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Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer said Wednesday that his party thinks the government is trying to force another election by preparing a budget that the Opposition won't support. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is due to table this government's first budget next week and it's expected to include major investments in the military, housing and support for workers and businesses affected by the U.S. trade war, but also some sizable cuts to other spending. So far, he hasn't received a commitment from any party to fall in line. The Liberals hold a minority of seats and need at least one parliamentary dance partner — the Bloc Québécois, the Conservatives or the NDP — to usher that budget through the House of Commons. If the Liberals can't cobble together enough support on the vote approving the budget, the government could fall and Canadians could be headed for an election less than a year after the last one. The 2024 budget was tabled in April and a vote on it happened two weeks later, which means an election could be triggered as soon as next month if this year's budget vote follows the same timeline. Government House leader Steven MacKinnon has said he's concerned about getting enough votes for the budget. "When I see opposition parties ruling out the possibility of voting for the budget, that's starting to worry me," MacKinnon told reporters on Parliament Hill last week. In an interview with CBC's Rosemary Barton Live on Sunday, MacKinnon said: "As we speak right now, we don’t have the votes." Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made a series of demands of the Liberal government in exchange for his party's votes on the budget — demands that are highly unlikely to be met. Poilievre wants Ottawa to dump the industrial carbon tax, which he has started calling "a hidden tax on food," make income and capital gains tax cuts and still keep the the deficit at $42 billion or less. The industrial carbon tax is central to the government's climate policy, especially after it scrapped the consumer carbon tax. Prime Minister Mark Carney already cut income taxes, and the deficit is likely to be much higher than $42 billion given what the Liberals have committed to spend to build up the armed forces and spur housing development. "It's becoming clear the government is going to use their costly budget as an excuse for costly elections," Scheer told reporters after question period. "But there is an alternative. They could bring in what Conservatives are calling for and that is an affordable budget for an affordable life for Canadians." Scheer said he thinks the government wants an election to "hide from the fact that they have not been able to deliver on their promises," an apparent reference to the stalled tariff talks with the Americans. In question period, MacKinnon said Poilievre's demands are outlandish — "he's making proposals that he wouldn't even put in his own election platform six months ago," he said — and the Conservatives should support the budget because the Liberal Party got a mandate from voters. "There will be an affordable budget for an affordable life presented in this House. We certainly hope the Opposition leader will order his troops to vote for it instead of ordering the very nervous ones to vote against it and cause a very expensive Christmas election here in Canada," MacKinnon said. The Bloc has also made demands that are likely a non-starter given the government is intent on reining in spending. In exchange for their votes, the Bloc wants to see increased Old Age Security payouts, more generous health transfers to the provinces, interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers and more infrastructure spending for Quebec and elsewhere. This leaves the NDP as a possible lifeline. That party, which doesn't have official status in Parliament and is currently leaderless, has seven MPs who could give the Liberals the votes they need to get the budget through. But, given the Liberal commitment to cut spending, the social democratic party may balk at supporting it. While not making specific demands, interim leader Don Davies has said his party wants targeted investments to "support working families squeezed by high prices," "good jobs," affordable homes and investments to "strengthen public health care." "It's up to the Carney government to deliver them," Davies said in a statement after the prime minister delivered a budget-related speech last week. In an interview with CBC's Power & Politics on Tuesday, Davies said "now is the time to invest" and his party won't support a budget that includes deep cuts. Unlike the other parties that have essentially ruled out supporting the budget, Davies said he wants to see what's actually in the document before making a firm commitment. "We can't accept an austerity approach," Davies told host David Cochrane. "We're going to wait and see what the budget says."
