Copyright Newsweek
Democrat Rob Sand holds a narrow lead in the race for governor in Iowa, a state that backed President Donald Trump in each of his presidential runs, according to a new survey from a Democratic-aligned pollster. Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Sand and GOP U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, who is also running, for comment via email. Why It Matters Iowa was a swing state for much of the 2000s, backing former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012 before shifting rightward in 2016. But Democrats are hopeful Sand, the incumbent Iowa state auditor who has won in the past despite the state’s conservative shift, can make the gubernatorial race competitive next year, particularly depending on the effects of Trump’s tariffs, which have been a concern for the state’s farming industry. The new poll underscores the competitive nature of the race. What To Know A new poll released Thursday provides an early look at the matchup between Sand and Feenstra, the Republican who represents the state’s northwestern congressional district in the House of Representatives. The poll was conducted by Z to A Research, a Democratic pollster. It found the two candidates in a tight battle, with 45 percent of respondents saying they plan to back Sand and 43 percent saying they are going to vote for Feenstra. Eleven percent were undecided. Sixty-two percent of independents said they plan to vote for Sand, compared with 14 percent who chose Feenstra. Twenty-one percent of independents were undecided. David A.M. Peterson, Lucken political science professor at Iowa State University, told Newsweek on Thursday that despite the state’s Republican lean, this race has a high likelihood of being competitive, in part due to Sand’s candidacy. “Rob Sand is the best possible Democratic candidate for this race,” he said. “He has some pretty high name recognition, and his negatives aren’t as high as many other Democrats would be. He starts from a place Iowans know and at least kind of like him.” Feenstra is not as well known across the state, but is likely to run a “smart and disciplined” campaign, Peterson said. The race may become competitive due to the general mood of the electorate, he added. Trump's popularity in November 2026 will be a key factor in whether Sand can win. “In general, I think the mood of the country is turning against the party in power, which is the Republicans,” he said. “The tariffs are hitting Iowa particularly hard, and people are particularly unhappy about that as well, so I think we’re going to continue to see this anti-incumbent feel that we had in 2024.” Independent polling on the gubernatorial race has yet to be made public. Iowa voted for Trump by about 13 percentage points in November 2024. It backed him by about 8 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. It last elected a Democratic governor in 2006. Democrats are also hoping to make the Senate race competitive in Iowa next year, as incumbent GOP Governor Joni Ernst said she is not running for reelection. What People Are Saying Peterson also told Newsweek: “Sand is a good solid candidate who has a particularly Iowan appeal to him. Everything from the hunting and fishing that he does, to his love of gas station breakfast pizza, which is a big deal here. He can connect in what a lot of other candidates can’t. Feenstra is, by a lot of definitions, a good legislator. He communicates with his constituents. He responds to emails and phone calls. He tells us what he’s doing in ways others don’t. His staff is very good at that side. I think he’s going to run a smart and disciplined campaign.” Feenstra, on Tuesday in an X post: “I’m running to be the next Governor of Iowa to take our state to new heights. Working with President Trump, we will build a stronger Iowa and keep the liberal, progressive agenda out of our state.” Sand, on Thursday in a post to X: “I'm committed to making Iowa a better place for everyone who calls our state home - and am willing to work with anyone to achieving that goal.” What Happens Next Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as "Leans Republican."
