By Assel Satubaldina,Fatima Kemelova

Copyright astanatimes

ASTANA – Ten years after the Paris Agreement, a new report from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) Initiative takes stock of global progress. Analyzing 21 countries, including Kazakhstan, it concludes that the agreement has spurred new approaches to climate governance and policy in these countries, but also warns that momentum has stalled.

The DDP initiative, led by the Paris-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) under the UN, represents a cross-country network aimed at helping nations develop and share their paths toward greenhouse gas reduction.

The report, titled A Decade of National Climate Action: Stocktake and the Road Ahead, analyzed Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, France, the European Union, Germany, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, and the United States. The array of countries analyzed represents a diversity of geographies, levels of development, and sizes.

What has been the real impact?

At an Oct. 6 virtual press briefing on the launch of the report, DDP Director Henri Waisman said the report poses a “simple but crucial question.” “What has been the real effect of the Paris Agreement 10 years after its signature?” he said.

While progress has been made, emissions continue to rise, and the 1.5 target is what Waisman calls “slips out of reach.”

“These conclusions are widely accepted, and we start from this acknowledgement, but we also want to recognize that they tell only one part of the story. They don’t tell us why progress has been so uneven. They don’t tell us what are the lessons we can draw to strengthen action,” Waisman explained.

He highlighted the importance of adopting a country-centered perspective, “at a time when multilateralism is strained in general, perspectives of global cooperation are fragile.”

“In this challenging context, it is even more essential than ever to understand how climate action is rooted in the social, economic, and political realities of individual countries. This is a key condition to approach cooperation on climate not only as an aspirational objective, a theoretical objective, but in pragmatic and realistic terms,” he said.

Examining countries’ national climate action is not limited to their nationally determined contributions.

“Obviously, these plans, which will be or have been submitted by countries to the international climate process, are extremely important, and they will attract a lot of attention, not only in the lead-up to COP30 [ 2025 UN Climate Change Conference], but it is also essential to recognize that they are only the tip of the iceberg for national climate action. They don’t show the full scope of how climate action is being implemented and governed at the national level. That’s why, in this report, we take a broader view,” he said.

The progress is stalled

Besides the progress, the report reveals shortcomings that explain why the world is still off track.

“The long-term strategies often remain disconnected from concrete policy decisions. Coordination across the diversity of actors involved in climate action remains difficult. Policy actions don’t consider enough some of the key levers for immediate emission reduction success, such as dedicated actions on energy demand, some specific measures in some challenging sectors, like land use and agriculture, for example,” Waisman said.

“And finally, social and industrial objectives continue largely to be seen as potentially contradictory to climate action, which obviously affects the ambition and connection in many countries,” he added.

Waisman said the report calls for stronger institutional frameworks capable of mobilizing a wide range of actors around shared climate goals.

“Climate action obviously is a question for governance, but it’s also a question of ensuring coordination between governance, finance, business, civil society, all actors that will contribute. And having adequate institutional mechanisms is key,” he added.

The second recommendation is to adopt integrated policy packages that cut emissions in the near term while laying the groundwork for a fair, long-term transition aligned with industrial development. The analysis also highlights the need for new forms of international cooperation that respond to national contexts, helping countries overcome barriers in technology, finance, and trade.

“All these lessons can guide national decisions, obviously, but they can also be critical to guide international processes in the run-up, notably to COP30, because it’s only if stronger coordination mechanisms are introduced or put in place that we can accelerate the transformation and enhance ambition consistently to the global goals,” he said.

Findings from Kazakhstan

The report underscored that Kazakhstan’s path to carbon neutrality, a goal the nation pledged to achieve by 2060, depends on the nation’s ability to overcome structural barriers and pursue targeted reforms across five frontiers. They include phasing out coal through a just transition, strengthening climate governance, reforming its carbon pricing system by introducing a minimum carbon price floor of at least $10 per ton of CO2, advancing green industrialization, and mobilizing sustainable finance.

“It is a very good example of a country for which the Paris Agreement played a key role in opening the way the question is approached. Basically, before the Paris Agreement, there were some discussions about green transition, but they were essentially taken with a rather short-term perspective. Now in the country, there is a discussion that really considers the longer-term, more fundamental transformation as that needs to happen. There is a long-term commitment to [carbon] neutrality in the country,” Waisman explained.

According to the report, coal remains a key source of electricity and heat generation, shaping the country’s emissions profile. Agriculture is the second-largest emitter in the country, accounting for 33 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent as of 2022.

“Fuel combustion represents the principal source of Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions, with its share increasing from 52% in 2005 to 69% in 2022. Fugitive emissions, primarily methane from oil, gas, and coal operations, constituted 17% of national GHG emissions in 2005 but declined to 11% by 2022, reflecting modest progress in leak detection and infrastructure improvements,” reads the report.

One of the main drivers behind Kazakhstan’s emissions trend is its aging energy infrastructure, a legacy of the Soviet era. Many power plants continue to run on outdated equipment well beyond their intended lifespan. Estimates suggest that nearly 60% of key generation assets are depreciated, with some plants in an even more advanced state of decline.

Outdated power and heat networks further strain Kazakhstan’s energy system. In some regions, up to 35% percent of electricity is lost before it reaches consumers, which, in turn, fuels higher emissions and reveals the urgent need for modern, low-carbon infrastructure.

“Obviously, there are lots of challenges and difficulties. The coal sector, for example, is obviously a big elephant in the room in the country and something that is not completely solved. But the terms of the discussion have changed, and that’s a very good example of a country that has completely moved its approach to the climate question, opening the possibility for a different way to approach climate, not only as a marginal question on top of all the other topics but really as a more central and structural question,” Waisman explained.

The report describes Kazakhstan’s carbon neutrality strategy as the “culmination of nearly a decade of progressive efforts” to “domesticate” the Paris Agreement. At least $610 billion will be needed for deep decarbonization, and just 4% of it will come from the government.

“More than half of the required financing ($386 billion) is anticipated through reallocation of existing investment plans in the energy, transport, and industrial sectors, while $224 billion will need to come from additional new investments. In the short term, about $10 billion by 2030 is required to kick-start priority decarbonization measures,” reads the report.

Experts point out the challenges in translating “well-articulated” strategic goals into reality. The implementation is further hindered by coal subsidies, delayed energy pricing reforms, and weak enforcement of environmental and energy efficiency standards.

“These issues contribute to a disconnect between ambition and execution, undermining investor confidence and slowing progress,” reads the report.

Waisman said Kazakhstan is not always discussed in global conversations, although he acknowledges the “huge importance” of the nation that sits on substantial coal reserves.

Shifting environment for businesses and investors

Experts also note that Kazakh businesses and investors are increasingly facing a new reality shaped by green finance and tightening carbon rules. With accelerating global green investment, access to finance increasingly depends on sustainability performance.

New international carbon regulations, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), are reshaping prospects for key export sectors, including aluminium, iron and steel, and fertilizers.

Experts in the report project potential export losses to reach $250 million per year by 2035. An expansion of the CBAM to more industries, including petroleum and chemicals, could push Kazakhstan’s potential annual losses beyond $1.4 billion.

“In parallel, the rapid diffusion of ESG reporting standards and carbon footprint disclosure requirements – often demanded by foreign partners and international capital markets – are placing increasing pressure on Kazakhstani companies to improve transparency and align with global low-carbon practices,” reads the report.

Just transition

Kazakhstan’s climate agenda cannot be separated from its economic realities. The country’s reliance on oil and gas revenues to support the economy makes climate transition more complex.

There are questions on the social dimension of this transition. Experts suggest the government should foster policies that support workers and communities dependent on fossil fuel industries.

“Employment transitions remain a critical blind spot: coal regions such as Karaganda and Pavlodar still host tens of thousands of jobs directly linked to the fossil fuel economy, yet no comprehensive national just transition strategy has been adopted,” reads the report.