Week 5 was insane! There was upsets everywhere as someone who was at Penn State for the White Out loss to Oregon, wow, what a week to remember!
However, it wasn’t my best week betting. I went 2-7 and suffered heartbreak with Pitt blowing a 17-0 lead and my rushing props going 0-4. So, no more props! Let’s bounce back in Week 6 with my favorite game picks for Saturday! Best of luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Kentucky at #12 Georgia (-20.5): O/U 48.5
Georgia is coming off a loss to Alabama and returns to Athens for homecoming versus Kentucky, who is playing its second straight road game. This is a spot where I really like the Bulldogs and think they don’t waste any time getting out to an early lead.
The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS for the full game spread this season, but I do like this for the first cover. If I lose the first quarter spread of -6.5 (-125), then I will likely bet on Georgia at a discount price, but let’s talk about why the Bulldogs could cover at least a 7-0 first quarter.
Kentucky had three explosive double-digit yard plays on the first drive at South Carolina and four overall in 10-7 first-quarter lead. After that, the Wildcats fumbled twice, threw two interceptions, and turned the ball over on downs — that was all in the second quarter. This team is a mess, and it didn’t get any better with two punts and a field goal on 20 plays.
In a loss to Ole Miss, Kentucky punted on both its first-quarter drives before the Rebels quarterback threw an interception on his own 31 and gave the Wildcats a short field and a third first-quarter possession.
I do not believe Kentucky gets more than two first-quarter possessions, and the excitement for Georgia’s homecoming gives them a boost post-Bama loss. I like the Dawgs’ first quarter spread of -6.5 for -135 odds and full game of -20.5 (-110 odds).
Pick: Georgia 1Q -6.5 (1.5 units), Georgia -20.5 (1 unit)
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame (-21): O/U 62.5
Notre Dame’s offense has been a tank over the past two games with 112 points. The Irish didn’t have their true identiy against Miami and put up 24 points, then 40 on Mike Elko’s Texas A&M defense in a second loss before 56 points in each of the previous two wins.
However, the defense for the Irish has had issues, primarily in the pass rush and secondary.
Boise State is one of the best run-blocking grades in the country, and owns a three-headed running back committee compared to a one-man show last season. Three different Broncos’ backs have at least 30 carries, and they all average 5.8 yards per carry or better (6.4, 7.5).
The Broncos’ Maddux Madsen has much better passing numbers when using play-action, so I expect Boise to find a way to score 20-plus points and take advantage of a weak pass rush and exploitable secondary. I played Boise’s Team Total Over 20.5 at -130 odds.
Pick: Boise State Team Total Over 20.5 (1 unit)
#14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5): O/U 54.5
Iowa State is down their two starting cornerbacks for the season in the previous game, Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper. The two have 55 combined starts and were AP All-Big 12 picks in previous seasons.
The Cyclones’ depth is called into question now against PFF’s No. 1 passer, Brenden Sorsby. That is likely why the spread flipped from Iowa State -2 to Cincinnati -1.5.
Sorbsy is a former Hoosier, but this year he has 14 total touchdowns, one interception, the 6th-best QBR (87.6), and a ridiculous 61-of-82 passing over the previous three games. The Bearcats are at home and coming off a 37-34 thriller against Kansas, in which Cincy scored the go-ahead touchdown with 29 seconds remaining.
Iowa State dominated Arizona off a bye, but with back-to-back road games on deck and down two corners against a good passing attack, I like the Bearcats to lead at the half (-122 odds) and think they win this game.
Pick: Cincinnati 1H ML (1 unit)
#7 Penn State (-24.5) at UCLA: O/U 48.5
Penn State is coming off its first loss of the season and could not have asked for a better Big Ten matchup. The UCLA Bruins have one of the worst defenses in the Power 4. UCLA is dead last in defensive success rate, 130th against the pass, and 134th versus the run.
James Fraklin and Penn State should be able to run the ball all over UCLA and establish a script from the start of this one. The game being at 3:30 PM ET is also beneficial with it being a West Coast contest for Penn State and their first road game. Penn State has not covered a spread yet this season (0-4 ATS), and coming off a loss, I like that to happen here.
I also think Penn State scores at least three touchdowns in the first half here, so I played the Nittany Lions First Half Team Total Over 20.5 at -112 odds and the full game spread of -24.5 (-110). Utah went up 23-0 at half on UCLA, UNLV 23-3, New Mexico 17-7, and Northwestern 17-3 — how can you believe in UCLA?
Pick: Penn State 1H Team Total Over 20.5 (1 unit), Penn State -24.5 (1 unit)
Louisiana Monroe at Northwestern (-11.5): O/U 42.5
Northwestern versus UCLA was one of the ugliest games of last weekend and after watvhing three out of four gmaes on the Wildcats, I do not think this is a good enough team to be playing double-digits versus a lot of teams. Louisiana Monroe enters off a win over Arkansas State, who almost beat Iowa State, and a 73-0 loss to Alabama as the main blemish on the record.
However, Northwestern is 99th and 120th in havoc rate and havoc rate allowed, while ULM is 49th and 132nd, so both teams could live in the backfield with the subpar offensive lines. In the last two games, ULM has outgained its opponents 250-33 and 199-12 on the ground, which could be a problem for the Wildcats’ front seven that couldn’t contain Oregon or Tulane rush-first attacks.
I like ULM to cover the +11.5 at -110 odds and sprinkle the ML at +350 too. I would not be shocked to see the Warhawks win this game.
Pick: Louisiana Monroe +11.5 (1 unit), Louisiana Monroe ML (0.25u)
#22 Illinois (-9.5) at Purdue: O/U 55.5
This total has dropped from 57.5 and 58.5 down to 55.5, and rightfully so. The Purdue offense has had its troubles and needs to be creative in order to score, given the addition of over 80 new players to the roster in the offseason. Illinois is a veteran squad that is coming off a much-needed 34-32 win over USC, following a blowout loss at Indiana (63-10).
Purdue likes to play fast, ranking 20th in plays per second, but most of that is because of trailing game states. Illinois is 79th in plays per second and will likely attempt to grind out long drives against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 114th and 124th in havoc rate and havoc rate allowed, while Illinois is 108th and 85th, so both teams could have success getting into each other’s backfield.
Last year, the two combined for a 50-49 OT thriller in favor of Illinois. That win snapped a four-game losing streak against the Boilermakers. It’s always a weird matchup between the two, and while I lean toward Illinois to cover the -9.5, I think the best bet is the Under 55.5 or pivoting to Purdue’s Team Total Under 22.5.
Pick: Illinois vs Purdue Under 55.5 (1 unit)
#24 Virginia at Louisville (-6.5): O/U 61.5
I am not sure why Louisville is such a large favorite beside a possible letdown spot for Virginia. I was on Pitt last week and disgusted on how the Panthers gave that game away to Louisville after leading 17-0 and 27-17.
Miller Moss and the Cardinals have been one of the luckier teams to start the season and could very well have two losses to James Madison and Pitt. When looking at game grades and deeper analytics on performances, Virginia grades out and ranks higher than Louisville on a season and per game basis.
This might be a trap betting Virginia, but I see the Cavaliers having a chance to win this game, if not lead throughout this contest. Louisville is such a fraudulent 4-0 to me. I will take Virginia +7 (-125) and the ML (+195).
Pick: Virginia +7 (1 unit), Virginia ML (0.5 unit)
#11 Texas Tech (-12.5) at Houston: O/U 52.5
One of my favorite Unders of the week is fading the Houston Cougars’ offense. Houston survived Oregon State 27-24 in OT after trailing by 14 points in the second half to a winless Beavers squad. That is concerning, and the fact that the Cougars scored both touchdowns in the final 4:30 was even more concerning. Then, add in Oregon State’s missed 46-yard walkoff field goal, making it a pretty lucky win for Houston to remain 4-0. Tech beat Oregon State 45-14 and led 45-0 at one point.
Houston scored 27 on Stephen F. Austin, 35 on Rice, 36 on Colorado, and 27 against Oregon State, so here comes the worst offensive showing of the season, in my opinion. Texas Tech is coming off a bye week after destroying Utah on the road, mostly because of the defensive line and front-seven pressure rates. The Utes were held to 4-for-16 on third and fourth downs, 4.3 yards per completion, and four turnovers!
Texas Tech has held everyone they’ve played below 20 points (7, 14, 14, 10), and off a bye week, I like that to happen again. I played the Houston Cougars Team Total Under 20.5 at -125 odds.
Pick: Houston Team Total Under 20.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 25-33 (43.1%) -7.16 units
Last Week Record: 2-7 (22.2%) -4.25 units
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
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