Copyright CBS Sports
Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week. A great example of a "spot" play is Vanderbilt's upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results, and injuries. You can bet college football games this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager: Just for clarification, I'll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play. Here are three strong betting spots for Week 10. Air Force Falcons -1.5 vs. Army Black Knights When you look at the service academies this season, the big difference for me is quarterback play. Navy and Air Force have elite option quarterbacks in Blake Horvath and Liam Szarka. Meanwhile, Army is still looking for the guy after losing Bryson Daily off last season's 11-win team. I'm not sure if Cale Hellums or Dewayne Coleman is the long-term answer at quarterback. We know Air Force can score. Szarka has been one of the most effective Group of Five quarterbacks since taking over the starting job. The sophomore has thrown for 1,058 yards, rushed for 725 yards, and accounted for 17 touchdowns. With Szarka under center, Air Force is averaging 35 points per game. The problem has been on the other side of the ball. The young Falcons' defense has struggled mightily this season, especially against the pass where Air Force ranks last in the country allowing 330 yards per game. However, Army isn't really built to exploit that weakness. The Black Knights will have success on offense, but not to the point of more balanced teams like Boise State, Hawaii and UNLV that hurt Air Force with a combined 1,144 passing yards. I like this spot for the Falcons at home over an Army squad that is in a transition year. Air Force will score and if it can get a couple of stops in the second half, I like it to get the win at home. Ole Miss Rebels -12.5 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Last week, I bet South Carolina +12.5 in what I thought was one of the best spots of the season. The Gamecocks hosted an Alabama team playing its fifth straight game after four wins over ranked opponents. It was South Carolina's Super Bowl and the Gamecocks not only covered easily, but they led late in the fourth quarter and nearly pulled the upset. This week, the Gamecocks are on the other end of the spectrum. A sexy preseason pick to make the College Football Playoff, South Carolina has stumbled to a 3-5 record and now is just trying to reach a bowl game. Throw in the fact South Carolina put everything into the Alabama game and blew an eight-point lead in the final three minutes, and this is a tough spot for the Gamecocks on the road. The reason I didn't bet Ole Miss yet is because the oddsmakers have baked all of this into the spread. I was hoping to get the Rebels around -10 or -11 but the number has been sitting at 12.5 all week. I do think Ole Miss wins this game rather easily, although I recommend waiting closer to kickoff to see if we get a better line with the Rebels. If not, the other option is betting the game live. Should South Carolina go up early, there is a good chance we will get Ole Miss under 10 points on the spread. I would be all over the Rebels in that scenario. SMU Mustangs +12.5 vs. Miami Hurricanes SMU almost stole a road win last week in a game when Wake Forest fumbled inside the 5-yard-line twice, including in the final two minutes when the Demon Deacons were about to take the lead. However, Wake Forest got the ball back and kicked a last-second field goal to win 13-12. I haven't been impressed with the Mustangs overall this season. Having said that, I can't get there with Miami at 12.5. I wrote on Sunday I expected this number to go down and it did. Earlier this week, the Hurricanes dropped to -10.5 before going back up to 12.5. My numbers have the line closer to the dip. I make Miami -10 here. As mentioned above, we saw a similar scenario last week with Alabama going on the road to face South Carolina as a double-digit favorite. The Gamecocks had been struggling this year but a win last week could have turned their season around. SMU is in the same situation. The Mustangs are talented but haven't lived up to their potential after reaching the College Football Playoff last season. A win on Saturday changes everything and puts SMU in the mix for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Remember, two of SMU's three losses are out of conference to Baylor and TCU. I think Miami might pull out a close win on the road, although 12.5 is simply too many points in this matchup. I would strongly consider SMU at that number. It's now or never for the Mustangs.
