates with weary and overtaxed voters but to coalesce Democrats splintered by the bruising primary as the party suffers through a national identity crisis, observers say. Four months later, have Democrats rallied around their chosen nominee? Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, a progressive who came in a distant second place in the primary, did eventually endorse Sherrill at a Sept. 3 event at a Newark church. He’s also campaigned for her. But his support came only after ”painful” conversations between the two camps over policy. “The party is fractured and we’re going to have to bring it together in order to win or we’re going to lose,” Baraka told supporters following his loss in the primary. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, the other darling of progressive Democrats — who came in third — has technically endorsed Sherrill. But his support could be described as tepid at best, judging from his own remarks before the first governor’s debate. “I remain somewhat of an uninspired voter unfortunately,” said Fulop, who said that he will still be voting for Sherrill because of the high stakes. The progressive New Jersey Working Families Party, which endorsed Baraka in the primary and supported Murphy in his 2021 re-election has notably not yet endorsed anyone in this race. Another progressive group, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, recently warned the race is much closer than it should be. “We hope Sherrill wins,” said Adam Green, the group’s co-founder. “But it’s looking very likely she underperforms, and it’s because of her milquetoast campaign message.” Although Democrats enjoy a strong voter registration advantage of more than 800,000 in New Jersey, the national party is pouring $1.5 million into the race to reach “key constituencies” it lost ground with last year, including Black, Latino and Asian American voters. U.S. Sen. Andy Kim, a longtime Sherrill supporter, conceded voters are “very cynical about politics and they are just exhausted … But people feel resolute. They might not be jumping up and down at rallies, but they know what’s happening to our country and they’re going to show up and vote.” One strategist sees “a building enthusiasm amongst Democrats,” referring to the myriad of federal actions in recent months — the government shutdown, ICE raids, tariffs. “Can I say that she’s driving it? Maybe not as much,” the strategist said. “I think Trump’s really the one that’s driving it, but she’ll be benefitting from it.” For her part, Sherrill says “all the things that people point out as the real flaws of 2024 for Democrats” can be said about Ciattarelli. Of course, she mentioned Trump. “Not appropriately addressing the economic pain, which I don’t think Jack’s doing, because Trump’s driving up costs and he refuses to address it,” Sherrill said.
