Copyright Newsweek
According to a poll released on Monday by Bowling Green State University, Ohio’s 2026 gubernatorial election appears to be competitive for Democrats who have slipped in support in the state over the past decade. Democratic candidate Amy Acton's campaign manager told Newsweek that the poll "reflects what we’ve seen consistently all year." Newsweek also reached Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign for comment via email on Monday. Why It Matters Ohio backed President Donald Trump in each of his three presidential bids despite supporting former President Barack Obama in his 2008 and 2012 elections. The Buckeye State has steadily drifted toward Republicans, giving Trump a double-digit victory last November against then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Ohio backed Trump by about 11 points last year, a rightward shift from his eight-point victories in 2020 and 2016. However, Democrats are hoping to make a comeback next November in the gubernatorial and Senate races. Ramaswamy, who rose to national prominence when he ran for president in 2024, is the leading candidate for Republicans in the gubernatorial race, while Acton, the former Ohio Department of Health director, is the most prominent Democrat in the race at this point, though former Representative Tim Ryan has not ruled out a run. What To Know Bowling Green State University's new poll showed the race as being competitive. Ramaswamy held a three-point lead over Acton (50 to 47 percent) and a two-point lead over Ryan if he were to run (49 to 47 percent). It also pointed to a competitive Senate race, showing former Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown with a single-point lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted (49 to 48 percent). The poll surveyed 800 registered voters from October 2 to 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Acton is a physician who led the Ohio Department of Public Health during the COVID-19 pandemic under Republican Governor Mike DeWine, who is not running for reelection. Meanwhile, Ramaswamy ran for president as a Republican in 2024. He struggled to garner enough support to overtake Trump, but became a favorite among many conservatives. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in both races. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal ball classify the Senate race as Leans Republican and the gubernatorial race as Likely Republican. In August, an Emerson College poll showed the GOP with leads. Its survey found Husted leading Brown by six points (50 to 44 percent). Ramaswamy led Acton by 10 points (49 to 39 percent) and Ryan by eight points (49 to 41 percent). That poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 18 to 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. What People Are Saying Acton's campaign manager Philip Stein told Newsweek: "This poll reflects what we’ve seen consistently all year: Even as a new candidate, Dr. Acton is in a statistical dead heat with Ramaswamy, remains well ahead in any hypothetical primary, and consistently ranks as the highest approved public figure in Ohio of either party. Every day on the campaign trail, Amy hears from Ohioans impacted by high costs who are ready for change and they know it's the doctor and lifelong public servant not the corporate billionaire who's going to deliver it." Robert Alexander, professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, wrote in the polling memo: “Democrats are likely to be encouraged by these numbers. They look to be competitive in both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race. We are likely to see a great deal of attention in the coming year to see if a state that has become reliably red still has a shade of purple left in it. With that said, the state remains a heavy lift for Democrats given recent election outcomes.” What Happens Next? Candidates will spend the coming months making their case to voters about why they should be elected to these critical offices. Ohio’s primary is set for May 5, 2026, and the general election will be held on November 3, 2026.
