Every week this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for the top college football games of the week.
Week 4 in college football has a tough act to follow after Georgia vs. Tennessee and Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame both lived up to the hype in Week 3.
The headliners this weekend are No. 22 Auburn’s trip to Norman to take on No. 11 Oklahoma and the primetime Big Ten matchup between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana.
Other CFB contests worth watching this weekend include No. 17 Texas Tech vs. No. 16 Utah in a massive early Big 12 matchup, plus Tulane vs. No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 21 Michigan vs. Nebraska.
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (-3) — Sat., 12 p.m. (FOX)
Picks:
Utah -3 (-112 at DraftKings)
Under 57.5 (-110 at DK, FD)
There’s a lot to like about these teams, who enter Week 4 as the clear co-favorites to win the Big 12 (at both DK and FD, Texas Tech and Utah are 4-to-1 or shorter).
Both have been impressive through three weeks, but neither have truly been tested.
In a clash between two of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country (Tech’s Behren Morton and Utah’s Devon Dampier), I like the Utah defense to slow down the high-flying Red Raiders at home.
Morton has put up huge numbers to start this year. But he was inconsistent in ’24, and he struggled against the best defenses he faced. In fact, Morton averaged just 212.5 passing yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt while taking a total of 13 sacks against Iowa State, Arizona State, TCU and Colorado.
Saturday’s road matchup with Utes coach Kyle Whittingham’s always-stout defense looms as arguably the toughest of the fifth-year senior’s career.
On the other side of the ball, standout Utah tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu should be able to limit the impact of talented Red Raiders pass rusher David Bailey, who is among three preseason first-team All-Big 12 players on the Texas Tech defense.
Tulane vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (-10.5) — Sat., 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Picks:
Tulane +10.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Ole Miss Team Total Over 36.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Ole Miss is off to a 3-0 start that includes a pair of SEC wins, but the Rebels have looked beatable, especially on defense.
Lane Kiffin’s team needed 41 points to top Arkansas last Saturday. Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green gashed Ole Miss for 115 yards on 14 carries, and Arkansas was able to pile up 29 first downs in a losing effort.
Tulane has already beaten two power-conference opponents, Northwestern and Duke, and I expect former BYU star Jake Retzlaff to keep Saturday’s game competitive, especially early. Retzlaff was able to run for 111 yards and 4 touchdowns vs. the Blue Devils last Saturday, and Green’s success on the ground vs. Ole Miss bodes well for Retzlaff’s chances of a big game as a runner in Oxford.
This line opened at Rebels -12.5. If it moves any further toward the underdogs, I’d actually recommend taking Ole Miss at -9.5. Right now, though, I like Tulane to cover as 10.5-point dogs.
Remember, under second-year head coach Jon Sumrall, the Green Wave have not only this year’s wins over Duke and Northwestern, but close early-season losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma a year ago as proof that they can hang with just about anyone.
In addition to Tulane to cover at +10.5, I also like Ole Miss to go over its team total of 36.5. The Green Wave gave up 31 points to South Alabama and 27 to Duke the last two weeks, and a year ago, this defense allowed 33 points or more seven times (four times in AAC play and in all three games they played vs. P4 opponents).
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5) — Sat., 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Pick: Under 47.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Auburn is entering a brutal four-game stretch. Following Saturday’s trip to Norman, the Tigers visit No. 10 Texas A&M in Week 5. Then, after a Week 6 bye, they host No. 5 Georgia on Oct. 11 before welcoming No. 23 Missouri to Jordan-Hare Stadium on Oct. 18.
With former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold under center, the Tigers have started this season strong, but we’ll know a lot more about how good this team is after Saturday’s matchup with the Sooners.
Oklahoma looks like a much better team than it was in ’24, when the offense failed to get on track, dooming a talented roster to a 6-7 finish. With former Washington State star John Mateer at QB and Mateer’s old WSU OC, Ben Arbuckle, calling the plays, the Sooners are flying high. Their 24-13 win over Michigan in Week 2 seemingly indicated that in Year 4, Brent Venables might have his best OU team yet.
A game pitting a former five-star recruit (Arnold) vs. his old team feels impossible to predict. That variable makes this game’s spread a stay-away.
If there’s a play I like here, it’s the under. Both these teams boast top-15 defenses, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. So, I expect a defensive battle similar to Oklahoma’s 24-13 win over Michigan two weeks ago (though at this point, I’m not quite convinced the Sooners will cover on Saturday night).
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-6) — Sat., 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
Picks:
Illinois +6 (-110 at DK)
Over 52.5 (-110 at DK, FD)
At this point last fall, it would have been hard to convince any CFB fan that the Week 4 headliner in 2025 would be a primetime Big Ten clash between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana.
After both teams turned heads in 2024, though, this is a huge early-season matchup in the Big Ten. Indiana is coming off a memorable run to the CFP in its first season under Curt Cignetti, while Bret Bielema’s Illinois team improved from 5-7 in 2023 to 10-3 in ’24.
Veteran Illini QB Luke Altmyer is one of the top QBs in the Big Ten, if not the nation, as a fifth-year senior, while Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is a likely top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after transferring from Cal to Indiana this offseason.
The jury is still out on what to expect from these teams this season, especially the Hoosiers, who opened the year with easy wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Illinois opened with a romp over Western Illinois in Week 1 and a blowout win over Western Michigan last Saturday, but it got a solid road test in Week 2 vs. Duke. After a close first half in Durham, Illinois outscored the Blue Devils 31-6 after the break. The Illini gave up 400-plus yards in that one, but forced five turnovers to eventually win going away, 45-19.
Against an Illinois team that is solid on both sides of the ball, I have a hard time seeing Indiana pulling away (or covering the spread), so I’ll take the underdogs to cover.
I also like the over in a matchup of talented, veteran QBs, neither of whom has been intercepted this season.
It’s worth noting that the last time these teams met (back in 2023), this rivalry delivered a 48-45 thriller that Illinois won in overtime.
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