By Gabriel Amalu,The Nation

Copyright thenationonlineng

Few weeks ago, the former governor of Kaduna State, the petit Mallam Nasir El Rufai, inadvertently dramatized the unpreparedness of the opposition claiming to ready to oust President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) at the next general election in 2027. El Rufai, scrambled and kicked as some roughnecks helped him clamber onto an open lorry so he can speak at a campaign stop. His preferred candidate expectedly lost woefully at the by-election.

What caught my eye was the complete lack of preparedness by the campaigners, otherwise why didn’t they provide a means for El Rufai to climb the lorry with some modicum of dignity. The video of the incident showed El Rufai struggling like a bus conductor being helped onto the back of a truck with all the drama associated with it. For this column, what transpired showed how disorganized the opposition is; yet they won’t stop claiming their determination to win in 2027.

But as I write this piece, the so-called coalition of opposition has not yet determined under which party to contest the next general election. While El Rufai is claiming to be a member of the Social Democratic Party, (SDP), he campaigned for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the last by-election. Meanwhile leaders of SDP in Kaduna State have claimed that El Rufai is not a registered member of the party in the state. Also, national leaders of the party have said that El Rufai is an imposter as far as membership of the party is concerned.

Despite this confusion, El Rufai still claims boldly that the coalition is ready and prepared to oust the All Progressive Congress (APC). But what afflicts El Rufai, is also true of the other major opposition figures. Again, as I write, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the last general election, former governor, Peter Obi (Okwute), operates in a state of flux as far as his membership of a political party is concerned. There is no certainty which party Obi belongs to.

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While he has not formerly resigned from LP, the faction led by Nenadi Usman, which is loyal to him is locked in a mortal battle with the other, headed by Julius Abure for recognition from INEC. Yet, there is a significant third faction, led by Lamidi Apapa, which claims to be the authentic leadership of the party. At the last by-election, Obi campaigned for the candidate of ADC in Onitsha, Anambra State who failed woefully at the polls.

With respect to the upcoming off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State, no one knows with certainty which party, the former governor is campaigning for, between ADC and LP. Obi, an indisputable gentleman, is finding it difficult to rein in the combatants in LP, and that has weakened his base. Many have accused Obi of lacking the capacity to fight the inevitable battles associated with partisan politics in a developing democracy like ours.

The loquacious former actor, recently called to the Nigerian Bar, Kenneth Okonkwo, who spoke for Obi during the last general election, has left Obi and LP, because the former presidential candidate has not shown the grit to determine the boat he will be sailing with full force. Okonkwo, appears to know better than Obi, that no one will serve him the candidacy of a major political party, just because he is a nice guy.

What is true of El Rufai and Peter Obi is also true of the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, a former presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While he made a big drama of leaving the PDP, he has been mum about which party he has moved to. He is content at being touted as the big masquerade, behind the ADC, who engineered the forceful takeover of the party leadership, by former senate president, David Mark, and former governor of Osun, Rauf Aregbesola, as chairman and secretary respectively.

Atiku, and his fellow coalitionists or ‘collisionists’ (apologies to PBAT), are clearly unsure which boat to use for the sailing expedition. That explains why El Rufai, initially moved to SDP to await Atiku and company. But when it dawned on them that SDP may not be easily manipulated, they tried to form a new party, the All Democratic Alliance, (ADA), whose emoji, of Atiku, Obi, and others, dressed as dancing females went viral (Ada is a name for a female in Igbo). But unsure that ADA will scale through the hurdle of registration, they demurred. Now that ADA has been granted provincial approval, by INEC, will they be aroused again?

Meanwhile, some members of ADC are in court over the constitutionality of the takeover by the new executive which INEC recently recognized. On his part, Aregbesola, foisted as the party secretary has been upbeat that his new party will beat the APC and PDP hands down in the off-cycle Osun governorship election due later in 2026. How he intends to fend off the campaign against him, that he is a traitor, with the far-reaching consequences of such a polish in southwest, remains to be seen.

The latest entrant into the labyrinth of presidential aspirants is former president, Goodluck Jonathan. While he has not confirmed his interest, there are claims that he is consulting widely. Recently, he went to the Hill Top mansion of the former military president, Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB), perhaps to consult him. His aides have also aggressively argued that he is not constitutionally barred from contesting, despite the provisions of section 137(3), of the 1999 constitution (as amended). That section was enacted to stop the likes of Jonathan, from contesting the presidential election again.

Section 137 (3), provides that “a person who was sworn in as president to complete the term for which another person was elected as president shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term”. Former president, Jonathan is such a person, since after completing the term of office of late president, Umaru Yar’Adua, he was elected to such office in 2011. When Jonathan contested the 2015 presidential election, which he lost to President Muhammadu Buhari, that amendment made in 2017, was not yet in place.

So, the only issue which will be open to the courts to determine, should Jonathan run, is whether, the law contemplated a retroactive effect. While in jurisprudence, there is the general rule against retroactive legislation, or the principle of non-retroactivity, the courts may be minded to hear arguments on the doctrine of mischief rule. Mischief rule, allows a court to look at the mischief which a law was designed to remedy, rather than the literal wording of a legislation. What baffles this writer is how in such state of unpreparedness, the opposition is assiduously claiming to be ready to oust PBAT in 2027. Perhaps, they are merely waiting to spread lies and chaos, when they inevitably lose at the polls.