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It would be a dramatic departure from how previous innovation affected demand for workers. As Huben Liu and his coauthors explain, until the 1980s IT revolution, most advances in automation supplanted manual effort while supporting cognitive tasks. Take, for instance, Irving Colburn’s early-20th-century invention of a machine to substitute hand-blown glass in window panes. The blowers’ wages fell 40 per cent. Within one generation, mechanisation drove an entire class of artisans out of business. By contrast, the arrival of electronic calculators in the 1970s helped accountants and auditors to become more productive. It didn’t replace them. The tilt toward services such as finance and health care favoured women, facilitating their entry into the workforce as 20th-century innovations also eased the burden of domestic chores. HARD-WON GAINS MAY NOW REVERSE Over time, these improvements went global, but the hard-won gains may now reverse. With the capital costs of implementing AI expected to become cheaper each year, cognitive tasks that don’t require at least five years of specific vocational preparation will be at risk from automation, the researchers say. That includes many entry-level jobs, such as analysing financial statements at Wall Street firms. Mechanised production of sheet glass did little to hurt women. At the cusp of automation in 1900, they held few of the 53,000 jobs in the US glass industry. Employers preferred men. In 1900, the industry employed twice as many children under 16 as women.
