Copyright Newsweek
A new poll suggests a tight race in Nevada’s 2026 gubernatorial election, with Attorney General Aaron Ford, a Democrat, trailing Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo by a narrow margin. The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey, conducted between October 7-13, shows Lombardo leading Ford by 3 points—40 percent to 37 percent—with 23 percent of voters still undecided. The race remains well within the survey’s 3.54 percent margin of error, underscoring how competitive the state remains heading into another high-stakes election year. Newsweek has contacted the Ford and Lombardo campaigns via email for comment. Why It Matters Nevada remains one of the nation’s most pivotal battlegrounds—it narrowly backed President Donald Trump in 2024 after years of leaning Democratic. The tight race between Lombardo and Ford underscores how competitive the state has become and could serve as an early indicator of party strength heading into the 2028 presidential election. With voter registration nearly evenly split and independents making up more than a third of the electorate, Nevada’s gubernatorial contest offers a key test of whether Democrats can regain lost ground or Republicans can solidify their recent gains in the Southwest. What To Know The poll shows that both candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably—an increasingly rare finding in modern politics and one that highlights Nevada’s competitive political landscape. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, holds a 45 percent favorable rating and 38 percent unfavorable, with just 4 percent of voters saying they had never heard of him. Ford, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 35 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent, though nearly one in five voters said they had no opinion of him. The results mirror Nevada’s finely balanced electorate, where party registration remains nearly even—Republicans at 28.4 percent, Democrats at 28.3 percent, and nonpartisan voters accounting for 36.6 percent of the total. With the GOP holding a razor-thin edge of just 2,284 registered voters statewide, control of the governor’s office could once again hinge on swing and independent voters. Historically, statewide races in Nevada have been decided by an average margin of less than 3 percentage points, suggesting this contest could be similarly close. Ford currently faces a Democratic primary challenge from Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill, while Lombardo—who is expected to seek a second term—has no major declared challengers within his party. As governor, Lombardo has sought to position himself as a pragmatic, center-right Republican, a stance that reflects the political realities of a closely divided swing state. That approach was on display last month when he unexpectedly vetoed a bill that would have required voters to show photo identification at the polls—a conservative priority and one that was previously on his own legislative agenda. The bill emerged from a compromise with the Democratic assembly leader, who sought to expand the use of drop boxes for mail ballots. In his veto message, Lombardo said he “wholeheartedly” supports voter ID laws, but argued the final version failed to address concerns about mail-in voting, noting that ballots could still be accepted “solely on the basis of a signature match.” If elected, Ford would become Nevada’s first Black governor—a milestone that could energize parts of the Democratic base, but may not be enough to overcome the state’s shifting political dynamics. University of Nevada, Las Vegas, political scientist David Damore told The Associated Press that Democrats have lost ground in recent years, but argued Ford still has a viable path if he can make the election a referendum on what he called “the [President Donald] Trump economy”—including cuts to Medicaid and clean energy programs and weakening Las Vegas tourism—while steering clear of divisive identity politics. “A caveat,” Damore added, “is that there is no U.S. Senate race in 2026, which typically injects lots of Democratic resources into the state.” What People Are Saying In response to the poll, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford's campaign spokesman Tai Sims said in a statement: "Voters know that under Joe Lombardo, Nevada is suffering from record high costs, sky-high unemployment, and an economy lagging behind the rest of the nation in job growth—and instead of prioritizing working families, Lombardo has been cheerleader-in-chief for Trump's price-raising agenda," the statement read. "In contrast, Attorney General Ford is a bi-partisan problem solver who has a proven track record of creating good-paying jobs and fighting to lower costs for working families and will continue to be laser-focused on making life easier and more affordable as Nevada's next governor," the statement added. What Happens Next The Nevada governor’s race will take place during the 2026 general election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
