By Laura Zhou

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China could build an artificial island at the fiercely contested Scarborough Shoal to shore up control of the surrounding waters if its newly established nature reserve fails to stem challenges by the Philippines, a prominent Chinese scholar on the dispute has said.
But a final decision would boil down to control, cost and confrontation, according to Wu Shicun of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, a government-sponsored think tank.
A major consideration would be “whether it serves to strengthen China’s assertion of sovereignty and effective administrative control”, Shanghai-based news site Guancha quoted Wu as saying in an interview published on Sunday.
“Should China determine that merely declaring territorial sea baselines and establishing a national nature reserve at Huangyan Island are inadequate to protect its sovereignty and exercise jurisdiction, then the logical consequence would be the construction of defensive facilities requiring a permanent land base,” he added, referring to the shoal’s Chinese name. The Philippines calls it Panatag Shoal.
“This, in turn, would necessitate land reclamation.”

By declaring a nature reserve on the shoal, Beijing was also seeking to limit the appearance of Philippine vessels in the disputed waters and reduce the substantial cost and burden of maintaining a constant, long-range law enforcement presence in the area, Wu said.
In response to the large presence of Philippine vessels, Beijing had deployed not only coastguard craft but also warships, he said, noting the cost had been high.
“If the aim is to counter … the Philippines and also to reduce the costs and burden of safeguarding our rights, then conducting land reclamation at Huangyan Island and building maintenance and fuel supply facilities, or simply building a port, would both eliminate the cost of returning to a home port and allow for a more timely and effective response to the Philippines’ infringements.”
Another consideration would be “threats from extraterritorial forces”, he added.
China has long accused the United States and its allies such as Japan, Australia and most recently Canada of “provoking trouble” in the South China Sea.
“I believe that the greater the involvement of external forces, the more China will perceive its assertion of territorial sovereignty over Huangyan Island and its exercise of maritime jurisdiction as being challenged, thereby increasing the likelihood of undertaking reclamation activities,” Wu said.
Beijing’s declaration of a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal drew strong criticism from Manila, which called the move “a clear pretext towards eventual occupation”.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said it was “another example of Beijing using pressure tactics to push expansive maritime and territorial claims, disregarding the rights of neighbouring countries”.

Echoing Wu, Hu Bo of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, another Chinese think tank, did not rule out the possibility of land reclamation at Scarborough Shoal.
“I think nothing is impossible, but it depends on the Philippines,” Hu said on Monday. “If the Philippines continues to provoke, everything is possible.”
Since the announcement of the 3,523-hectare (8,705-acre) nature reserve plans, there have been discussions in Chinese media about what Beijing could do next in the long-standing disagreement.
Under Chinese laws, the designated core zone of 1,242 hectares – or 35 per cent of the reserve – will be strictly off limits, while the 2,281-hectare experimental zone for coral reef protection could be entered only for “activities such as scientific experiments, teaching practice, inspections, tourism, domestication and breeding of rare and endangered wildlife”. Foreigners need permission from Chinese regulators to visit.
That would also mean Beijing could tighten its grip in the waters or even seek to “eliminate” fishing activities there and bar the government and coastguard vessels that accompany the Filipino fishermen, Wu said, “at least in the experimental zone”.
“Tolerating such actions would undermine the continuity, seriousness and authority of the newly established national nature reserve and could embolden the Philippines to engage in further infringements,” he added.
Beijing and Manila have been locked in some of the most intense confrontations to date in the South China Sea, where China’s vast claims are challenged by other rival Southeast Asian claimants such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Maritime confrontations surrounding the shoal – a triangle-shaped chain of reefs and rocks within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but also claimed by China – have been frequent and dangerous in recent months.
In August, a Chinese coastguard vessel appeared to collide with a People’s Liberation Army Navy ship while chasing a Philippine coastguard cutter. The Philippines released a video of the collision and said the Chinese coastguard vessel was heavily damaged.

Last week, Beijing said it had used water cannons and other “control measures” against Philippine boats, including one described as having “deliberately” collided with a Chinese coastguard vessel.
Philippine coastguard spokesperson Jay Tarriela later said on social media that a government fisheries vessel sustained significant damage and rejoined other Philippine boats that were on a mission to provide fuel and supplies to Philippine fishermen in the area.
On Thursday, Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Año said China was “under pressure” to defend its territorial claims in the South China Sea following reports that at least two Chinese crew members died after a collision last month. Beijing neither confirmed nor denied the report.
“They are trying to do things that would prevent, at all costs, our vessels from coming into the shoal,” Año said, according to the Philippine News Agency.
Soon after China forcibly took over Scarborough from the Philippines in a stand-off in 2012, Manila initiated proceedings against Beijing at an international arbitration tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands.
In 2013, Beijing started unprecedented dredging and artificial island building in the Spratly Islands.
Among its seven artificial islands, at least three of them were equipped with military and dual-use facilities, including airfields, missiles and radar installations.
The land reclamation has deeply unsettled the rival Southeast Asian claimants. It was not until 2015 that China halted its land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea.
In 2016, the tribunal in The Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines, though China said at the time it would neither acknowledge nor accept the verdict.