Copyright The Boston Globe
Not that Murray or Tagovailoa are playing well, or their teams aren’t thinking about moving on next year. But the Cardinals and Dolphins are most likely stuck with Murray and Tagovailoa in 2026 thanks to contracts that both teams surely regret. The Cardinals owe Murray $33 million next year. The Dolphins owe Tagovailoa $54 million. This isn’t salary cap money, which can be manipulated and massaged a million different ways. This is actual cash that is fully guaranteed for both players and can’t be nullified. The Browns are in the same situation with Deshaun Watson, owing him one more year at $46 million. From the outside, Murray’s days in Arizona look numbered. The No. 1 pick in 2019, he has a winning record in just one of six seasons with no playoff wins, and his career has been marked by unmet potential and a reputation for not studying enough and playing too many video games. The Cardinals went 2-3 in his starts this year, punctuated by an embarrassing, 22-21 loss to the Titans in Week 5. Murray has since missed the last three games with a foot injury, and Brissett has filled in admirably, going 1-2 with a big win in Dallas. The Cardinals are scoring 5 points more and gaining 70 more yards per game with Brissett under center. Gannon originally said the plan was for Murray to start against the Cowboys, after missing two games plus a bye week, but the QB was a surprise inactive. Two days later, Murray went on injured reserve, shutting him down at least four more games. Gannon said IR is best for Murray because “he’s not fully healthy, ready to go yet.” The reality, according to a league source, is that Gannon and the Cardinals thought Murray would be ready by the Cowboys game, and had grown frustrated with his wishy-washy demeanor about when he would return. Sending him to IR for four weeks ends the drama. It doesn’t seem likely the Cardinals are done with Murray, though. Instead, the situation will resolve naturally — Brissett will keep the job if he plays well, and Murray can get his job back in four weeks if Brissett starts to falter. Either way, the Cardinals will have a difficult time moving on from Murray in 2026. He is due $40 million next year, with $33 million of it already fully guaranteed. The other $7 million becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year in March. If the Cardinals decide to release Murray, they would want to do so before that fifth day, as his $19.5 million salary for 2027 also becomes guaranteed on that day. The Cardinals could try to trade Murray, but could struggle finding a taker for his contract. Their other two solutions would be to cut him a $33 million check and release him, or bite their lip and keep him for one more season. The Broncos paid Russell Wilson $38 million last year to go away and play for the Steelers, so there is some precedent for that option. But while teams generally don’t care about dead salary cap money, they usually don’t like writing $33 million checks for players they cut. Salary cap expert Jason Fitzgerald of overthecap.com thinks one solution could be for Murray to waive his 2027 guarantees in order to keep his job or facilitate a trade for ’26. “I think he would have a market if he agreed to that,” Fitzgerald said. The Dolphins are in a bigger pickle with Tagovailoa, who has a 2-7 record, is second in the the NFL with 11 interceptions (Geno Smith has 12), and has a troubling injury history. The Dolphins made a horrible decision to give Tagovailoa a giant contract in July 2024, when they still had a year to go until free agency. That will especially be driven home in 2026. The Dolphins surely would like to move on, but they owe Tagovailoa $54 million. It’s an obligation they can’t avoid, and it’s definitely not a contract they can trade, as it’s hard to fathom any team wanting Tagovailoa for anything more than a few million. Tagovailoa also has $99 million in dead cap money next year, so the only realistic way for the Dolphins to move on would be to make him a post-June 1 release to split it into $67 million in 2026 and $32 million in ’27. And they still would have to pay him $54 million cash, which would break Wilson’s record payout by $16 million. “Tua’s contract is a mess,” Fitzgerald said. “I think they are stuck until 2027 with him. Not sure if that’s the worst contract ever, but it was pretty surprising for a somewhat limited player with such an extensive injury history.” The Dolphins’ best scenario may be finding a team willing to take on a small sliver of Tagovailoa’s contract — say, $5 million or so — but that seems unlikely given his struggles and concussion history. More likely, the Dolphins have one more year left with Tagovailoa. A few notes on the big trades swung by the Jets before last week’s deadline: ▪ Murray and Tagovailoa have contracts that are hard to trade, but Sauce Gardner sure didn’t. The Jets just signed him to a fat new contract in July that was touted as a “four-year, $120 million extension,” but was really a six-year, $145 million deal that was designed to be easily moved. The contract came with just a $13.75 million signing bonus and reasonable salaries of $1.25 million and $25.5 million in the first two years. The Colts got a Pro Bowl cornerback locked in to a reasonable contract, and the Jets are left with only $8.7 million in dead cap space this year, and $11 million in 2026 — two numbers that are more than reasonable. New Cowboys defensive tackle Quinnen Williams also leaves the Jets with just $13.2 million in dead cap this year and $9.8 million next year. By contrast, the Jets are carrying Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at $21 million this year and $35 million next year. ▪ The Jets did well in collecting three extra first-round picks plus a second-rounder, but this is an organization that is perpetually tearing down, never building. Williams is 27 and Gardner is only 25, and could’ve been building blocks for the next several years. The Jets have talent, and could be decent if they could just find a quarterback. Instead, they are tearing down to the studs yet again. Coach Aaron Glenn summed it up perfectly with a quote he probably wants back. “I want this to be a team the fans are proud of,” Glenn said. “I never said they were going to be proud of them right now. At some point, I want them to be a team the fans are proud of.” ▪ A rarity for Williams: He will have a bye in consecutive weeks — Week 9 with the Jets, and Week 10 with the Cowboys. An NFL spokesman said the league has no way of checking if that has ever happened before. Williams gets a $64,705 bonus for each game he is active, and it will be interesting to see if the Cowboys make him whole for the one game he won’t get. Gardner had a bye in Week 9, will play in Germany on Sunday, then will have another bye in Week 11. ▪ Why did the Cowboys trade Micah Parsons, only to spend big assets in a trade for Williams? A league source said Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’s scheme revolves around having two stout defensive tackles, which he now has in Williams and Kenny Clark, acquired in the Parsons trade. When he was coordinator in Indianapolis, he had DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, and Denico Autry. ▪ The Colts announced Gardner will wear No. 1, and receiver Josh Downs will switch to No. 2. League rules used to prevent players from changing numbers midseason except for special circumstances, but this past March the football operations department recommended a change in protocol. There’s money to be made. “After discussion with the Competition Committee, as well as with member clubs, the former competitive concerns related to scouting are no longer applicable to the same extent,” football operations wrote. “In some cases, allowing a player to change his number for an incoming player may have business and marketing-related benefits. For these reasons, the Committee supports the recommendation that NFL Consumer Products, rather than NFL Football Operations, review in-season requests to change jersey numbers due to trades or other special circumstances.” A few notes in advance of Sunday’s Patriots-Buccaneers game in Tampa: ▪ The Buccaneers’ defense ranks No. 7 in blitz rate this season (35 percent), creating a league-high 10 unblocked sacks, and has been especially aggressive on third down with a 42.3 percent blitz rate that ranks third-highest. But the Buccaneers might want to back off a bit Sunday. Drake Maye has a sterling 125.6 passer rating against the blitz (third-best), with seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 73 percent completion. Maye has been especially strong on third-down blitzes, with the third-highest completion percentage (74) and second-highest passer rating (134.6). Either way, expect Maye to be on the move a lot, and/or to get the ball out quickly. The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most pressure (39.9 percent), while the Buccaneers defense generates the fourth-most (39.8 percent). ▪ Two other Maye nuggets to consider from Next Gen Stats: The Patriots have allowed their second- and third-highest pressure rates the last two weeks vs the Browns and Falcons, with Maye taking six sacks and throwing an interception in each game. Maye also might want to dial back the deep ball. He had his highest deep-ball percentage last week vs. the Falcons (17.2 percent), yet produced his second-lowest Expected Points Average (-0.9) of the season, and his first negative “completion percentage over expected” of the season (-0.1 percent). ▪ The Patriots are spending $43 million in cash and using $28 million in salary cap space on defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, and it is money well spent. The defense is No. 1 against the run and No. 4 in run average (3.6), and Williams and Barmore are thriving as pass rushers, even though Williams has only 3½ sacks in nine games and Barmore has none. They are the most productive duo in the NFL, each recording 30 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats, tied for second-most among defensive tackles (the Colts’ DeForest Buckner has 31). Williams has the highest pressure rate among defensive tackles (14 percent), and Barmore is second (13.8 percent). The Panthers went into Lambeau Field last week and emerged with a surprise 16-13 victory despite being 13-point underdogs. Packers linebacker Micah Parsons, though, wasn’t impressed. The Panthers gained just 265 total yards, and quarterback Bryce Young was a modest 11 of 20 passing for 102 yards and an interception. “Any time people are being annoying and they don’t want to come and play fast football and just (play) keep-away football, like try not to make mistakes, it’s boring football for everyone,” Parsons said. Parsons especially was bored — it was the first time in his career he was held without a QB pressure. Credit Panthers coach Dave Canales for coming up with a winning formula, even if it wasn’t pretty. “We had a game plan to get the ball out quickly, and Bryce accomplished that for us,” Canales said. It feels like the Raiders, 2-7 after Thursday’s ugly 10-7 loss to the Broncos, are on the verge of unwinding all of Tom Brady’s first signature moves since gaining a voice in the front office. Chip Kelly, the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the league at $6 million, probably won’t make it past the season with Las Vegas ranked No. 30 in points. Quarterback Geno Smith might get benched soon so the Raiders can avoid an $8 million injury guarantee next year and prepare to move on. And given owner Mark Davis’s track record, don’t be shocked if coach Pete Carroll is the Raiders’ fifth one-and-done coach in the last 20 years (and second in a row, after Antonio Pierce) … The GOAT of kick blocking struck again last week when Texans defensive tackle Denico Autry blocked the Broncos’ 53-yard field-goal attempt. Autry has 13 blocked kicks in 12 NFL seasons, including two in three games this year. He trails only former Lions defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (17) in blocked kicks since those stats started to be kept in 1991 … The NFL tried to suspend Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu one game for his third hip-drop tackle of the season, but hearing officer Derrick Brooks (the former Buccaneers linebacker) reduced it to a $100,000 fine, allowing Luvu to play Sunday against Detroit and saving him over $400,000. Hearing officers like Brooks are appointed jointly by the league and NFL Players Association … 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t exactly inspire confidence that receiver Brandon Aiyuk will play this season after suffering a serious knee injury last year. All Shanahan would offer is that he’s “pretty confident” that Aiyuk is “going to eventually play,” or “at least open up his practice window.” There’s no telling what would have happened had Aiyuk accepted a trade to New England last year, but it feels like the Patriots dodged a serious bullet … Falcons cornerback Mike Hughes covered 77.2 yards last week to chase down Patriots wideout DeMario Douglas on a 58-yard reception, the longest tackle in Week 10 by over 10 yards. The Patriots scored two plays later, anyway … The 4-4 Vikings are the only .500 team … You can tell the 2-7 Dolphins are getting serious — they removed pop-a-shot from the locker room … Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen is a wrecking ball, leading the NFL with 25 quarterback hits before Thursday night’s game, eight more than anyone else. He added three vs. the Raiders … Kicker Parker Romo was waived after his missed extra point cost the Falcons the game in their 24-23 loss to the Patriots. Veteran Zane Gonzalez becomes the Falcons’ third kicker this year … The Bengals defense is just the 20th since the 1970 merger to allow 500 yards in consecutive games. The longest streak in NFL history is three games, and has been done just once — by the 2018 Bengals.
