Copyright newsletter
By Fiona Norman, MD at www.fnresearch.co.uk If you still think Christmas is all about price wars and panic buying in December, you haven’t been paying attention. Our latest report at FN Research, The Christmas Checkout, reveals that festive spending habits in Northern Ireland have undergone a massive behavioural reset. And if you're running a business - retail or not - these consumer shifts should be on your radar now, not in December. Let’s start with the timing. 31% of consumers had already started their Christmas shopping by early October this year. That’s up from 22% in 2023. Add to that the 40% who begin in November, and you've got 71% of your market locked in well before their tree goes up. Leave your planning until mid-November and you’ve already missed the majority. But early doesn’t mean eager for tinsel. Our research shows that while people start buying earlier to ease stress and spread cost, they don’t want full-blown festive messaging until at least November. This means business leaders need to separate their operational calendar from their emotional marketing strategy - plan and offer early, but don’t push the cheer too soon. Value, too, has shifted in meaning. 55% of people plan to spend the same as last year, and just 6% plan to spend more. But, behaviour has changed too; people are buying fewer gifts, but with more thought and emotional weight. “Meaning over mass” is the mantra now. Experiences, personalisation, and quality time are in; generic products and mass deals are out. If your business model still prioritises volume and discounts, especially at Christmas, now is the time to adapt. This applies beyond retail - experience providers, hospitality venues, and even service businesses can take a cue here. Are you offering something memorable, intentional, or personal? If not, you risk being ignored. One striking trend is the expectation of digital convenience, even from small, local retailers. Consumers now want the soul of a St George’s Market stall with the speed and simplicity of Amazon. They’re still shopping local - our study found a strong preference for independent retailers due to trust, community value and authenticity - but they expect you to be online, too. Businesses that fail to invest in their digital presence risk missing the boat entirely. Cash is back in fashion, too. We know that more people are using cash as a way to help budget their finances. Several retailers reported a noticeable rise in physical money use at tills. The takeaway? If your business isn’t set up to accept or facilitate budgeting behaviours like cash payments, early returns policies, flexible deposit systems etc - you’re out of step with how your customers want to buy. And then there’s Black Friday. It remains a critical trigger, with 49% of consumers in NI actively seeking Black Friday deals in previous years. But not everyone loves it... especially smaller retailers. Some see it as a necessary evil, while others opt out altogether. If you're participating, make it count; if you’re not, be clear about why and offer something of real value in return. So what should leaders be doing? Plan early, but don’t push festive hype too soon. Redefine ‘value’ as thoughtfulness, quality and meaning. Invest in digital presence - regardless of size or sector. Design products or services that feel personal and experience-led. Make it easy for customers to feel in control - cash-friendly policies and clear return offers go a long way. If there's one thing that Christmas reminds us business owners; it's that sales data tells you what happened, proper research tells you what's going to happen next. Fiona is MD at FN Research - for a copy of the report, email fiona@fnresearch.co.uk
