Copyright Santa Clarita Valley Signal
In the broadest sense, political campaigns resemble military operations with mission goals, strategic plans to achieve them, logistical support and tactical maneuvers to weaken opposing forces. However, as Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke observed in 1871,“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.” In other words, once a political campaign is launched, it can be undermined by events that even the most comprehensive strategy could not anticipate. The “X factor,” as some have dubbed it, can dominate the outcome. Notable examples abound, including Richard Nixon’s sweaty image during his 1960 television debate with a cool and telegenic John Kennedy, the revelations about Gary Hart’s swinger lifestyle that sank his 1988 presidential campaign and, just last year, Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Donald Trump that forced him to abandon his re-election campaign. We may be seeing another implosion in the still-embryonic campaigns over who will succeed Gavin Newsom as governor. After former Vice President Kamala Harris opted out and three announced candidates — Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former state Senate leader Toni Atkins and state Treasurer Fiona Ma — dropped out, former Congresswoman Katie Porter emerged as the frontrunner. However, Porter, who lost a U.S. Senate bid last year, has just 17% in the latest polling, with rivals mired in single-digits. Meanwhile, oddsmakers wait for two other potentials, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and L.A. businessman Rick Caruso, to declare their intentions. Last month, Porter’s campaign suffered a double dose of notoriety that could be fatal — videos of her saying and doing things that undermine her carefully curated image of a single mom who holds the rich and powerful accountable. The first was an interview with CBS reporter Julie Watts, who pressed her repeatedly about whether she would seek support from among the nearly 40% of California voters who backed Donald Trump last year. Porter complained that Watts was asking multiple questions about the issue and threatened to end the interview if Watts persisted. The three-minute excerpt of the interview exploded on YouTube and on social media, and Porter’s rivals jumped in with criticism and suggestions that she drop out of the race. That led to another video surfacing on Politico, a website devoted to politics, in which Porter, during a 2021 interview, snapped at one of her staffers who was trying to help her respond on an issue, “Get out of my f—— shot.” When the staffer tried to explain, Porter shot back, “OK, you also were in my shot before that. Stay out of my shot.” The Nixon, Hart and Biden incidents had massive effects on their presidential campaigns, not because they hinged on foreign policy, the economy or any other substantive issue, but because they damaged their personal images. As the two Porter videos ping pong through the electronic universe — and are constantly repeated in television and internet ads by her rivals — they undermine her likeability, making her the issue, rather than the positions she takes to hopefully sway voters. It’s a classic example of the X factor, one that could easily alter the gubernatorial campaign’s dynamics. It might persuade Padilla, who acknowledges he is weighing a bid for governor, that it’s a campaign he could win. Ditto for Caruso if he also believes Porter’s self-inflicted wounds are fatal. The campaigns to succeed Newsom were already unusual, with so many potential candidates dropping in, dropping out or lounging somewhere in between scarcely a year before voters will have the last word. Porter’s image woes are still another contributor to the fluid battlefield of California politics. Dan Walters’ commentary is distributed by CalMatters, a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters.
