The conversations around college are changing.
I hear them when I talk to my high school age nephews when they say they’re interested in pursuing other dreams besides higher education (one nephew, a music producer, the other, an aspiring model), or when I scroll through social media and see posts from friends who are parents about the rising costs of school. All different situations, but one thing rings true: families are doing a lot more math before they commit to a four-year degree. And honestly, can you blame them?
This fall, U.S. colleges are bracing for a 15% drop in enrollment — a number that would’ve seemed unthinkable a decade ago. Yes, tuition is expensive. Yes, there are fewer high school graduates because of demographic shifts. But there’s also a deeper question shaping this moment: does the investment actually pay off anymore (I say this as someone who also carries more than $200K in law school student loan debt)?
That question barely existed when I was graduating in the early 2000s (but don’t do the math when you try to figure out my age). Especially growing up in a Caribbean household. But today’s landscape looks very different.
The demographic reality alone is staggering. High school graduates in the U.S. are expected to peak around 3.9 million this year, then decline to about 3.4 million by 2041. International students, who make up around 6% of undergrads, are dealing with tougher visa requirements thanks to our current administration. And there are 45 million adults out there who started college but never finished. When unemployment is low like it’s been, those folks tend to stay at their jobs instead of going back to school. (Historically, adult enrollment spikes during economic downturns, so a weaker job market could shift that trend.)
It’s not just about the cost though. It’s about whether that cost leads anywhere. More than half of college graduates start their careers underemployed, and nearly half are still underemployed a decade later.
Ken Ruggiero, CEO of Ascent, told ESSENCE that the way families think about college is shifting. “Beyond demographics, students and families are approaching higher education with more discernment, weighing financial cost against likely career outcomes. This doesn’t mean college has lost its value; rather, it reflects a growing insistence that the investment deliver meaningful returns.”
That “meaningful return” is where many families feel lost. Financial aid letters are notoriously confusing. Private loan terms are often buried in fine print. And many schools still don’t clearly show how graduates are actually doing in the job market. When families have access to honest, transparent information — from scholarship opportunities to realistic salary data — they can make more informed decisions.
So what helps families feel less overwhelmed by all this? According to Ruggiero, it comes down to having clear information about financing options. When you can actually see what you’re signing up for, including federal aid, scholarships, private loans, repayment plans, and what happens if you need to defer payments, you can make better decisions.
“Clear, honest financing options can change the entire decision process,” Ruggiero says. “When families have easy access to all the pieces from federal aid and scholarships to private loan terms, repayment plans, and deferment options, they can make educated choices instead of being overwhelmed by uncertainty or hidden costs.”
Some lenders and education companies are trying to fill that gap. Ascent, for example, offers tools to calculate potential salaries and debt-to-income ratios, and even connects students to paid internships to boost employability. But the broader shift has to happen at the institutional level. New federal regulations will soon require colleges to report student outcomes — from job placement rates to average post-grad salaries — giving applicants more power to choose wisely.
“Colleges that are upfront about all costs, aid eligibility, and student outcomes stand out as student-focused and supportive,” Ruggiero says. “Showing that graduates can afford their education because of the jobs they secure post-college helps families make more confident, informed decisions.”
The so-called ‘enrollment cliff’ as they’ve been calling it, isn’t disappearing anytime soon but maybe, that’s the wake up call that we all need (and this administration may actually pay attention to). It’s forcing higher education to evolve into something more accountable, more transparent, and more connected to the real world. And for students and families, it’s a reminder that higher education isn’t a one-size-fits-all path anymore. Whether it’s a four-year university, community college, trade school, or direct-to-workforce training, the most important question is no longer Where are you going? — it’s What will it be worth?