By Contributor,Trefis Team

Copyright forbes

Cancer detection and screening as a treatment for malignant cells with a biopsy or testing caused by carcinogens and genetics with a cancerous cell as an immunotherapy symbol as a 3D render.

Let’s start with something remarkable. Natera (NASDAQ: NTRA) just marked its 10th anniversary as a public company, and what a journey it has been. The stock has delivered nearly 10x returns, rising from its $18 IPO price to around $170 today. Even more impressive, revenues have also expanded about 10-fold from $190 million to $2 billion. And the momentum hasn’t slowed — revenue growth over the last twelve months was a stellar 44%.

So, what’s fueling this growth? It comes down to one word: intelligence — specifically, medical intelligence. Natera has placed itself at the forefront of molecular diagnostics, especially in cancer detection and monitoring. Think of them as medical detectives, helping doctors detect issues at the genomic level before they become life-threatening emergencies.

Their flagship product, Signatera, is a game-changer. This personalized tumor-informed test uses a simple blood draw to detect circulating tumor DNA and monitor for molecular residual disease across multiple cancer types, including breast, lung, ovarian, colorectal, and bladder cancers. This isn’t just an incremental improvement — it’s a revolutionary technology transforming how oncologists monitor their patients.

But what makes their technology stand out? Its beauty lies in its simplicity and precision. Rather than invasive procedures, patients undergo a simple blood draw — a liquid biopsy. But this isn’t an ordinary blood test. Natera’s platform can detect tiny fragments of tumor DNA circulating in the bloodstream, offering doctors unprecedented insight into cancer progression and recurrence risk. Beyond Signatera, Natera also offers Altera for genomic profiling and Empower for hereditary cancer screening — creating a comprehensive suite that covers the entire cancer care spectrum.

Before we dive into Natera stock’s specific metrics, it’s worth noting an important reality: investing in high-growth companies like Natera comes with volatility. While the upside can be significant, the ride is often bumpy. If you want high-quality growth with lower volatility than a single stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark — a blend of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes — with returns exceeding 91% since inception. This diversified approach provides exposure to high-quality growth names while managing single-stock risk. On a separate note, see – What’s Happening With ABBV Stock?

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Now, let’s explore why Natera’s story is so compelling.

How Big Could Natera Realistically Become?

Here’s where things get exciting. In the latest quarter, Natera processed over 850,000 tests, generating $546.6 million in revenue. About 22% of these tests were oncology-related, and this segment is growing at 50% year-over-year. This is the key engine driving future growth.

Let’s zoom out. Cancer recurrence is every survivor’s worst fear, yet traditional monitoring often leaves patients waiting months for clarity. Nearly 19 million U.S. cancer survivors live in constant uncertainty between scans. They need better tools to track their cancer status, representing a massive market that will require sophisticated monitoring for decades to come.

Now, we believe Natera can sustain 25% annual revenue growth over the next few years. That would boost revenue from about $1.7 billion last year to around $7 billion in 2030 — a 4x increase. For context, they’ve grown revenue at an average of 40% over the past three years, so 25% is actually not that aggressive.

You might ask — is there room for a company this size to keep growing? Absolutely. The cell-free DNA testing market — which includes what Signatera does — is expected to almost double from $11 billion today to around $20 billion within five years. [1]

Natera isn’t just riding this wave — they’re helping shape it. Consider the competition: Roche leads diagnostics with $16+ billion in revenue, followed by Danaher at $10 billion and Abbott at $9 billion. Natera’s $2 billion shows they’re still in the early innings of their growth story.

The $5 Billion Incremental Revenue Opportunity

The growth path breaks down into several key areas:

Oncology Market Expansion ($2-3 billion): Signatera could capture a much larger share of the global oncology testing market – expanding beyond current cancer types.

International Scale-Up ($1-2 billion): With 98% of revenue from North America, international markets like Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America present enormous opportunities as adoption accelerates globally.

Adjacent Market Entry: Areas like early cancer detection, pharmacogenomics testing, inherited disease screening, and organ transplant monitoring are natural extensions of their core platform.

Volume and Penetration Growth: Even within current markets, deeper physician adoption, broader insurance coverage, and standard-of-care integration offer big upside.

The Path to $500

How could $7 billion in revenue translate to a $500+ stock price? The math is compelling. If Natera hits $7 billion while maintaining its current price-to-sales multiple of 13x, the stock could reach about $700. Even with multiple compressions to 10x, that’s still well above $500.

This assumes minimal dilution, which is reasonable given its cash-generation potential at scale. Yes, the company is currently loss-making, but as revenue grows, margins should turn positive. Natera’s net income margin has improved from -75% in 2021 to -13% now.

Diagnostic market penetration takes time. For Natera to be valued at $50B, $100B, or even $200B (vs. $23B today), investors must think long-term — 2030 and beyond — with billions of tests processed annually worldwide. By 2035, liquid biopsies could be as routine as cholesterol tests.

Still, several factors must align:

Reimbursement Expansion: Broader insurance coverage, especially for oncology, would expand both market size and pricing power.

Clinical Evidence: Building robust data to support wider test adoption.

Operational Scaling: Growing test volumes while protecting gross margins.

Technology Leadership: Sustained innovation in cell-free DNA analysis.

Strategic Execution: Flawless execution across multiple growth levers, including M&A.

Risks That Could Derail the Bull Case

Despite the opportunity, key risks remain:

Reimbursement Challenges: Pushback or slow approvals from insurers could limit growth.

Competitive Pressure: Larger players like Roche, Abbott, and Danaher could erode market share (compare financial strength).

Regulatory Hurdles: New requirements could slow product rollout.

Technology Disruption: Rapid innovation in diagnostics could outpace Natera’s platform.

Adoption Speed: International adoption may be slower than expected.

Economic Sensitivity: Downturns could curb non-essential testing.

Market Risk: NTRA stock has underperformed its peers during downturns.

The Bottom Line

Natera is a genuine growth story driven by breakthrough technology addressing massive markets. It has scaled impressively while sustaining momentum that most CEOs would envy. The path to $500+ per share is mathematically feasible — but execution must be flawless. For risk-tolerant investors, this offers high growth with meaningful upside — balanced by real execution and market risks.

For a more diversified approach, the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000. Its quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap names has delivered strong returns while cushioning losses in down markets (RV Portfolio metrics).

The opportunity is real — the question is whether Natera can execute and whether investors can stomach the volatility for what could be a rewarding ride.

1. Cell-Free DNA Testing Market Size and Share, Mordor Intelligence

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