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Cowboys vs. Packers prediction

Cowboys vs. Packers prediction

ARLINGTON, Texas — It’s finally here. The Week 4 edition of “Sunday Night Football” between the Dallas Cowboys (1-2) and the Green Bay Packers (2-1) isn’t a playoff game, but the excitement around it is.
Dallas will welcome All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons back to AT&T Stadium after owner and general manager Jerry Jones traded Parsons a week before the season began. Jones felt that was the better course of action instead of extending the 26-year-old who joined Pro Football Hall of Famer Reggie White as the only two players with at least 12 sacks in their first four seasons.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott couldn’t be facing Parsons, sack leader Rashan Gary (4.5) and the Packers’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense (14.7 points per game allowed) at a worse time. He will be without key offensive starters in center Cooper Beebe (ankle sprain), wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (ankle sprain) and right guard Tyler Booker (ankle sprain). It will be mostly up to wide receiver George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson to break open quickly for Prescott before Parsons and Gary can bulldoze their way into the backfield.
“It’ll definitely be fun,” Prescott said Thursday, thinking about facing Parsons in a game for the first time. “Yeah, me and my fiancée were just talking about that the other day and just all the reps of practice, going against Micah in times when he couldn’t hit me. Whether him getting back there, just the trash talk back and forth, me telling him he wouldn’t tackle me anyways, he still can’t bring me down. You got to get to that point. Just getting to go out there and compete with a guy that’s a good friend that I’ve competed with in a number of ways throughout this building and outside of this building. Yeah, just excited to go and have that matchup. But he’s got five guys up front, plus tight ends and running backs that he’s got to get through. Then, we’ll worry about if he can get to me.”
On the other side of the ball, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love will look to dismantle Dallas’ struggling defense in a similar fashion to their 48-32 NFC wild card round victory in 2023. Love greatly enjoys taking shots downfield, as his 9.1 air yards per pass attempt average ranks fourth-most in the NFL this season. The Cowboys have allowed opponents to connect for five passing touchdowns of 20 or more air yards, the most in the league through three weeks. The next closest team has allowed just two passing touchdowns of 20 or more air yards.
“That’s what their offense is, they push the ball downfield. They’re hunting shots all the time, and that’s what Matt does a great job of. Really good offensive coordinator, one of the best in the league,” Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus said. “That’s their offense, and couple that with a talented quarterback that can push the ball downfield. Very strong arm, accurate, very elusive in the pocket. Can get out and run as well when he needs to, so it’s a big challenge.”
Where to watch Cowboys vs. Packers live
When: Sunday, Sept. 28 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: NBC | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -6.5; O/U 47.5 (via FanDuel)
Click here to bet Packers vs. Cowboys at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Cowboys vs. Packers: Biggest questions
Can Dallas get Javonte Williams and the ground game going to take some pressure off Dak Prescott?
Cowboys Pro Bowl left guard Tyler Smith said the key for the offense will be winning on first and second down. What he means by that is establishing the run and keeping the Cowboys in down and distances in which they can run or pass. That will mean feeding running back Javonte Williams early and often.
He’s fresh off a solid Week 3 performance at the Chicago Bears in which he ran for 76 yards on 10 carries, and he’ll likely need at least 20 carries to keep Parsons and Gary at bay when Prescott drops back to pass. Williams is averaging 3.72 yards after contact per carry, the sixth-best in the league among 30 running backs with at least 30 carries, and his 5.3 overall yards per carry average this season is the eighth-best in the league among players with at least 30 carries.
Despite Jones’ perception that Parsons’ run defense is lacking, as well as the Packers trading away one of their top run-stuffers in three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark, Green Bay has been elite at stopping the run early on this season. It ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed (63.4) and yards per carry allowed (3.2).
Will Dallas be able to pressure Jordan Love?
The Cowboys clearly have a gaping, Parsons-sized hole in their defense. Dallas’ 40.2% team quarterback pressure rate with Parsons on the roster from 2021-24 was the best in the NFL. Without him in 2025, Dallas has a 29.9% QB pressure rate, the seventh-worst through three weeks. This season in Green Bay, Parsons has produced the highest quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) among all edge rushers, even though he’s been double-teamed at the highest rate (18.4%) at his position, according to Next Gen Stats.
Love’s teammate for five seasons, Clark identified pressuring Love as the best way to slow down the Packers’ rocket-armed passer. The numbers certainly back up the new Dallas defensive tackle’s assessment. Love leads the league in completion percentage (84.3%) and yards per pass attempt (11.0) when not pressured in 2025. He ranks second in the NFL in passer rating (behind only Lamar Jackson) when given a clean pocket. There’s a stark contrast, however, when opposing pass rushes get in his face.
Jordan Love when pressured vs. when not pressured (2025 season)PressuredNot Pressured
Comp Pct
37.0%*
84.3%**
Yards/Pass attempt
3.8
11.0**
Air yards/Pass attempt9.09.1**
TD-INT
0-0
5-1
Passer rating
48.8
136.9**
Sacks taken
7
0
* Bottom five in NFL | ** Top five in NFL
The hope for the Cowboys to actually get home against Love is for veteran edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney to look revitalized at the age of 32 and for Eberflus to get more aggressive with his defensive play-calling. Eberflus’ predecessors — Dan Quinn (2021-2023) and Mike Zimmer (2024) — each ranked top 10 in the league in blitz rate.
“That would be a simple answer,” Eberflus said of blitzing more. “Blitzing is good, but rushing four and dropping the rest of the guys (back into coverage) is good, too. So you have to mix it and match it up.”
Cowboys vs. Packers prediction
If the Cowboys can’t get Williams and the run game going early, Prescott could take an absolute beating from Parsons, Gary and the Packers pass rush while playing without two offensive line starters and Lamb. Yes, Cowboys All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) returning in Week 4 after missing the last two weeks should help, but even he won’t be able to mask the pass rush AND secondary issues Dallas is dealing with at the moment.