After a near break even week of 8-6 -0.51 units, we look to bounce back in a big way and continue our season in the green (19-14 +2.55 units)!
The public is with me when it comes to Notre Dame this weekend, but who else do you know that is betting North Texas at Army and UNLV at Miami of Ohio? Let’s get down to my best bets of the week! As always, best of luck and follow on X for live bets!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Purdue at Notre Dame (-24.5): O/U 54.5
After a 27-24 loss to Miami and 41-40 heartbreaking loss to Texas A&M — I am all in the Irish to destroy the Boilermakers in Week 4.
Last season, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois 16-13 in one of the weirdest games of the season. The following week, Notre Dame dismantled Purdue 66-7. Notre Dame came out of the gate and led 14-0 after the first quarter, 42-0 at the half and scored on 9 out of 13 drives, excluding the final drive.
There is even more reason for Notre Dame to blow this team out. Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten this season and the level of talent between Purdue and Notre Dame is so drastic I don’t even know how to phrase it accordingly.
Purdue ranks 123rd in havoc allowed on the season and averaged 1.9 yards per carry against USC, so Notre Dame should hunt in the backfield. Most of the Irish’s numbers are all soiled because of playing two of the toughest opponents so far, Miami and Texas A&M.
Notre Dame is looking for someone or something to take their anger out on and Purdue won’t know what hit them. Purdue covered against USC, but the Trojans were flying across the country, playing in a different time zone, and experienced a three-hour weather delay and still, USC led 17-3 at the half.
I like Notre Dame -24.5 for a 2 unit slam and the first half -14.5 for 1.5 units. Honestly, I think Notre Dame wins by 40-plus points, so I would play this spread out to 27.5.
Pick: Notre Dame -24.5 (2 units), Notre Dame 1H -14.5 (1.5 units)
North Texas (-3) at Army: O/U 50.5
North Texas is coming off a 59-10 home win versus Washington State, where the defense forced five turnovers (3 Interceptions, 2 Fumbles) and the offense averaged 5.6 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per pass.
Everything went right for the Mean Green, but I am fading as they ready for their second road game of the year. Army is by far the best pass defense that North Texas will face, as they rank 45th in efficiency against the pass, and everyone else was 72nd or worse.
Army ranks 114th in tempo with a plays per 29.6 second, so they should control the pace and could tire out the North Texas defense the longer their possessions go, especially if the Mean Green’s offense spits out some three-and-outs at their much quicker pace of 24.0 seconds (28th).
In North Texas’ only road game at Western Michigan (33-30 OT win), the Mean Green didn’t score in the first quarter and trailed by as much as 14 points before tying the game up with 1:49 seconds remaining. Army is coming off a bye week and already beat Kansas State 27-24 after losing to Tarleton State in 2OT 30-27 thanks to three turnovers and two missed field goals.
The Black Knights didn’t turn the ball over at Kansas State and only had two penalties for 10 yards. I think we see a disciplined Army team with a strong game plan early, so I bet the Black Knights 1Q spread at +0.5 and -135 odds and the full game +3 at -118 odds.
Pick: Army 1Q +0.5 (1 unit), Army +3 (1 unit)
UNLV (-2.5) at Miami (OH): O/U 48.5
Miami of Ohio is coming off a bye week after two losses to Rutgers and Wisconsin, which makes you have to be mindful when handicapping this game. For example, Miami is 126th and 118th in havoc rate and havoc rate allowed — that’s expected if you’re a non-P4 team playing two Big Ten teams that identify as defensive-minded.
The Red Hawks have rest and travel on their side as UNLV will be playing at 12 PM ET, which is 9 AM internal time for the Rebels. UNLV is 3-0, and none of those games were impacted by time zone or travel, as they played Sam Houston State on Friday night at 9:30 PM ET in the only road game.
So I am betting Miami Ohio in the first quarter at +0.5 or the +1.5, whatever you’re sportsbook has. UNLV played two of their worst defenses in the country, and UCLA, which is 0-3 and one of the worst P4 teams, so not much better.
Early travel gives Miami an opportunity for its first win, plus the full game spread went from +5.5 to +2.5, so sharps like the Red Hawks too. I grabbed Miami 1Q +0.5 at -148 odds.
Pick: Miami (OH) 1Q +0.5 (1 unit)
DJ Lagway O/U 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Miami
You will probably roll your eyes over this pick and rightfully so, DJ Lagway was terrible against LSU! Five interceptions to one touchdown! Come on, man!
Lagway’s job isn’t in jeopardy, but the Florida Gators’ season is in if they pull out a win at Miami. In the last two games, Lagway has thrown the ball 33 and 49 times and put together 15 carries as well, so the volume for an Over is there, especially in a negative or high-scoring script.
CJ Carr threw two touchdowns agaisnt Miami in Week 1 and neither Bethune-Cookman or USF were great passing teams. Lagway could be the best passer that Miami has seen thus far and if he does have a bounce back game, he could reach two-plus passing touchdowns, but if he has a career-day, we could get paid.
Lagway’s Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns is +149, which I will rock with for one unit. Then I split the next four bets up with quarter units (0.25) each — Lagway Over 2.5 Passing TDs at +640, Over 3.5 Passing TDs at +3000, then the same on his anytime rushing touchdown at +450 and two-plus anytime touchdowns at +5000.
While anything more than two touchdowns is a long shot since three is his career-high and he’s never had a rushing score — this is now or never for Florida, so I will back Lagway to show up after being nationally embarrassed.
Pick: DJ Lagway Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1 unit), DJ Lagway Over 2.5 Passing TDs (0.25 units), DJ Lagway Over 3.5 Passing TDs (0.25 units), DJ Lagway Anytime TD (0.25 units), DJ Lagway 2+ Anytime TDs (0.25 units)
West Virginia at Kansas (-14): O/U 55.5
Last season, West Virginia lost to Pitt in a 38-34 shootout, then turned around and beat Kansas 34-28 the following week. The Mountaineers held Kansas QB Jalon Daniels to 184 passing yards on 15-of-25 passing, one touchdown, one interception, and 11 rushing yards on five carries (2 sacks). I think this year will be different.
First off, the roles are reversed. West Virginia beat Pitt in an epic 31-24 OT finish, while Kansas is coming off a bye week and lost last time out at Missouri in their own rivalry game (42-34). Advantage Kansas. The Jayhawks have plenty of film on West Virginia, and one thing WVU struggled with in its only loss this year was an athletic quarterback.
Parker Navarro of Ohio carved the Mountaineers up for 87 rushing yards, and while he didn’t score on the ground, Navarro did everything else. Daniels scored from one yard out against Missouri, and last year, Kansas had three rushing touchdowns versus WVU. Pitt’s Eli Holsetin scored from one yard out against WVU last week, and I think Daniels can too.
For +105 to -110 odds, I like Jayhawks’ QB Jalon Daniels to score an anytime touchdown versus West Virginia.
Pick: Jalon Daniels Anytime TD (1 unit)
Season Record: 19-14 (57.5%) +2.55 units | 6.74 ROI%
Game Pick Record: 17-10 (62.9%) +6.18 units (8-3 last week)
Props Record: 2-4 (33.3%) -3.63 units (0-3 last week)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
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