Berry Tramel
Tulsa World Sports Columnist
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We’ve reached the point in the college football season when it’s time to start gauging offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s a formula I’ve been charting since 2013.
College football statistical rankings drive me nuts. Ranking offenses and defenses by yards and yards per game is silly. It’s like ranking baseball offenses by how many runners you get to second base.
The name of offense is scoring, not yardage. The game of defense is not limiting yards, it’s limiting scoring. So I now gauge offenses and defenses by how often they score or keep opponents from scoring, in relation to opportunities. An offense that gets 14 possessions in a game usually will score more than an offense that gets eight possessions in a game. Same with the defense in keeping opponents from scoring.
The other kooky element of college football statistics is in the inclusion of all games. Or even just all games against Division I-A opponents.
But OSU’s performance against Tennessee-Martin or Tulsa is not germane to much of anything, compared to the Cowboys’ peers. So all of my efficiency ratings are limited only to data from games against power-conference opponents. Sometimes, you can get burned. A game against Boise State is going to be more relevant than a game against Northwestern. But for the most part, drawing the line at power-conference foes is a much better gauge.
So here are the initial Big 12 efficiency ratings for 2025, and a couple of things to ponder: 1) Early-season ratings won’t mean as much, since schools like Houston and Texas Tech have played just two power-conference foes each, while Baylor has played five; 2) This dismal OSU season almost surely is going to relegate the Cowboys to the bottom of these ratings, so don’t stress out. Use the ratings to see what OSU’s future could look like, in terms of the level of performance needed to compete.
A quick explainer of the formula. I give full credit for a touchdown, and I give 0.4 credit for a field goal. Score one touchdown and kick one field goal in eight total possessions, you would divide 1.4 by eight and get a .175 rating. Which is very poor.
And the defenses are rated by the offensive efficiency they allow.
In recent years, offenses in the .300s are OK; anything more is really good, anything less is not so good.
Offense
1. Utah .471: An inflated number that will go down. The Utes have exploded on UCLA and West Virginia, two of the worst teams in America.
2. Cincinnati .433: This is a legit number. The Bearcats have played three solid teams in Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa State.
3. Texas Christian .414: Only Arizona State slowed the Horned Frogs, who also have played North Carolina, Southern Methodist and Colorado.
4. Baylor .404: Offense isn’t the problem for the Bears, who have played Auburn, SMU, Arizona State, OSU and Kansas State.
5. Brigham Young .400: Cougars aren’t likely to keep this up. Their schedule of Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia will get much tougher.
6. Kansas .391: KU looks like it can score against most anybody, though its efficiency against Missouri was just .309.
7. Texas Tech .377: Red Raiders’ only two power-conference foes have been Utah and Houston, but Tech looks promising.
8. Iowa State .366: Solid offense, which has been on display against a variety of legit foes, including Iowa, K-State and Cincinnati.
9. Central Florida .335: UCF has played North Carolina and both Kansas schools.
10. Kansas State .319: Wildcats already have played four power-conference foes, so this might be who KSU is.
11. Arizona State .291: Surprised? I am. ASU didn’t light up Mississippi State, Baylor or TCU.
12. Arizona .290: Wildcats have got to be better than what they’ve been against Kansas State, Iowa State and OSU. If you’re near the bottom this early after playing the Cowboys, it could be a long season.
13. Colorado .288: Deion Sanders’ quarterback juggling didn’t really work.
14. Houston .267: Not enough data, having played just Colorado and Tech.
15. West Virginia .213: Even in the Backyard Brawl win over Pittsburgh, the Mountaineers’ offensive efficiency was just .243.
16. Oklahoma State .125: This is a horrible number and it might not get better, for while Oregon is stout, the defenses of Arizona and Baylor are not.
Defense
1. Texas Tech .104: Again, too early.
2. Brigham Young .219: The Cougars have remade themselves into a defensive culture, so maybe this number has legs.
3. Arizona .232: Getting to defend OSU in 14 possessions padded this number.
4. Utah .265: Tech had a .343 efficiency against the Utes. Solid defense.
5. TCU .271: With both Arizona State and SMU already behind them, the Frogs seem to be playing good D.
6. Iowa State .284: Considered one of the Big 12’s best defenses until Cincinnati torched the Cyclones last Saturday with five touchdowns and a field goal in 11 possessions.
7. Kansas State .293: Defense might have to carry K-State the rest of the year.
8. Arizona State .300: Good defense, considering TCU and Baylor are in the rearview mirror.
9. Central Florida .333: A little surprising to see the Knights this solid, though it helps to have played North Carolina (one TD, one field goal in eight possessions).
10. Houston .333: Too early.
11. Kansas .345: Not bad; if the Jayhawks can keep up this rate, they will win quite a few games.
12. Baylor .393: Not good at all, after five power-conference foes.
13. Cincinnati .400: The Bearcats need better defense. Kansas, in particular, dented UC, with four touchdowns and two field goals in nine possessions.
14. Colorado .420: Long year for Colorado. Four power-conference foes, and all four (Georgia Tech, Houston, BYU and TCU) have each had success.
15. West Virginia .421: Mountaineers really starting to get roughed up.
16. Oklahoma State .505: Believe it or not, this is only marginally worse than how the Cowboys finished in 2024 (.489).
Score projectionsThis formula allows you to prognosticate the scores of upcoming games, meshing the efficiency numbers with the number of possessions likely to be faced. These numbers will get more accurate later in the season.
Houston at OSU: Cougars 34-20. It will be tough for the Cowboys to reach 20.
Arizona State at Utah: Utes 29-21. Wow. Didn’t see that score coming.
BYU at Arizona: Cougars 25-21. Sounds about right.
TCU at Kansas State: Horned Frogs 28-24. Another close loss for the Wildcats. Who could dispute?
Iowa State at Colorado: Cyclones 28-20. ISU would take this score.
Kansas at Texas Tech: Red Raiders 30-20. Can anyone stop Tech?
Central Florida at Cincinnati: Bearcats 27-26. Wow. Close game. Remember, this model doesn’t factor in homefield. You’re on your own for that.
berry.tramel@tulsaworld.com
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Berry Tramel
Tulsa World Sports Columnist
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