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Throughout history, whether Populist or Potentate, there was always one way for a politico to get himself out of trouble on the Homefront…kill some people overseas. (Preferably impoverished, frequently blameless.) Naturally, we in America have reached a far more enlightened view of things in Current Year. Therefore, we no longer send our Soldiers out to die on a whim. Rather, we use missiles to blow things up. Which brings us to Venezuela, in case you were wondering. Is Venezuela in Colombia? The average voter, busying himself with finding groceries now that SNAP is cut off…herself attempting to find a sitter for the kids now that Headstart is closed…theyselves hoping to be recalled to their non-job which they cannot quit but which has not been paying them for the past 30-days-and-counting…likely has a few other things to worry about… (After all, there's also those quadrupling of prices for Health Care on the way this month!) So no worries as well as no shame, because good "ol Somerset has you covered, Sportsfans. And by the way, no, Venezuela is not in Colombia, but they're neighbors, and yes, Trump has been threatening to blow them both to smithereens…and do the same to Nigeria as well…not to be confused with Nairobi (Capital of Kenya), nor Niger (immediately above) or even Namibia (way down to south). Back to Caracas Caracas would be the capital of Venezuela, which has been ruled by one Nicolas Maduro since 2013, when his predecessor Hugo Chavez, who served from 1999 until 2013, passed away. Some claim they are both Socialists…others say they are Communists…but for our purpose, who cares? People say a lot of things. Whatever he was, Chavez won his fourth term with over 55% of the vote, so his electorate liked him. As for Maduro, he was re-elected in 2018 and 2025, with over 50% of the total. Each was claimed to have violated electoral norms…but that is what the United States claims about everyone who raises their hackles; may be true, may be not. Again, it's another country, so who cares? One thing Your Humble Correspondent will say with certainty is whatever manner one characterizes these men, their policies have largely been detrimental to their society as a whole. When I was younger, a Venezuelan was the crème-de-la-crème of fashion and style. No joke. If you had the charm, the look and the suit in that neck of the woods, you were fino chevere. Now? You're more likely to be an economic migrant somewhere. One Small Thing About Venezuela The minor thing would be Oil…and it's pretty major. Did you know…(you didn't, but you get a pass for being intelligent enough to read here to find out)…that Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia? Or that Venezuela has more oil reserves than the United States of America, the largest global producer of oil? Or that Venezuela in fact has five times the oil resources as Uncle Sam sitting below his rump? That's a lot of Black Gold, Sonny. Guess who likes gold? (HINT: He's building a new ballroom in Washington.) Correct! Donald Trump is hankering for that bubblin' crude. Also…Biden was salivating…Further…Bammy was gyrating…so this is a bi-partisan issue of Regime Change with Librocrats as neck-deep in sludge as Republicrooks…with the methane burn-off apparent a continent away. There is another factoid to be aware before we transition to the following section; that being, Venezuela has decrepit oil infrastructure (at which the U. S. excels in refurbishing) and as of today produces less oil than they did thirty years ago (and which makes U. S. wildcatters weep bitter tears). Lots of idle gilding waiting to be liberated by "any means necessary”. Alright, The Eternal Question, Why Now? Here's the rub. It ain't chafing from drug smugglers down at The Pirate Cove who recently got exposed by The Hardy Boys. Naw, it's much simpler than all that…Trump is putting the screws to China and India to quit buying Russian oil. The same with Europe, as well. Furthermore, he may or may not (READ AS: he may did), allow the Ukrainians to do "long-range” bombing against oil fields in Russia proper. That's crazy, but hey, that's Trump. When Europe got all high-horsey over Kiev back in 2022 home heating skyrocketed in Europe. In Great Britain there was a national crisis. In Germany, from 2021 to 2024 home heating rose by 80%. Clearly, this was not all owing to oil, with natural gas also playing a large role. But the fact remains, there was and there is a reason Europe keeps shelling out for Moscow oil via Third Party distributors. Moreover, the Slavs are major oil producers with around one-tenth of the total. Should Don get his way, that means very soon gasoline (in addition the above) will rise not merely in Europe but over in the Western Hemisphere as well. What to do? A fifty-cent upward spike in gas has sundered many an administration. Except! What if…(said the Alphabet Agency planner in a dank basement somewhere)…we did a whole Regime Switcho-Chango and Presto!…plenty of oil to go around…meaning, to go to us…and keep Turmp in office. (INCIDENTAL: Alphabet Agency kickback to be determined at a later date.) And that, children, is precisely what they did. You Are Here Now, this does not conclusively mean we are going to war. Especially not a proverbial "ground invasion” because…anyone?….anyone?…there is a single thing Americans hate more than paying fifty cents more for gas…and that's a foreign war that benefits a few policy planners to the detriment of everyone else. So, no, a ground invasion is highly unlikely. Dead Soldiers do not make for good poll numbers. Explosions? Now you're talking, Dr. Strangelove! Explosions we can do all day! At the moment there are, depending on sources, between 9 and 11 U. S. warships in-theater. By the time you are reading, there will be 15 U. S. warships in total. That makes around 10,000 to 16,000 Soldiers and Sailors already situated, come the USS Gerald R. Ford steaming its way over with another 4,000 personnel. While it seems significant, that is not enough for a land assault even with a strategic weapon superiority. Instead? This appears to be an Intimidation Tactic to cause Maduro to fear such an invasion. It's just enough to be plausible, if not probable. Then are the tens of hundreds of missiles of all types scattered over the fleet. The Ford itself has another 70 warplanes. And capacity for 25 more if necessary. (Whether there is a contingent of Haliburton executives aboard is as-yet unascertained.) Timeline, Timeline One difference between the professionals and the players of boardgames is The Timeline. Or, Logistics. The Timeline is always the most important aspect of a military action. By next week the timeframe for action will be approximately one month. That's when ships will be required to leave for refueling and resupply, as the outermost prospect. Conversely, this week, Tuesday, November 4, 2025, are elections in New York, Virginia and Washington states. That is important to recollect because if Democrats do better than anticipated, such will be read as referendum on the Government Shutdown as well as on Trump himself. Accordingly, the Mail-In Early Voting shows an increase in Democratic turnout by 2 percent over last election. As for In-Person Early Voting the swing is greater, of nearly 4 percent. Ergo, Donnie may need a quick distraction and a carpet bombing is always good for the cameras. In-between our two extremes, the Government Shutdown could persist. While markets believe electoral returns favorable to Democrats may induce them to "declare victory”, that is neophyte planning. Absent progress on the enormous increases in Health Care, which shall become more apparent every day as November progresses, there is no reason to make a deal; particularly not with public support. In addition, even as the largest Federal Workers Union last week called for the Government Shutdown to cease, several other Unions have now come out in support of Democratic intransigence; correctly realizing that pain now will preserve Food Benefits, Health Care and several other Social Services later. So it is by no means a forgone conclusion the Government Shutdown ends this week…or next… Indeed, this weekend the Government sent notifications to Workers they should anticipate furlough the entire month of November, with a caveat this might be extended another 30 days after that period. Could it end tomorrow? Yes. Could it end next month? Also yes. Anyone who claims they know is trying to sell you something. Finally, Shock and Awe, and Aw Shucks Trump will likely use his toy boats to entice Maduro to retire. There will be a force tactic in that Maduro will refuse…then rampant missile-ry will commence…then Maduro will reiterate…then more missile-ry…then Maduro will relent. If Trump is adjudged the loser of the elections this week, he will need such a "win”. For what it is worth, there are always the Variables to consider. Such as: a SNAP riot somewhere, or a single mother shot dead by an overzealous security guard in some random convenience store when she is stealing, or any other nonsense people seem to engage these days. Yet, as it is, this is how it looks. The only thing I would emphasize is while this is all terrible Foreign Policy if any so much as begin to claim, "Trump is a Dictator!” I will slap the cream corn out your mouth. Have you never heard of World War Two? It was the cause of the end of The Great Depression. Courtesy of Liberal Franklin Roosevelt. So don't get puffed up in terms of politics, Chum. Because…When the American economy fails, foreigners always have to die. Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America
