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The College Football Playoff selection committee certainly has its work cut out this week ahead of the release of its first top 25 rankings Tuesday night. With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, more than 30 Power Four teams still have a shot at earning a spot in the 12-team bracket. Those on cruise control -- like Indiana and Ohio State -- continue to move closer to securing their ticket. Texas A&M and Alabama are staking claims in the SEC, while Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas are jockeying to keep pressure on the frontrunners. Teams like Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and others face a narrowing path, where a single loss could be devastating. Meanwhile, crowded fields in the ACC and Big 12 are waiting for chaos to open the door. Virginia, Georgia Tech and Louisville are holding the edge in the ACC, while BYU, Texas Tech and Cincinnati are keeping the Big 12 race tense. With an apparently clear top three in the Big Ten, teams like Iowa, Michigan, USC and Washington could still vault into CFP contention with strong finishes in the final weeks. So, who's in control and who's running out of margin for error? This Week 11 edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report breaks down where the Power Four teams stand, organized by tiers: 🚀 On cruise control 🟢 In the driver's seat 🟡 Bumper-to-bumper 🔴 Sitting on the shoulder ⛔ Out of the race The latest report highlights 25 teams most likely to reach the CFP, spotlighting those in strong position while flagging programs running low on margin for error -- or already effectively out of the hunt. CBS Sports 136: Notre Dame crashes top 10 in college football rankings, resurgent Texas climbs Chip Patterson Let's take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of the selection committee's first top 25 rankings of the season. 🚀 On cruise control Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error No. 2 Indiana (9-0): The Hoosiers have never won at Penn State, so there's no doubt Curt Cignetti will remind his team of that history. That might be all the motivation Indiana needs to try and hang another 50-spot on a Big Ten opponent -- they're beating conference foes by an average of 31.3 points per game, on pace to be the most dominant margin by any FBS team in four years. No. 1 Ohio State (8-0): When it comes to overall dominance this season, the Buckeyes aren't far behind Indiana. And it could get even more lopsided with the next three opponents -- at Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers -- holding a combined 4-13 Big Ten record in 2025. No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0): The Aggies were in a similar spot last year -- unbeaten in the SEC, just a few wins away from a CFP bid -- before a November collapse. Although Texas A&M still has to play at Missouri and makes its first trip to Austin in 15 years to face rival Texas, the path looks far easier than it did to close out last season. No. 4 Alabama (7-1): Two of the last three SEC opponents are now led by interim coaches, and the Crimson Tide get to play the next three weeks at home in Tuscaloosa before closing out the regular season at Auburn in the Iron Bowl. No. 7 Ole Miss (8-1): It would take a major collapse for the Rebels to miss out on making their CFP debut at this point, with only Florida and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl left as the final tests of the regular season. 🟢 In the driver's seat Control their path, but still vulnerable -- one or two unexpected hiccups could matter No. 5 Georgia (7-1): The Bulldogs look the part of a CFP participant, but there's still work to do and a couple of prove-it tests left on the schedule -- Texas and rival Georgia Tech -- before Georgia can lock itself into the 12-team field. No. 6 Oregon (7-1): Here's a reality check: the Ducks have just one win against an FBS team currently above .500 (Northwestern). Their final four games are a gauntlet of bowl-eligible Big Ten foes, including three CFP hopefuls -- at Iowa (Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS), USC and at Washington. No. 8 BYU (8-0): The Cougars cleared their first major Big 12 test by toppling rival Utah in the Holy War, but November brings two tricky road hurdles -- at Texas Tech and at Cincinnati -- that could define their playoff fate. BYU was 9-0 last season before losing consecutive games in the final month. No. 9 Texas Tech (8-1): Saturday feels like a make-or-break moment for the Red Raiders as they host BYU. If Texas Tech wants to stay in control of its Big 12 title and CFP hopes -- and avoid leaving it to tiebreakers -- snapping its 13-year drought against AP top-10 opponents would be the statement win they need. No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2): The final stretch for the Fighting Irish includes a matchup against Navy, followed by three ACC opponents, two of which -- Stanford and Syracuse -- likely won't reach bowl eligibility. The road trip to Pittsburgh could be tricky, with the Panthers coming off a bye week to fine-tune their game and challenge Notre Dame. No. 13 Texas (7-2): The Longhorns have already beaten two AP top-10 opponents this season and still face two more high-stakes tests -- at Georgia and against Texas A&M in the finale. Lose both and a four-loss season knocks them out of CFP contention. Split those games, and a three-loss path to the CFP remains possible. No. 12 Virginia (8-1): The Cardiac Cavaliers notched their first double-digit win in six weeks and are the last unbeaten in the ACC. As the rest of the conference struggles, Virginia holds the inside track. But a single loss in the final three games could wipe out that edge. No. 14 Louisville (7-1): Louisville sits in a crowded ACC pack with just one conference loss -- its overtime defeat to Virginia. With key matchups ahead, the final road trip to fellow contender SMU could serve as a de facto elimination game. No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2): Few CFP contenders have a tougher finish than the Sooners. The showdown at Tennessee was a must-win. Check. But the final three tests -- at Alabama, Missouri and LSU -- are arguably just as critical if Oklahoma wants to return to the playoff for the first time since the 2019 season. No. 15 Vanderbilt (7-2): The Commodores went 2-2 in a four-game gauntlet against AP Top 25 teams. That could be enough to stay in the playoff conversation, provided Vanderbilt and quarterback Diego Pavia finish strong against their final SEC opponents -- Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee -- all currently .500 or below in conference play. 🟡 Bumper-to-bumper Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others No. 16 Georgia Tech (8-1): The Yellow Jackets' unbeaten streak is over, and so is their margin for error. Now part of that crowded ACC pack, Georgia Tech must navigate November to keep playoff hopes alive. There's a marquee chance in the final week to snap a seven-game losing streak to Georgia. No. 18 Miami (6-2): Mario Cristobal just can't seem to get out of his own way when it comes to consistency. In early October, Miami looked like one of college football's elite squads, but two losses in three weeks have the Hurricanes scrambling for a path back into CFP contention. No. 20 USC (6-2): Maybe Lincoln Riley is starting to change the narrative that USC can't win on the road. It's a win-out scenario for the Trojans, but tough tests remain with Iowa at home and a road trip to Oregon still looming. No. 17 Utah (7-2): The chances the final weeks of the season produce chaos in the Big 12 seem high. That's exactly what Utah needs with two conference losses to frontrunners BYU and Texas Tech -- who go head-to-head this Saturday. Still, it'll take major upsets to vault back into contention. No. 19 Missouri (6-2): The stakes for the Tigers and true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers are high. Missouri hasn't beaten a ranked SEC opponent in its last five tries. Facing a win-out stretch, Texas A&M and Oklahoma are looming obstacles the Tigers will have to take down to stay in the playoff conversation. No. 21 Michigan (7-2): The Wolverines enjoy a late bye before back-to-back road tests at Northwestern and Maryland. All of it leads to The Game against Ohio State, where a win could give Michigan a shot at the CFP, depending on how its resume compares to other two-loss contenders. No. 25 Cincinnati (7-2): There's still hope for the Bearcats to reach the Big 12 title game, even after their seven-game win streak was snapped. Beating BYU at home in three weeks would go a long way toward keeping those chances alive. SMU (6-3): Two of the three losses came outside the ACC, which puts SMU in that jam-packed conference title picture. The Mustangs host Louisville after a bye in three weeks with a chance to gain an upper-hand in potential tiebreaker scenarios. Iowa (6-2): Don't sleep on the Hawkeyes. The next two weeks could be monumental for Iowa, which hosts Oregon (Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS) before traveling to USC. Win both, and the resume takes a major leap. No. 24 Washington (6-2): The Huskies are right in that crowded mix as well. Their next two opponents -- Wisconsin and Purdue -- have yet to win a Big Ten game this season. Then comes a road trip to UCLA and a home clash with rival Oregon. If Washington closes on a five-game win streak, it would vault the Huskies back into serious CFP consideration. 🔴 Sitting on the shoulder Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos ACC: Duke, Pittsburgh Big 12: Arizona State, Houston, TCU Big Ten: Illinois SEC: LSU, No. 23 Tennessee ⛔ Out of the race Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff ACC: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest Big 12: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia Big Ten: Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
