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The first College Football Playoff Rankings of the 2025 season will be unveiled Tuesday night at 8 p.m. ET, meaning this is the last CFP Vibe Check of the season that is 100% vibes made from pure concentrate. As we prepare for these final hours of vibin', the truth is this week isn't as much of a vibe check as it was a reality check for the ACC. Two weeks ago, after Miami lost to Louisville on a Friday night, I wrote about how Miami's loss could be a blessing in disguise for the ACC: a way to help it sneak in, possibly as many as three teams if things broke the league's way. Well, they didn't. Miami losing again was not part of the equation, but that's what the Hurricanes did, falling to unranked SMU 26-20 on Saturday. It's not a bad loss, but it will be painted that way since SMU doesn't have a number next to its name. Still, the problem Miami faces is that it truly has no margin for error left. The Canes are 2-2 in the ACC, but while they might be mathematically alive (and, honestly, given all the tie-breaker scenarios in play, I don't know that they even are as I type this at 1:30 am on Sunday), there are six ACC teams ahead of them in the standings. The odds the Canes reach the ACC Championship Game are slim, meaning their only avenue to the playoff is as an at-large. It's in play if the Canes finish 10-2, but there's a hilarious possibility we must consider. There's a chance 10-2 Miami is up against 10-2 Notre Dame for the final at-large. Common sense says Miami would get the edge there (and should!), but there's also a chance Notre Dame's overall resume looks better if Louisville and SMU -- the teams Miami lost to -- crumble down the stretch. SMU is already 6-3 and has only one home game left, which happens to be against Louisville. Louisville also has games left against Cal, Clemson, and Kentucky. Imagine a scenario where Miami's losses came against a 9-3 Louisville and an 8-4 SMU, while Notre Dame's losses came against a 10-2 Miami and a Texas A&M team that might win the SEC. Sure, Notre Dame lost to Miami, but it didn't lose to SMU or Louisville! Ah, what a system we've created. Alas, that's not the primary point. No, the primary point is that Miami suffered a loss, which could cripple it in the long run, and later in the day, Georgia Tech lost by 12 on the road to an NC State team missing two of its best players on offense because the Yellow Jackets' defense couldn't get a stop to save its life. Georgia Tech's stunning loss at NC State likely ends the ACC's multi-team College Football Playoff outlook Brad Crawford All the paths to the ACC getting multiple teams are closing quickly. It's still a possibility -- if Georgia Tech and Virginia both win out, one will win the ACC while the other will be an 11-2 team that lost its conference title game. Both would likely get in, but it's no guarantee if Virginia is the ACC Championship Game loser. The Cavaliers would be 11-2, yes, but they'd be an 11-2 team without a single win over a ranked team in all likelihood. That SOS metric the SEC banged us all over the head with during the offseason? You can bet they'd be banging that drum loudly about Virginia. Can I interest you in San Diego State? I've argued The American was the likely home of our Group of Five representative all season, and the Mountain West did very little to change that this weekend. Boise State was upset at home by Fresno State, 30-7, to drop to 6-3 on the year. The Broncos can still win the Mountain West, but it's hard to believe a 9-3 Boise State that lost to South Florida -- a possible American champ -- will get the bid. The Broncos weren't alone, though, as UNLV lost at home to New Mexico, 40-35. The Rebels could still finish 10-2, but are likely too far out of the race in the Mountain West to have a realistic shot of winning the league. Their other loss is to Boise State, which kills the Rebels in any tie-breaker scenario. Besides, even if they somehow managed to win the MWC, they don't have an impressive win to boost their resume. Nobody will be impressed by a win over UCLA come December. But have you heard of San Diego State? While Boise and UNLV's hopes are done for, Sean Lewis' Aztecs are ready to volunteer. They've won six straight since a 36-13 loss at Washington State in September, and that includes a 34-0 win over Cal. While Cal isn't a resume-booster, beating an ACC team by 34 points could prove useful should the Aztecs finish 12-1 with a Mountain West title, picking up possible wins against Boise State along the way. Given how many teams are fighting at the top of The American, the Aztecs might benefit from carnage to the east if they can handle their business out west. Not a likely outcome, but the only one the Mountain West has left. Utah may have shot the Big 12's hopes of 2 teams I wrote after the first week of the season that the Big 12 looked like a one-bid league, and received a lot of angry messages from Big 12 country for it. So I'd like to take this moment to thank Utah for just about solidifying the Big 12 as a one-bid league late Saturday night. The Utes crushed Cincinnati 45-14. It was only Cincinnati's first loss in Big 12 play, but it was their second loss of the season. The only path the Bearcats have to the playoffs is by winning the Big 12. They still have to play BYU in the regular season, so that won't be easy. We also saw Houston lose at home to West Virginia 45-35. The Cougars were a two-touchdown favorite in the game, but the Mountaineers ran all over them. Now, like the Bearcats, Houston's only hope is to win the Big 12 because a 10-2 or 10-3 Houston team with a home loss to West Virginia and no wins over ranked teams is not getting an at-large. As for the Utes, they're now 7-2, but both their losses came to BYU and Texas Tech, which impacts them heavily in the Big 12 title race when it comes to potential tie-breakers. Their path is very slim. They'll need to win out, find their way into the conference championship game, and then win it. As for BYU and Texas Tech, both are very much alive, but they play each other this week. If the Red Raiders hold serve at home, that's a huge boost for them because their final two games are against UCF and West Virginia (a combined 2-9 in Big 12 play). If BYU loses, it still has games left against TCU and a road game against Cincinnati. A second loss isn't out of the question, which would mean the Big 12 Championship is 11-1 Texas Tech against either 10-2 BYU or 10-2 Cincinnati. In that case, things get complex, and it's too hard to go through all the hypotheticals. I think the ideal path for the league (not the teams) would be for BYU to beat Tech next week and win out. That way, no matter who BYU would play in the Big 12 Championship, if it lost, it would be a 12-1 team with regular-season wins over Utah, Texas Tech and Cincinnati. I can't imagine that resume being left out. The chances this all happens are another story, but we're just checking vibes right now, man. The Big Ten looks like a three-big league Ohio State and Indiana will be in the playoff. I say that with the utmost confidence. I'm not nearly as confident Oregon will be, though it seems more likely than not (a huge road test at Iowa looms). After that, who do you feel good about if you're the Big Ten? Michigan won on Saturday. It beat Purdue -- the Purdue that currently holds a 15-game Big Ten losing streak -- 21-16 at home in what was a wholly unimpressive performance. USC beat Nebraska 21-17, which is great for USC because it so rarely plays well on the road, but do the Trojans win if Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola isn't knocked out of the game in the third quarter with an ankle injury? The Cornhuskers led the game 14-6 at the time and were holding the USC offense in check. After Raiola left the game, Nebraska's offense couldn't muster anything, and USC found a way to score two touchdowns and win the game. Neither Michigan nor USC had the kind of game that inspires confidence in their chances of winning out. Not when Michigan has to play Ohio State and USC must play Iowa and Oregon. Speaking of Iowa, they're certainly in the running at the moment, but what if Iowa beats Oregon next week? It'd be great for the Hawkeyes, but think of the impact it has on Oregon's resume. The loss takes the Ducks out of the Big Ten race, meaning their best case would be a 10-2 record and a win over USC or Washington as their best win. How solid of an at-large case is that? Also, if Iowa wins, is it guaranteed to win at USC a week later? How about at Nebraska to finish the regular season? So, yeah, I think the Big Ten gets three in, but that's no guarantee. Right now four feels like you're asking a whole lot. Red River Reconsiderations: Texas, OU surge I am on the record here with my opinions about Oklahoma and Texas, but the actions of the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten have left me no choice. I must rescind previous statements and reinstate Oklahoma and Texas as playoff hopefuls. Sometimes life calls for us to do things whether we like to or not. Now, in their defense, both played well on Saturday. Texas took down a top-10 Vanderbilt 34-31 and showed signs of life on offense against a legitimate opponent for the first time all year. Small steps forward are steps forward all the same. Then there was Oklahoma, which went on the road and picked up an impressive win over Tennessee. The most impressive part was that the Sooners ran the ball well! Take out sack yardage, and they averaged 6.5 yards per carry, which is easily their best rushing performance of the season. Both teams have difficult schedules remaining and little margin for error, but the vibes are a changin', and they must be recognized. Rest In CFPeace: Hopes are dead The following teams saw their College Football Playoff hopes die this weekend. We honor their memory here, and do not expect to mention them in this column again until next season Hawaii (6-2 overall, 3-1 MWC) - The Warriors are still technically alive in the Mountain West after losing to San Jose State 45-38, but there's no way they're the top-ranked G5 champion if they somehow pull it off. Nebraska (6-3 overall, 3-3 B1G) - It doesn't feel right, because I firmly believe Nebraska hangs on to beat USC if Raiola doesn't get hurt, but the CFP gods can be cruel. A 9-3 Nebraska simply won't have the resume. Tennessee (6-3 overall, 3-3 SEC) - There are a few SEC teams that will have a legitimate case for an at-large if they finish 9-3, but the Vols aren't one of them. If they win out their only ranked win would possibly be Vanderbilt, but if the Vols beat Vandy, there's a chance Vandy falls out of the rankings because of it. UNLV (6-2 overall, 2-2 MWC) - There's no realistic path to a MW title, and even if the Rebels win it, they won't get the G5 spot. Wake Forest (5-3 overall, 2-3 ACC) - For those keeping track at home, Wake Forest beat SMU, which beat Miami, which beat Florida State, which Wake lost to 42-7 on Saturday. The Deacs didn't have much hope going into the week, but that loss snuffed out any that remained. Week 11 games with playoff stakes A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race BYU at Texas Tech Tulane at Memphis (Friday) Oregon at Iowa Navy at Notre Dame Texas A&M at Missouri College football grades: Notre Dame gets 'C' for ugly win, Indiana takes an 'A' on Week 10 report card David Cobb Current (Nov. 2) CFP projection Now that we've reached the time in the year when there will be CFP rankings, I want to make clear this is not a prediction of what we'll see Tuesday night, but rather a predicted outcome of what the final field will look like
