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The vice-president of the Brahman Breeders Association has said that the government’s projected timeline for cattle herd growth is unrealistic under existing circumstances BONGANI MALUNGA A cattle farming expert and interim vice president of the Brahman Breeders Association, Molefi Seitei has called for caution on the government’s projections suggesting Botswana’s national cattle herd could surge from 1.7 million to 5 million within five years, saying such growth is far beyond what current conditions can support. According to the expert’s analysis, based on natural reproduction, mortality and off-take rates, the national herd could realistically expand only to around 1.8 to 1.9 million over the course of a year. CHALLENGING THE PROJECTIONS The assessment follows questions raised in Parliament by Botswana Congress Party (BCP) legislator Unity Dow, who challenged the practicality of the figures. The expert points out that only about half of the 1.7 million cattle are productive breeding females, meaning herd growth depends heavily on calving rates, feed availability and survival rates, all of which remain constrained by drought, input costs and grazing pressures. IMPOSSIBLE Seitei stated that the government’s projected timeline is impossible. Speaking on his personal capacity Seitei said, “It’s a good idea, a good dream but the timeline is too short. There are many impediments.” LOW CALVING RATE According to Seitei, with the national calving rate below 30%, Botswana can currently only produce 30% or less of its 1.7 million cattle each year. This translates to roughly 510,000 calves on the first year if we assume all the 1.7 million are breeding females, of which about half might be male, effectively reducing the number of productive female animals and further limiting the year’s output potential breeding females since not all 1.7 million are breeding females. OTHER FACTORS “Another aspect is the primary source of feed. In communal areas there is serious bush encroachment for cattle to be able to produce, they have to be at a good body score. The government has to start range management education for farmers and optimal land use” the farmer suggested. Seitei also factored in the emergence of sexually transmitted infections that lead to contagious abortion in cattle which result in stillbirths and infertility. “A nationwide campaign of nationwide testing would suffice. Most people tend not to test for diseases when purchasing cattle. Fertility tests also need to be factored in,” Seitei added. AFFIRMATION On Monday, the Minister of Health Dr. Stephen Modise affirmed the government’s commitment to achieving the 5 million cattle target, noting that farmers in Gantsi believe the goal could even be surpassed if sufficient semen straws and embryos are made available. “Semen straws and embryos are meant to improve the quality of our herd, not the quantity,” Seitei responded. “Embryos are expensive. This method has a low success rate of 60% and below, plus cattle have to be injected with hormones to synchronize and flush embryos. Farmers in Gantsi are in controlled areas/ranches, with having their calving rates at 70%. They cannot be a representation of all areas because they operate differently compared to farmers in communal areas where most of the national herd resides,” Seitei concluded.
