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Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, rest assured, will be changing his signals ahead of Saturday's top-15 showdown at Oklahoma, a pivotal matchup in the SEC as college football's regular season approaches its final month. Kiffin complimented the 13th-ranked Sooners' defensive production under Brent Venables this season and said no other team in the conference studies film like Oklahoma. That clash is one of 10 games we're picking this weekend, many of which will directly impact the College Football Playoff picture ahead of the selection committee's initial rankings two weeks from now. Week 9 is not littered by a wealth of nationally-ranked matchups. And you know what happens when a college football weekend is perceived weak or even overlooked ... Last week's results: Brad Crawford (6-4 straight, 5-5 ATS); Chris Hummer (6-4, 4-6 ATS). Michigan handling Washington was an easy winner if you tailed, but picking South Carolina to cover at home against Oklahoma was a bad call over this way given how bad the Gamecocks have played offensively. Georgia and Vanderbilt covering in big spots against nationally-ranked competition helped me finish with a .500 week and pick up a game on my comrade. Season results: Crawford (59-21 straight, 45-35 ATS); Hummer (59-21; 38-42). For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Oct. 20. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Northwestern at Nebraska Hummer (Northwestern +7.5): The Wildcats are riding a four-game winning streak that's been sparked, in large part, by their excellent play along the lines of scrimmage. They're playing physical, run-first football and have averaged 199 yards rushing per game in that stretch. Northwestern is also a top 20 team in pressure rate. That could be a problem for Nebraska, which just gave up nine sacks to Minnesota. The Huskers are the slightly more talented team. But I don't think this ends in more than a one-score margin. Nebraska squeaks it out but the Wildcats cover. … Nebraska 24, Northwestern 20. Crawford (Nebraska -7.5): Conventional wisdom says take the Wildcats and the points here considering they've won four straight and the Huskers are trying to rebound from a bad road loss to Minnesota. And that's precisely why I'm going with the other side and picking Nebraska to cover. These teams have split their last six meetings with the Huskers winning three straight in Lincoln. ... Nebraska 27, Northwestern 17. No. 18 South Florida at Memphis Hummer (USF -3.5): This is an even matchup on paper. Neither team has a significant weakness. But I do worry a bit about the Tigers if starting QB Brendon Lewis isn't able to go after an injury he sustained last week in a loss to UAB. Memphis was considerably less effective with true freshman AJ Hill under center. If Lewis is out, this is an easy USF pick for me. If he's in, there's ATS value for Memphis at home. Either way, give me the Bulls. They have the better QB and a few legitimate game changers at receiver and on the defensive line. … USF 38, Memphis 34. Crawford (USF -3.5): Be careful overlooking Memphis in this spot after the Tigers' loss to UAB. That was a classic lookahead with USF coming up and it came back to bite one of the top teams in the American. You have to wonder where the Tigers' heads will be early in this one coming after that unexpected setback, however. Expect the Bulls to continue their mission and the best bet here might be the over. ... USF 38, Memphis 34. No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State Hummer (Michigan -13.5): Michigan State has some big problems this season, especially defensively ranking 120th nationally in yards allowed per play. With rivalry games such as these, I'm generally inclined to project a close game. But the Spartans have lost four straight double-digit games in Big Ten play, and it doesn't get any easier against Michigan. Give me the Wolverines to win and cover. … Michigan 31, Michigan State 17. Crawford (Michigan -13.5): Leading rusher Justice Haynes was scratched from last week's win over Washington with an injury and the Wolverines still managed to handle one of the Big Ten's best teams at the line of scrimmage with 187 yards on the ground. They turned a couple second-half takeaways into points at the other end and followed a script that's been a staple under Sherrone Moore thus far during wins -- lead with defense. Jordan Marshall had a career-high 133 yards rushing on 25 carries and should get a heavy dose against vs. the Spartans. ... Michigan 30, Michigan State 14. No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma Hummer (Ole Miss +3.5): This is a bit of a trap game for the Rebels coming out of an emotional loss to Georgia. The Sooners have their obvious problems -- any offense created outside of John Mateer -- but they have an elite defense, and the Rebels have had their moments of defensive lapses this season. Still, I'm a little surprised to see Oklahoma favored in this game. I still have a lot of concerns about how the Sooners' offense will hold up unless Mateer plays outstanding. Give me the Rebels. … Ole Miss 28, Oklahoma 27. Crawford (Ole Miss +3.5): Classic matchups of offense vs. defense in this spot, Lane Kiffin vs. Brent Venables. This is Week 9's best game, at least on paper. The Rebels scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions at Georgia before Kirby Smart finally found something that worked defensively to thwart Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss passing game. Venables is studying that tape hard this week. I'll take the points on the road for the Rebels and a win outright. ... Ole Miss 27, Oklahoma 24. Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon Hummer (Wisconsin +34.5): This could get ugly. The Badgers have been shut out by Iowa and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks, and the Ducks are another top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed per play. Wisconsin will shorten the game with its pace and run game, so this one really comes down to a few things: 1. Can Wisconsin generate a drive or two to score? 2. Can Wisconsin force Oregon to drive instead of scoring with chunk plays. 3. Can Wisconsin avoid turnovers? I'm not super confident in any of those things, to be honest. But that's a big line for a Badgers team that hasn't allowed more than 38 points in a game this season. … Oregon 38, Wisconsin 7. Crawford (Oregon -34.5): Can Wisconsin score? That's my dilemma here after considering the underdog in this spot. Luke Fickell received a vote of confidence from his AD this week amid turmoil, but that doesn't help the Badgers score points in Eugene. The Ducks proved a point at Rutgers and could do the same this weekend against Wisconsin. ... Oregon 45, Wisconsin 7. No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina Hummer (Alabama -13.5): I've said it a few times this season in these picks, but South Carolina isn't really doing anything well. LaNorris Sellers is awesome. Beyond that? The Gamecocks struggle to run the ball (132nd nationally in yards per rush), catch the ball (96th nationally in drop percentage), block (133rd in pressure rate allowed) and get stops (60th nationally in yards allowed per play). Could this be the week South Carolina puts it all together? Sure. It happened against Kentucky. But I still feel good about picking Alabama. … Alabama 34, South Carolina 17. Crawford (Alabama -13.5): Finally, the Crimson Tide get a break in the schedule without having to face nationally-ranked competition this weekend for the fifth consecutive game. The Gamecocks haven't solved offensive deficiencies yet under first-year coordinator Mike Shula and a change could be coming later on this fall if South Carolina fails to recover. Perhaps the Gamecocks keep it close at home, but Alabama's a machine right now with no signs of slowing down. ... Alabama 31, South Carolina 10. No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt Hummer (Vanderbilt -2.5): Anytime anyone plays Missouri, the game mostly comes down to one thing: Stopping the run. The Commodores have done that well this season, ranking 26th nationally in yards allowed per carry. I also wonder about Missouri QB Beau Pribula and avoiding mistakes. He's been up and down the last few weeks, and I know generally I can count on Diego Pavia to play near flawlessly for the Commodores. I really like both these teams. But give me Vanderbilt at home. The Commodores just make the most out of every possession. … Vanderbilt 24, Missouri 21. Crawford (Vanderbilt -2.5): Consecutive wins over ranked teams for the Commodores? It's possible. Vanderbilt's gameplan against LSU last week was executed to near perfection by Diego Pavia within that offense, spreading it around to tight ends via various play-action sets rather than try and win 1-on-1s with wideouts against the Tigers' talent back end. Another win keeps Vanderbilt in control of its own playoff destiny. That's still quite shocking to say this late in the campaign. ... Vanderbilt 27, Missouri 20. No. 11 BYU at Iowa State Hummer (Iowa State -2.5): This line tells you all you need to know about the margins in the Big 12 as an unbeaten Cougars team is the underdog to a Cyclones team that's lost two straight. But Iowa State is coming off a bye and has had some time to restart what's been a leaky secondary that's been hampered by injury. This isn't a great reason, but I just think it's going to be hard for BYU to win in Ames following an emotional rivalry win over Utah. The Cyclones do enough to stop the run and come away with a win. … Iowa State 27, BYU 24. Crawford (Iowa State -2.5): The underdog has covered -- and won -- in this spot more often than not this season, so we're going with the numbers here. I failed to believe in BYU last week as a home underdog to Utah and it cost me a tick in the loss column. Kalani Sitake's done a great job this season to be unblemished through eight weeks after losing his starting quarterback before the campaign. However, the streak finally ends here for the Cougars. ... Iowa State 26, BYU 20. No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State Hummer (Texas -6.5): The vibes in Austin on offense aren't great right now. The Longhorns rank just 74th nationally in yards per play, and they were totally corralled by Kentucky last week. At the same time, I'm not sure the Bulldogs are equipped to pull this upset. Texas' O-line is an issue, but Mississippi State ranks just 96th nationally in pressure rate. The Bulldogs are also built around the run and success in early downs with it. The problem is Texas is a top 10 run defense. Maybe Arch Manning and the Longhorns O-line struggle with the noise in Starkville. But I think the Longhorns respond with a needed win. … Texas 27, Mississippi State 17. Crawford (Mississippi State +6.5): It's hard to win in the SEC. That was the Longhorns' postgame message after slipping past Kentucky on the road last week. This coming from a team that was ranked No. 1 at the outset and was largely outplayed by an opponent despite a considerably more talented roster. Even during the win over Oklahoma earlier this month, the Texas offense was average. They're going to fall behind early in Week 9 and face an uphill climb from there. ... Mississippi State 24, Texas 20. No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU Hummer (Texas A&M -2.5): I don't think I've picked a LSU game correctly ATS this year. Part of that is a preseason stubbornness as the Tigers were my SEC title pick, so I'm throwing out my preseason bias. Texas A&M is the better team. There's no question about that through eight weeks. The Tigers struggle to run the ball with any consistency, have injuries across their O-line and it's clear Blake Baker's defense can get picked on a bit, especially when Harold Perkins Jr. gets caught in coverage. This being a night game in Baton Rouge gives me some pause. But I'll go with the Aggies. Honestly, though, that pick probably seals an LSU win. … Texas A&M 27, LSU 24.
