Every week this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for the top college football games of the week.
A Saturday that college football fans have had circled on their calendars for months is finally (almost) upon us.
We’ll dive into the top Week 5 games shortly, but before we go any futher, here’s a look at the kickoff times and current betting odds from FanDuel for the biggest matchups this weekend.
No. 24 TCU vs. Arizona State (-2.5) — Fri., 9 p.m. (FOX)
No. 21 USC (-6.5) vs. No. 23 Illinois — Sat., 12 p.m. (FOX)
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5) — Sat., 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State (-3.5) — Sat., 7:30 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
No. 17 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia (-3.5) — Sat., 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
No. 1 Ohio State also has an intriguing trip to undefeated Washington (3:30 p.m on CBS).
Auburn vs. No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. on ESPN), No. 11 Indiana vs. Iowa (3:30 p.m. on Peacock), No. 15 Tennessee vs. Mississippi State (4:15 p.m on SEC Network) and Arizona vs. No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m. on ESPN) are among a handful of other games worth checking out on Saturday.
No. 24 TCU vs. Arizona State (-2.5 at DK, bet365)
Pick: TCU moneyline (best odds: +126 at FanDuel)
Reigning Big 12 champ ASU dropped out of the top 25 after losing to Mississippi State on the road in Week 2. Still, the Sun Devils remain one of the favorites to win their conference after starting conference play with a road W over Baylor last Saturday.
TCU is coming off a 35-24 win over an SMU squad that made the College Football Playoff a year ago, and that might have been their least impressive offensive showing of the season.
Underrated Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (70-of-103 passing for 1,000 yards, 11 TDs and 2 interceptions) has opened the season with three straight games with over 280 yards through the air — and had TCU vs. North Carolina been competitive, he would have easily cracked 300 yards passing in that one.
Hoover and stud wide receivers Eric McAlister (13 catches for 320 yards) and Jordan Dwyer (17 catches for 257 yards) have led the way so far this season.
They have a chance to light up an ASU secondary that struggled against both Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen (279 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 interceptions, 158.6 passer rating) and Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson (250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 interception, 138.2 passer rating).
TCU also boasts an underrated defense. This unit was solid against SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings last week, recording two interceptions and allowing the Mustangs to convert just 4-of-13 third-down attempts.
An upset by the Horned Frogs wouldn’t shock me at all. Whether you like them on the moneyline or to cover at +2.5 or +3, they’re a solid upset bet for your Week 5 slip.
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5 at FD, DK, bet365)
Pick: Under 55 (best odds: -110 at bet365)
This is a tough one to call in a massive contest for both teams. The winner will have to be considered one of the betting favorites to win the SEC.
Both the Tigers and Rebels are currently 7-to-1 or longer to win their conference, while most books list Georgia, Texas and Alabama at 5-to-1 or shorter.
LSU’s defense has been outstanding, even though shutting down Clemson and Florida looks less impressive in hindsight given those teams’ struggles. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels were far from dominant against Kentucky in Week 2 or Arkansas in Week 3, but they turned heads by blowing out a solid Tulane squad last Saturday.
One of the biggest stories in the SEC this year has been Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. After starring at Ferris State the last three seasons, the senior was expected to back up the highly-touted Austin Simmons. But he’s been outstanding since coming on for Simmons against Kentucky.
He was especially impressive vs. Tulane, shredding the Green Wave for 307 yards passing on just 27 attempts while adding 112 rushing yards on 14 carries. Remarkably, in 64 dropbacks against much tougher competition than what he saw at Ferris State, he has not been intercepted once, and he’s only been sacked twice.
LSU’s tranfer-loaded defense has exceeded even the highest expectations to date. The Tigers currently have the No. 7 defense in the nation, per ESPN’s SP+, as coordinator Blake Baker’s unit appears to have gone from solid (LSU finished 2024 with the No. 34 defense, according to SP+) to elite.
Surprisingly, an LSU offense which was dominant over the last few seasons, has sputtered — not only against Clemson and Florida, but also against Louisiana Tech back in Week 2.
Overall, this matchup strikes me as a coin flip, so I don’t have a strong take on the spread. For now, I like the under in A) easily the toughest matchup of Chambliss’s career to date and B) a difficult road test for Garrett Nussmeier and Co.
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State (-3.5 at FD, DK, bet365)
Pick: Oregon +3.5
Neither of these teams are exactly “flying under the radar.”
ESPN’s SP+ is even higher than most on these two, though, ranking Oregon (AP No. 6) No. 1 and Penn State (AP No. 3) No. 2.
In last year’s Big Ten Conference Championship Game between these programs, both offenses were dominant. Oregon ended up winning 45-37 despite allowing 28 first downs and 8.7 yards per carry on 34 rushing attempts.
The bad news for the Ducks is that PSU RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are both back. The good news is that they’re also familiar with Drew Allar.
The Penn State QB is widely expected to be a first-round pick next spring, but he’s struggled mightily against top competition, including Oregon. He was intercepted twice by the Ducks last year, and he threw for just 226 yards on 39 attempts.
Allar also played poorly against Ohio State in the ’24 regular season (12/20 passing for 146 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception), and he posted underwhelming numbers against SMU, Boise and Notre Dame in the 2024 College Football Playoff. In fact, Oregon was the only top-flight defense that Allar managed to throw for over 200 yards against in 2024.
It’s early — and we should note that Penn State is 3-0, with three wins by at least 34 points — but it’s hard to see the Nittany Lions beating elite competition based on what we’ve seen from Allar and his top receivers, transfers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson, so far this year.
Until I see (a lot) more from Allar and this passing game, I don’t feel comfortable backing the Nittany Lions in games like this one — and certainly not to cover as 3.5-point favorites.
I haven’t seen quite enough from them to take the Ducks on the moneyline, but I love them at +3.5, even in a massive test for a largely unproven roster that lost 10 players to the 2025 NFL Draft (including six taken in the third round or earlier).
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