College football Week 12 power ratings: Texas A&M joins Ohio State, Alabama in Tier 1

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There aren't many big changes to the power rankings this week. Last Saturday was one of those "calm before the storm" weeks where not much of significance happened to alter the power rankings. That won't be the same story this Saturday with marquee matchups like Georgia vs. Texas and Oklahoma vs. Alabama on the slate. The College Football Playoff picture should look clearer after the Week 12 results. Each week during the season I'll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. I'll also move teams based on results, discuss changes in the betting market and set the hypothetical point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers. Stop by the SportsLine college football Discord channel or hit me up on X at @TheTomCasale to let me know if you agree or disagree with the rankings. College football Week 12 power ratings Tier 1 1. Ohio State Buckeyes 2. Alabama Crimson Tide 3. Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M moves up to Tier 1 after its win over Missouri. The Aggies have road victories over the Tigers, Notre Dame and LSU. Now they get two home games against South Carolina and Samford before heading to Texas in what will be a massive regular season finale for College Football Playoff seeding. These three teams are all rated extremely close and you can make a strong argument for any of them being No. 1. I still lean Ohio State though because the defending champions have yet to be tested this season. And the Buckeyes may not be tested until the playoff. Tier 2 (+2 from Tier 1) 4. Georgia Bulldogs 5. Indiana Hoosiers 6. Oregon Ducks The teams in Tier 2 are rated close together and just a step below Ohio State, Alabama and Texas A&M. Oregon and Indiana both survived tricky road tests last week. While neither looked great, I don't penalize teams for winning conference games on the road. Iowa and Penn State are tough places to get a win. In my opinion, it shows more that the Ducks and Hoosiers were able to survive on the road while not playing their best. Georgia faces one of its toughest tests of the season this Saturday at home against Texas. The Longhorns will be in desperation mode with two losses already. However, if the Bulldogs take care of business at home, they can almost certainly punch their CFP ticket. All these teams are serious contenders to win the National Championship, although I would make them slight underdogs against Ohio State, Alabama and Texas A&M on a neutral field. Tier 3 (+4 from Tier 1) 7. Ole Miss Rebels 8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9. Texas Longhorns 10. Texas Tech Red Raiders 11. Oklahoma Sooners Tier 3 is what I consider the most dangerous group moving forward. All these teams have stumbled at some point during the season, but they are good enough to compete for a title. The two teams in this group I like to cause havoc in the playoffs are Notre Dame and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank No. 1 in the "Casale Trenches Ratings." Here's the thing: teams that dominate on both the offensive and defensive lines can beat anyone. I threw a few bucks on Texas Tech to win the National Championship at +1700. It's do or die for both Texas and Oklahoma this week. Each team has two losses but can put itself in position to make the College Football Playoff with upsets on Saturday. The Longhorns are 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia, while the Sooners are getting a touchdown at Alabama. It will be difficult for either team to make the postseason with another loss. Tier 4 (+8 from Tier 1) 12. Vanderbilt Commodores 13. Michigan Wolverines Vanderbilt and Michigan are two quality teams that can beat anyone ranked above them on the right day. However, I don't view either as a serious National Championship contender. I can see Vanderbilt making the playoff and pulling an upset, while the Wolverines look to still be a year away from being a title contender. While both teams are College Football Playoff contenders, I would make them over touchdown underdogs against Ohio State, Alabama and Texas A&M on a neutral field. Tier 5 (+11 from Tier 1) 14. Utah Utes 15. USC Trojans 16. Miami Hurricanes 17. BYU Cougars Tier 5 is a group of good teams that have an uphill battle to reach the College Football Playoff. Miami is the most talented of the group but the Hurricanes need a lot of help to reach the ACC Championship game. That would be the Canes' only path to the playoffs. Utah is in a similar position. I rate the Utes as the second-best team in the Big 12, although the loss to BYU really hurt them. Utah needs the Cougars to falter down the stretch to get a rematch against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. I make these three teams roughly 11-point underdogs on a neutral field against either Ohio State, Alabama and Texas A&M with Utah having the most upside of the four. I still believe the Utes are the only team in the Big 12 talented enough to upset Texas Tech right now. Tier 6 (+14 from Tier 1) 18. Missouri Tigers 19. SMU Mustangs 20. Tennessee Volunteers Tier 6 features two strong SEC teams in Missouri and Tennessee that are a notch below the elite squads in the conference. SMU is the one team lower in the rankings that is still in good position to make the playoff. The Mustangs are currently in a four-way tie for first place in the ACC. Hey, someone in that conference has to make the playoff. I'd put my money on the Mustangs, who appear to be peaking at the right time.