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By Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN (CNN) — Last November, Donald Trump won a return to the White House amid broad national dissatisfaction with the state of the country. A year later, preliminary CNN exit polling finds, the first major electoral tests of the second Trump presidency take place with voters expressing similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments despite the turnover in the Oval Office. Across four closely watched contests — the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral race in New York City and the redistricting-related Proposition 50 in California — majorities disapprove of Trump, with strong disapproval of his performance far outpacing strong approval. In Virginia, New Jersey and California, roughly half or more of the electorate sees their vote as sending a message to Trump. And that message is largely one of opposition, rather than support. At the same time, while all these places voted Democratic in last year’s presidential election, none currently give especially positive reviews to the Democratic Party. The party’s favorability rating hovers around the 50% mark in California and New York City — though the GOP is even more unpopular in those places. In New Jersey and Virginia, meanwhile, voters give roughly equal ratings to the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Views of the economy aren’t uniform. Most Virginia voters say that their state’s economy is excellent or good, even as a majority say that federal government cuts this year have had at least a minor effect on their family’s finances. Majorities in California, New York City and New Jersey, by contrast, call their state’s economic conditions not so good or poor. In each place, economic issues — taxes, cost of living, or the economy as a whole — dominate voters’ concern. CNN Exit Polls are from the Voter Poll conducted by SSRS, which combines thousands of pre-election interviews with those conducted at polling places to reflect the opinions of the full electorate. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results. Learn more about how this year’s surveys were conducted here. Here’s a look at some of the dynamics shaping up in each key race: Virginia In Virginia, the voters turning out to choose between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for governor are none too happy with the state of the nation. More than 6 in 10 say they’re dissatisfied with or angry about the way things are going in the country today. Roughly one-fifth of voters in the state say that someone in their household was employed this year by the federal government, or worked as a federal contractor, and most say they’ve been financially affected by recent federal cuts — although only about 20% say those have had a lot of effect on them. At the same time, Glenn Youngkin, the state’s outgoing Republican governor, gets majority approval, and most voters say their family is financially holding steady or getting ahead. Just over half of voters in the state say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, with a similar share saying that society’s support for transgender rights has gone too far. And 61% say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Overall, views of Spanberger are modestly more positive than views of Earle-Sears. Roughly 8 in 10 voters say that they’re casting a ballot for their candidate, not against her opponent — and that’s roughly consistent for supporters of both candidates. What’s driving voters? The plurality of Earle-Sears’ supporters say that it was most important to back a candidate who shared their values, and pick the economy and immigration as their top concerns in the state. Spanberger’s supporters are more divided on what candidate attribute matters most, but they’re clear in picking the economy as the state’s top issue, with health care ranking second. Relatively few voters on either side call education or crime their top issue. New Jersey New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, takes place in the shadow of two unpopular incumbents: Trump is disliked by voters, but the state’s outgoing Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, also sees an approval rating that’s slightly underwater. The lion’s share of Ciattarelli’s supporters — roughly half — say it was most important to them to pick the candidate who’ll bring needed change, while Sherrill voters largely say they were looking for a candidate who’s honest or trustworthy, will work for people like them, or shares their values. Sherrill’s favorability rating is modestly higher than Ciatarrelli’s, and more than half say her campaign against him was mostly fair, while voters are split on the fairness of Ciattarelli’s campaign. But Ciattarelli’s supporters are a bit likelier than Sherrill’s to say that their vote was mostly for their chosen candidate, rather than out of opposition to their rival. Voters call taxes and the economy the top issues facing the state, outpacing immigration, crime or health care. Roughly 7 in 10 voters say that property tax rates are a major problem where they live, and about 6 in 10 say the same of electricity costs. More than half also call political corruption in the state a major problem. New York City New York City’s multi-candidate mayoral race sees big differences between the bases of support for Democrat Zohran Mamdani, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Nearly 90% of Mamdani’s supporters say their vote is to support him, rather than to oppose his rivals. Sliwa’s voters also see their ballot as a statement of support. By contrast, Cuomo’s voters are closely split between voting to support him and voting to oppose the other candidates. Mamdani voters overwhelmingly call cost of living their top issue, while Cuomo voters are divided between cost of living and crime, and Sliwa voters largely see crime as the city’s biggest problem. And most of Mamdani’s supporters say it was most important either that their candidate would bring needed change, or that their candidate would work for people like them. Cuomo’s supporters broadly say they were looking for the candidate with the right experience, while Sliwa’s backers say they wanted either an honest and trustworthy candidate, or one who would work for people like them. Although most voters say they’re holding steady or getting ahead financially, nearly 60% call cost of living the city’s most important issue. And more than 7 in 10 say the cost of housing where they live is a major problem, compared to about one-third who say crime is a major problem. About 4 in 10 call the candidates’ positions on Israel a major factor in their vote. Roughly 1 in 6 voters say they’re casting their ballot in a mayoral election for the first time. California Voters in California are weighing a measure with national implications: Proposition 50, a ballot measure to temporarily enact a new congressional map drawn by Democrats in response to Republican-driven redistricting in other states. Roughly 7 in 10 say it’s very important to them which party controls Congress. An overwhelming majority of voters say they’d generally prefer state congressional district lines to be drawn by a non-partisan commission than the party in power. But those voting “yes” on the measure also broadly see it as a response to GOP-led redistricting elsewhere: around 80% say they see it as a way to counter the changes made by Republicans in other states, rather than the best way of drawing congressional districts. Overall, about half of California voters say that neither party is handling the redrawing of congressional district lines fairly, with the rest more likely to say that only the Democrats are taking a fair approach than that only the Republicans are. Around three-quarters of California voters say they’re dissatisfied with or angry about the way things are going in the U.S., and about half say they view their vote as a way to oppose Trump. Roughly 6 in 10 say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, and most say the governor should not cooperate with the Trump administration on its efforts. A majority also oppose the idea of the federal government sending the National Guard into major cities in California. More than 80% say that the cost of living in their area is unaffordable, and the economy far outpaces immigration, health care, crime or climate change as the top issue facing the state. The CNN Voter Poll conducted by SSRS was conducted from October 22nd -November 4th, and includes representative samples of voters in California, New Jersey and New York City. The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts each in Virginia and New York City and from 29 precincts in New Jersey. Respondents could complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effects, is expected to be approximately plus or minus 2.0 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City, and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.
