By Rishi Ranjan Kala

Copyright thehindubusinessline

After relatively stable coal imports by India during June 2025, the cargoes have depressed in July despite a fall in production as ample reserves at thermal power plant (TPP) end depressed the appetite for imports.

According to the global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s coal imports fell by almost 18 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) and 12 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to 12.08 million tonnes (mt) in July 2025.

Alexis Ellender, Senior Lead Dry Bulks Insight at Kpler, noted that the fall in thermal coal shipments meant India’s cumulative coal imports retreated to a five-month low of 19.63 mt in July, down by 1.01 mt y-o-y, which is the first annual decline in trade since March 2025.

“Thermal coal imports dropped by 1.70 mt y-o-y to the lowest level since February at 12.08 mt. Despite a 12 per cent y-o-y fall in India’s domestic coal production in July, ample stockpiles provided a buffer that restrained import demand,” he told businessline.

Kpler’s coal analysts expect thermal coal imports to remain weak through the remainder of August and September, before picking up in the fourth quarter (October-December 2025), Ellender emphasised.

According to government data, coal imports by TPPs, including imported coal based (ICB) plants, fell by 24 per cent y-o-y to 4.02 mt in July 2025. During April-July 2025, the imports fell by 22 per cent y-o-y to 19.28 mt.

Coal consumption also declined during July 2025. According to the National Power Portal, TPPs cumulatively consumed 70.9 mt of coal last month, a decline of 2.6 per cent y-o-y.

While imported coal consumption fell by a steep 24.5 per cent y-o-y to 4 mt, the decline in consumption from domestic sources was at 9 per cent on an annual basis at 60.1 mt during July 2025.

India’s coal production and despatch declined for the second consecutive month in July 2025 as monsoon rains impacted mobility. Production declined by more than 12 per cent y-o-y to 64.86 mt in July. On a monthly basis, the output fell by almost 18 per cent. Pan-India coal dispatch during July 2025 declined by 9 per cent y-o-y and around 13 per cent m-o-m to 73.57 mt.

Historically, coal and mining operations enter the slow lane during the four-month monsoon season. They pick up from October to March in line with festival, marriage season and travel season.

Good and early rains across the country dampened power demand, which reflected in lower generation of power from coal. During July 2025, India’s coal-based power generation declined by almost 4 per cent y-o-y and 1.12 per cent m-o-m.

On the other hand, generation from renewable energy sources (RES) rose by about 14 per cent y-o-y and 0.7 per cent m-o-m during July. Hydro power generation also rose by 22 per cent y-o-y and 29 per cent m-o-m.

According to JM Financial, the PLF of coal-fired and gas-fired plants stood at 63 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively during July 2025 compared to 68 per cent and 14 per cent during July 2024, respectively.

Published on September 16, 2025