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DISTRUST AND COMPETITION The present thaw between India and China is happening at a time of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on both countries. China sees the imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports to the United States as an opportunity to pull India out of the American sphere of influence. However, for New Delhi, whose great power ambition is inherently linked to forging closer strategic ties with the United States, it could mostly be a question of managing its relations with China without sacrificing its core interests. Not surprisingly, Modi’s China visit in August was preceded by a two-day official tour to Tokyo. He returned home without attending the Victory Day Parade in Beijing, which celebrated China’s victory over Japan at the end of World War II. In July, senior Indian military officials accused China of logistically assisting Pakistan during the brief India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025. China’s attempts to develop trilateral arrangements with Pakistan and Bangladesh on the one hand, and Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other, continue to heighten New Delhi’s longstanding concerns of being encircled by a Chinese “string of pearls”. For China, India’s evasive commitment to a “One China policy” and strengthening ties with Taiwan remain irritants. The issue of the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation and advice by an Indian Cabinet minister for the matter to be treated internally by Tibetans has drawn Chinese ire, with China going on to describe it as a “thorn” in bilateral relations. And on trade, the Indian media is currently abuzz with talk of new curbs on specialty fertilisers from China. As each side attempts to normalise relations and portray a detente as a strategic necessity, neither country is shying away from issues that divide them or invoke leverage points. This makes the status quo somewhat unreal and extremely unstable. The possibility of armed conflict between the two is remote. But deep distrust and competition will remain the defining features of their relations. Dr Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is the founder and president of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), a senior research fellow at University of Massachusetts Amherst, and visiting faculty at the Naval War College, Goa, India. This article was first published on Lowy Institute's The Interpreter.
